[azbackpackr]

It's VERY windy here today, and I have a road biking date with a pal later on. Sheesh, we really picked a great day for it.

Yesterday was about perfect and I went hiking--but we have had very few of those perfect days this summer, so far. It has been cold, windy, rainy, you name it, but not shorts weather very often. It is starting to get old! (whine whine)

[chumley]

For me, the Monsoon is here...

... when the temperature drops 20 degrees in 10 minutes, the wind roars and brings with it a teeth-gnawing, eye-stinging wall of sand, only to be put down with a deluge of rain that lasts for 15 minutes and floods the entire yard. All the while, I enjoy sipping a glass of scotch on the patio.

[joe bartels]

... when the temperature drops 20 degrees in 10 minutes, the wind roars and brings with it a teeth-gnawing, eye-stinging wall of sand, only to be put down with a deluge of rain that lasts for 15 minutes and floods the entire area. I rush out to South Mountain, frolic in glee searching for those rarest of rare waterfalls in the desert (I friggen love it!)

[Jim_H]

...when the clear, dry, warm or "summer" weather on the Peaks ends and climbing will usually be interrupted by rain, lightning, hail, cold, and wet conditions, or everyday from 1030AM on it is clouded over and it never seems to be warm for very long before it gets cold with rain. Even though its not actually from a monsoon, the monsoon type conditions started back around May 15.

It was looking like we were about to start the warm June dry season up here this week. Now a cut off low is supposed to produce a chance for rain, and continued below normal temperatures. We've barely been above 70 most days if we are lucky to get there, and I don't know if we will ever reach 80 this year. I thought it was weak that we never hit 90 last year, I didn't think it could actually be worse a year later. Early May was so promising, what happened, where did we go wrong?

[Jim_H]

I was wrong, we have hit 80, and 82 in fact, but its been a while. The warmest its been this month is 76, but I recall it being very windy that day.
This digest should give you an idea of what thing have been like up here on the plateau. It has been rather nippy for the last couple of weeks.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[cathymocha]

When I lived in PV, and noticed the roiling skies in the East Valley and a certain feel and smell to the air, I would go up the south side of Mummy mountain and watch from the top as the storm transversed the Valley. Awesome sight.

[chumley]

I rush out to South Mountain, frolic in glee searching for those rarest of rare waterfalls in the desert (I friggen love it!)

Yeah. That's tough to beat. But next time bring along a glass of scotch too. Best of both worlds!

[azbackpackr]

... Early May was so promising, what happened, where did we go wrong?

Global warming!

[chumley]

Assuming it doesn't hit 100 in PHX today (and it seems to be a safe bet at this point in the day), it will be the first time since 1913 that PHX has gone 13 consecutive days in June without reaching 100 degrees. The all-time record, 17 consecutive days in June, is possible if tomorrow manages to stay below 100 since cooler weather is expected on Friday into the weekend. Either way, I'm loving it here in the desert. My trips up north have been a little chilly though ... but you won't hear me complaining about that either!

[Jim_H]

... Early May was so promising, what happened, where did we go wrong?

Global warming!

Seems like global cooling to me. Someone get Al Gore on the phone.

[writelots]

Global Climate change my patootie. (Not that I don't believe it's real, I just don't blame every blip on it!)

I think what's happening is this: a whole bunch of know-it-all yahoos (present company included) decided they knew enough about the world to predict weather in Arizona in Summer. Irritated, the World decided to prove them all wrong.

Thank goodness for the proving wrong. I may miss my lovely monsoons, but I'm loving not having skin missing from my hands when I leave them on the steering wheel too long!

[jeffmacewen]

Any natural system never follows a straight line on a graph when it comes to change. Along the way there will be dips and jumps as things move in and out of equilibrium, especially with something this complex.

[azbackpackr]

Well, we did change the road bike ride plans to a mtn. bike ride in the forest, out of the wind. Leaving now, will write it up later.

[chumley]

Any natural system never follows a straight line on a graph when it comes to change. Along the way there will be dips and jumps as things move in and out of equilibrium, especially with something this complex.

There is no equilibrium. The only constant is change.

[jeffmacewen]

This thing is such a complex system that it's even hard to get your point across in an uncomplicated fashion!!!

[Rob del Desierto]

Another monsoon-ish day up here today, with rain, thunder, lighting, and deluge-rain. Clearing for the moment, but will not doubt be back later this evening.

[chumley]

Yeah I saw NWS issued a flood warning for Antelope Canyon a couple of hours ago...

[Jim_H]

So the monsoon started pretty good last Wednesday up here in Flag with a storm on the Peaks while I was out, and then a series of storms that affected parts of Flagstaff and surrounding areas from Thursday through Saturday. I think the NWS was saying that Wednesday July 1 was the start of Monsoon season using the 3 days of 55 degree dew points in PHX.

We've had a break in the early season, and its been dry again since Sunday. Today was fantastic weather. We might get a surge over the next few days, but its supposed to dry back out again by Sunday.

[joe bartels]

I think the NWS was saying that Wednesday July 1 was the start of Monsoon season using the 3 days of 55 degree dew points in PHX.

What happened to June 15th or whatever they decided on last year? Or was that some other agency?

[Jim_H]

The June 15th thing was sort of like declaring the Christmas season as starting December 1st, it is just an arbitrary date that has no relationship to when the actual monsoon starts. I think the NWS now says that Monsoon season runs June 15th to September 15th, or 30th. We all know that the monsoon isn't a solar season like our traditional seasons, but it comes when it comes. When the winds shift from the westerly's to a southern and southeastern flow and the dew points start to rise with the influx of sub tropical Mexican moisture, that's when the monsoon arrives.

The old rule of 3 consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or greater to signal the Monsoon was what was given in the paper a few days ago. I guess the NWS isn't using that anymore, but if it is 90 degrees up here and we have 5% humidity and its July 4th- as it was in 2007- well thats not monsoon season to me.