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End of the monsoon season?

End of the monsoon season?

Postby base871 » Sep 04 2010 3:24 pm

So I know its "officially" over Sept 30th, but anyone think sooner this year? I'm guessing Phoenix might get one more storm, and that will be it. Any thoughts?
"The Edge. There really is no honest way to explain it because the only people who know where it is are those who have gone over." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby paulhubbard » Sep 04 2010 3:29 pm

A storm would be nice, but I'll just settle for anything under 100!
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby joe bartels » Sep 04 2010 4:19 pm

paulhubbard wrote:I'll just settle for anything under 100

amen, hallelujah, love is wild and pass the salt

Either the city drains have greatly improved or I barely noticed any lethal storms this year.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Jim_H » Sep 04 2010 4:21 pm

A redundant topic! Blasphemy!


I think it's over now, in fact, I think it was over sometime before I returned from my 3 week trip last Saturday. The weather last weekend was reminiscent of an early autumn storm. It was dry, cool, and windy. I guess we could get a resurgence, but the forecast through to the 11th is not indicating any monsoon surges into northern Arizona or Flagstaff, so I believe it is finished. I wish we would get some moisture before it gets cold (at night) and the summer growing season is over, but I doubt it will happen.

This was a weird monsoon season. It was late, and it was very strong when here. We had a couple of weeks of miserable overcast skies with heavy rain. So far, it has been the 6th wettest on record in Flagstaff, yet is has been very dry as well. For the last couple of weeks the area around town has seen next to no rain, and the grasses and sensitive plants are showing the moisture stress. The last few days feel like late June. It's great weather for sure, but it isn't how I recall the normal monsoon seasons of 2006, 2007, and 2008 ending. Even last years exceptionally dry monsoon-or failure there of-had a wet Labor Day period. Imike did Humphrey right before we got some strong storms on the Peaks.


Funny thing about 2010. This is the wettest year I have experienced since I moved here just over 4 years ago, yet it has been very dry when it wasn't snowing or raining. It was odd that we basically had two wet periods: January when we had the series of storms come through, and then late July and early August. Outside of those two it hasn't really done much. I think we're headed into the dry season. I just hope we get a better than average December snow start to winter before I leave.
I think Monsoon season will begin around June 20, plus or minus 5 days, not by the calendar according to the NWS, but when dew points rise dramatically, and it begins to rain over the Sacramento Mountains. It will start about 10 days later in Arizona.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby chumley » Sep 04 2010 11:47 pm

Jim_H wrote:A redundant topic! Blasphemy!

Agreed. This thread should be locked and all future comments placed in the correct thread....
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=4061
:)
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby joe bartels » Sep 05 2010 4:08 am

Hey lets make the entire forum one thread :)
Maybe we could do this, maybe not. We'll look at it again in a week and think about it again in a month.

BTW... stay on topic ;)
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Jim_H » Sep 06 2010 8:55 am

Well, I was just kidding. Otherwise why would have written a long response?

Monsoon season might have one last gasp in it up here:
From the NWS
FOR MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER
NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING DOWN
THE WEST COAST...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS ARIZONA FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO INCREASE...STARTING
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY.


We'll see. It really would be nice to have some moderate to heavy widespread storms, but it feels dry and my guess it that would be asking a lot from the atmosphere.
I think Monsoon season will begin around June 20, plus or minus 5 days, not by the calendar according to the NWS, but when dew points rise dramatically, and it begins to rain over the Sacramento Mountains. It will start about 10 days later in Arizona.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby base871 » Sep 06 2010 12:53 pm

I was flying up in flag yesterday and it was dry and hot out at the craters. Lots of cumi's developing nice cloud streets all the way to the grand canyon. If the winds at the launch site were not so strong someone couldve flown from craters all the way to desert view. I'd say flags monsoon is about done.
"The Edge. There really is no honest way to explain it because the only people who know where it is are those who have gone over." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby azpride » Sep 06 2010 4:25 pm

I got dumped on in the Pinals today. Really didn't expect it, but it sure was nice.
"Arizona is the land of contrast... You can go from Minnesota to California in a matter of minutes, then have Mexican food that night." -Jack Dykinga

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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby azbackpackr » Sep 07 2010 6:42 am

Raining in Flag right now.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Jim_H » Sep 07 2010 9:10 am

Yeah, a good solid rain here for about 1/2 an hour, and longer on the western edge of the forest out between 89A and Williams. The real good news is that this little monsoon storm produced widespread rain, with places like Mt Elden picking up a healthy amount. Maybe we will get lucky and have another round later on today. Maybe one last round before fall moves in this week.
I think Monsoon season will begin around June 20, plus or minus 5 days, not by the calendar according to the NWS, but when dew points rise dramatically, and it begins to rain over the Sacramento Mountains. It will start about 10 days later in Arizona.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby joe bartels » Sep 07 2010 9:18 am

The 7 day valley forecast with only today in the hundreds is muy bueno :y:
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Jim_H » Sep 07 2010 9:20 am

Are you looking at a potential frost Friday night as well?
I think Monsoon season will begin around June 20, plus or minus 5 days, not by the calendar according to the NWS, but when dew points rise dramatically, and it begins to rain over the Sacramento Mountains. It will start about 10 days later in Arizona.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby azbackpackr » Sep 07 2010 12:39 pm

Jim_H wrote:Are you looking at a potential frost Friday night as well?


Yup, it says 35 on the forecast. Yikes!

I am a child of summer. It takes awhile for me to get over the fact that summer is gone. I do have fun in fall and winter, but I just love summertime up here.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Jim_H » Sep 07 2010 1:50 pm

At least when fall starts around here it is mostly a night ordeal and the days are still nice. Not 85 nice, but 65 to 75 nice. I guess we can just move to lower elevation.
I think Monsoon season will begin around June 20, plus or minus 5 days, not by the calendar according to the NWS, but when dew points rise dramatically, and it begins to rain over the Sacramento Mountains. It will start about 10 days later in Arizona.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Sredfield » Sep 07 2010 6:23 pm

I scraped frost off my window at Hart Prairie last Wednesday (9/1) morning.
Shawn
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby azbackpackr » Sep 08 2010 1:01 pm

I really need to learn to embrace these seasonal changes, but the only one I get excited and happy about up here on the mountain is the morph from spring to summer. Summer-to-fall is very beautiful, but I always feel sad anyway.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby joe bartels » Sep 08 2010 1:34 pm

azbackpackr wrote:Summer-to-fall is very beautiful, but I always feel sad anyway.

Join Chlorophyll Anonymous and let those feeling go ;)
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby big_load » Sep 08 2010 1:51 pm

I like fall. I wish there were more water about, but fall is prime hiking season for me.
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Re: End of the monsoon season?

Postby Alston Neal » Sep 09 2010 9:48 am

Well the White-wing doves have left my yard :( The change is in the air, finally.
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