[Jim_H]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/WinterUpdate_2012.pdf

Some precipitation totals since October. Not as dry as I thought it was.

Changed the thread title. Sick of winter and the thread is half dead anyway.

[azbackpackr]

It's not a very exciting winter as far as weather, that's why the thread has gone blah. If there was a snowstorm dropping five feet on Flag like a couple years ago, and rain, and swollen creeks, you had better believe people would be posting about it.

[chumley]

The thread will never die. As Liz said though, there's not much to talk about. Oh wait, the sun is being filtered through some wispy clouds right now! :sarcasm:

[hippiepunkpirate]

Sustained a minor sunburn yesterday. I don't recall ever getting a sunburn in February before.

[paulhubbard]

Welcome to "The Surface of the Sun" Jake!

[Jim_H]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=fgz&iname=Active_Screen1L&size=1&force=no
This storm that might come through looks a lot like all the others that affected our area and completely missed California. Bad for them, and I don't know how it will affect me in Utahizona, or you folks in Arizona. Either way, the wind will be up . Maybe southern AZ will get some rain and snow?

The Sacramento NWS has this story posted:http://newweb.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=sto&iname=Active_Screen2L&size=1&force=no
It looks like they are being optimistic for a wet, or at least not totally dry March, after a dry February. With about 5 weeks before the traditional peak of the winter snow pack, and most of the Sierra at 30%, they're in bad shape. Hope California produce isn't too expensive this year.

[Jim_H]

I would prefer rain for me, but the forecast for 10,000' on the Peaks is for roughly a foot of snow. Not bad at all, given the winter so far. I'm still hoping for a warm-up like we had in 2007, but I guess one more half decent storm isn't too bad. The western Rim never had the major winter storm with 3 feet of snow on the Peaks and 2 feet in Flagstaff, but the year can redeem itself by being 70 degrees by the middle of March (out here at least) and virtually free of wind for most of the coming spring (as I remember 2007 to be). Dust storm out here today.

[hippiepunkpirate]

It's windy here too. Well more like breezy, but definitely windier than normal. There's a dust advisory out right now too.

[chumley]

Snowbowl just posted that they are expecting 11-17" overnight. I think that's a little bit aggressive, though there is one point forecast (elev. 11,493) that does say that.
The lower elevations (10,006) only say 9-13", and at 8594 ft only 5-9" forecast.

Would I love to see over a foot at midway? Sure. But the way this winter has gone, I'm leaning toward a realistic morning total around 6". I hope I'm wrong. I have a tentative skiing day planned for Wednesday!

[chumley]

Hey look! 6" at Snowbowl. Who coulda guessed that?

[Jim_H]

10"+ reported now. Really windy out here, so if it is on the Peaks, forget it. Still, this might be the biggest storm of the season for the Peaks.

[Jim_H]

Cold last night, wide spread single digits and even 1 reported negative low temperature in Bellemont. Really, that is hardly impressive, and this is the first year since I have been out here that Flagstaff did not have an official low, for the November to February period, which was below zero. The low this winter so far was zero, and most were in the teens and twenties. Mild compared to last year. This provides me with hope for a warm spring, with little wind. Here's hoping for 70 in Flagstaff and a little warmer out here by the middle of March.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=fgz&sid=FGZ&pil=PNS

[chumley]

It was 7 in flag when i got up this morning. Skiing was great but the base was minimum 3 feet less than I have ever seen it at this time of year. Looking north and west there was basically no snow on the open areas around Kendrick. The cut of the humphreys trail was clearly visible traversing the mountain, also something that is uncommon at this time of year.

[Jim_H]

I woke up to some snow up here. Maybe 1 to 2 inches total, but it is very wind blown, so it is hard to tell. It will melt, so it's OK.

I'm surprised Snowbowl has managed to stay open this season. They can probably make another month and have a standard length of operating season. I don't think it will happen, but one big storm would carry them through. Amazing we never really got a "major winter storm" with lots of pacific moisture and heavy snow. For as weak as the winter has been in the region, I am still looking forward to it ending. Even with my past enjoyment of it, I am just not a big fan this year.

[chumley]

NWS Flagstaff:

A strong and cold winter storm system from the Pacific will begin to affect northern Arizona over the weekend—continuing into next week. This storm has the potential to be the largest winter storm of the winter season so far. Strong southwest winds 20-35 mph with gusts 40 to 55 mph are possible Saturday and Sunday. Potentially heavy and prolonged rain and snow will develop Saturday night through early next week—with heavy accumulations possible at the higher elevations. Snow levels will eventually fall to most valley floors of northern Arizona.

Part of me is and the other part of me says I'll believe it when I see it.

So I'll just stick with

[Outdoor Lover]

Let's hope they are right for a change....

[Patrick L]

I will be extremely happy if we can get some rain down here. x2

[Nighthiker]

Looking at dates for a camping trip (popup) in Southern Arizona next month, looks like the first week or the third week and perhaps one of the state parks. Was wondering if it would be to warm, cycling in the am and hiking in the pm. With regards to the weather outlook for this weekend and into next week, coworker is planning on backpacking the National Trail. They are in Southern Arizona this week and were planning on starting the backpacking trip on Sat.

[chumley]

Here's a good resource. Choose a location near where you plan on going. I recommend the daily/monthly normals, and the daily extremes. Because the weather in April can vary so much, it's good to see the extremes as compared to the normals. But it will give you an idea of what you might encounter.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=twc

[Jim_H]

I just hope the snow line is above my house and town, say at 6,000'. I've had more than my fill of winter. Oh, how I love being in the low desert. Still, I know that the desert and all of SE AZ can use what ever they get. A good 1/2 to 1 inch or rain and snow water eqiv. down here would probably be great. I want to come back down here later next month or in early May, but it would be nice if everything wasn't dry and crispy as it was last year.