For the record, I wasn't trying to discourage anyone. If it were up to me we would flood areas like Organ Pipe and *discourage* the drug and human smugglers from destroying it with their illicit traffic. I also don't want to give people a false sense of security. The issue at Organ Pipe and other places along the border has little to do with probability of an encounter and much more to do with the likely severity the impact of that encounter will have. Americans tend to be uninitiated to this unless they have been to truly dangerous places in the world without an escort. In essence, this is Risk Management 101.
To use your example:
Likelihood of being assaulted in Phoenix on a scale of 1 to 5...let's say: 2.
Degree to which you will be harmed by the experience on a scale of 1 to 5: probably 1. Multiply and you get 2.
Likelihood of being assaulted at Organ Pipe, maybe it's only a 1.
Degree to which you will be harmed, almost certainly a 5. That makes the overall score a 5 making it almost three times as risky.
What do these numbers really mean? They mean that, should you be attacked in some way in Phoenix, chances are that the police, bystanders, or your response will keep you from being robbed, raped, severely beaten, and/or killed. Also, offenders in Phoenix will be restrained to a degree because they will expect law enforcement retribution. In Organ Pipe or other places near the border the chances of police intervention in time to prevent a bad outcome are almost zero, there will be few bystanders if any, and their motivation to intervene will be low; and the offender will do whatever he so chooses because he's probably wanted for seventeen other rapes and murders here and in Mexico and couldn't care less. Plus, he'll just slip back across the border. There are people down there that will kill you for the $$ in your pocket. The good news is that you, according to my improvised scale, have only at 1 in 5 chance of encountering them...