[Jim_H]

The weather pattern which has set up this year is producing really great warm dry conditions about a month early in Flag. There will be an infusion of moisture coming in from the east this weekend which has potential to produce storms over the higher terrain of eastern and northern AZ. This pattern is monsoon like, but not very moist or sustained to be the monsoon.

This makes me think of when the winds will shift for the long term and dew points will rise to levels we in state call humid. When do you predict the monsoon will begin for 2009.
I'll ignore the Tucson NWS office which uses a definition stating the monsoon begins on the first of three consecutive days with a dew point of 55 degrees or higher, and go with a more simplistic definition that says the monsoon begins when the rain starts to fall and thunder is heard on the mountain.

I predict an early start of June 23rd.

I''m also hoping to see some below zero dew points and <3% humidities like we did in the weeks before the monsoon in 2007. We''ll see.

------------------------------------ Web Cams mentioned in thread for easy reference ------------------------------------
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[fairweather8588]

The NWS service changed their minds last year on when the monsoon starts, "officially" it's june 15th now, running til some time in september now. End of june would be my guess though

[azbackpackr]

You makin' book on this, jhodlof? Ok, I'll throw in. I'll say June 27.

Sure hope it starts in June. We got on the old-fashioned ditch irrigation this year for the first time. We get ditch water for one hour a week--it's a LOT of water to manage for just a big backyard! But LOTS cheaper than city water from the hose. Anyway, they stop sending it around the middle of June, I'm told.

[Jim Lyding]

If you want to see dew points less than zero and less-than-3% humidity then you aren't hoping for the monsoon.
I currently live in central Phoenix, and the monsoon to me is unfortunately not much more than thunder and lightning in the distance with lots of blowing dust. And praying for rain.
I think the monsoon starts when the wind consistently blows in from the east and the south, and carries a lot of moisture.
If I were a betting man (which I'm not unless it's football) I'd guess June 29th, my birthday

[azbackpackr]

It tried to rain up here yesterday, and may have done so up on Baldy, but not in Eagar. It got cloudy, got a little windy and then spit a little. Then it all calmed down again by late afternoon.

[Dschur]

It rained on us today coming back from the North rim of the Grand canyon at Happy Jack from about the ranger station till just before Clints Well... and here in Payson it looks very much like rain. There is always a false monsoon in the months before the monsoon. There was also hail on the windshield...

[azpride]

The dark clouds and thunder turned us around in west clear creek today. It was really disappointing to say the least, as we were planning on staying a second night and visiting the hanging gardens, but it looked very much like monsoon and I was afraid of what might be happening near the headwaters that would reach us later.

[chumley]

Enjoyed about an hour of light rain and rolling thunder up on the rim yesterday afternoon. It was nice to see that kind of weather in May.

As for the OP, in the valley I'd like the monsoon to hold off as long as possible. The drier air makes the nights much cooler. But I also like when the monsoon brings rain to the mountains ... and for that, the sooner the better IMO.

Of course, there's no way to put any kind of accurate prediction on the start, so I'll be prepared and enjoy whatever mother nature dishes out.

[writelots]

I'm thinking an early start is a good bet, too. After 18 years in Tucson, I have found that one of the first big storms of the monsoon season almost always rolls in right around July 4th weekend - usually just in time to make everyone fear whether or not there will be fireworks and to put out the flames on A Mountain...

So, I'm going with a week and half early - that would put me at June 24th.

I LOVE monsoon season in Tucson. I remember as a girl having serious monsoon storms in Phoenix, but from what I've seen, they're just not happening any more. Although they've definitely declined in Tucson, too, we still get hum-dingers from time to time. I have a roof that needs replacing, and each year I hope that the monsoon does just enough damage for the insurance adjuster to write that big check. Here's hoping this is the year (the key being just enough - my hiking gear is in the attic!)

[BobP]

June 24th is a special day for me, so I'm picking that. Man is it whomid today!!!!

[azbackpackr]

We had thunder yesterday. And I was up near Greer briefly in the morning, and had to use the windshield wipers. It did rain there again in the afternoon, I heard.

As for the insurance company replacing your roof, think again. Anything that qualifies as "maintenance" that you should have been taking care of the insurance companies will try to wiggle out of. I know, I tried.

Another way to get your roof replaced worked for us, but it is only if you are low income. There are community grant programs available for emergency home repair. Your town would receive a certain amount of this federal money and you can apply for it. We did qualify. Then they sent two contractors to bid on the job, then they did the job. They did a very good job, too.

[writelots]

As for the insurance company replacing your roof, think again. Anything that qualifies as "maintenance" that you should have been taking care of the insurance companies will try to wiggle out of. I know, I tried.

My roof is supurbly maintained, thank you However, it's also 15 years old. It just doesn't weather storms like it used to. I know I'm going to have to bite that bullet soon, though. It's a big bullet, too, since I can't put another layer of shingles on this time. And, I'm 'fraid we left the "low income" cateogry when I left grad school. Now the government seems to think we're made of money. Fun.

BTW, back to the weather - this may not be a monsoon pattern, but the wind and crazy weather I got hit with up on Tumamoc last night was AWSOME! Maybe a terrible tease, and I might have to live through another month of dry heat - but I'm happy to have a little peep-show early!

[azbackpackr]

We had rain in the White Mtns. today but it was spotty. I was driving back from Show Low to Springerville, and it was coming down pretty good on the 60 summit (Cerro Montoso) and around Vernon, but didn't rain much at all here, and wasn't raining in Show Low, either. Very pleasant day over there, though--cloudy, and not so hot as it has been.

[Jim_H]

We had a pretty good shower in Flag today. The NWS reports 0.28" at the airport. The weather channel says we got 0.52". I don't trust the weather channel since their data often conflicts with the NWS official reports. Still, its nice to have gotten something at this time of year.

[azdesertfather]

I hope you're all right with your June 23-24 predictions. Last monsoon season I felt cheated! Not enough action in this area.

[Jim Lyding]

This week's weather is very reminiscent of this same week last year. However, this storm system isn't nearly as cold as last year's when the high country got snow

[Jim_H]

The last two years have been very odd for precip up here. Both March and April of 2008 and 2009 were very dry, and then May has been fairly wet. This spring wasn't as dry as last a last year, but we still haven't had much. Todays rain was really unseasonal from my short 3 year experience with AZ.

[chumley]

Last May was nice because just as the FS annnounced fire restrictions, the rain came, and they rescinded them for nearly a month!

So far however, Flagstaff has only received the .28 inches of rain they got yesterday (total for May so far), and no snow (which also seems increasingly unlikely).
Hopefully the next couple of days can wring out another inch or so of rain on the pines up north.

Last year was slightly above normal. Here's the stats for Flagstaff (airport) from May 2008:

PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH................................. 1.17 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................................ 0.80 INCHES
GREATEST IN 24 HOURS............................... 0.63 ON 23RD
DAYS WITH 0.01 INCH OR MORE....................... 5 (NORMAL 5)
DAYS WITH 0.10 INCH OR MORE....................... 2 (NORMAL 2)
DAYS WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE....................... 1 (NORMAL 0)
DAYS WITH 1.00 INCH OR MORE....................... 0 (NORMAL 0)

SNOW DATA
TOTAL FOR THE MONTH.................................. 8.7 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................................. 1.2 INCHES

BTW I enjoyed riding my bike to work in the rain today. That doesn't happen very often, and was sort of refreshing. Plus it wasn't heavy enough for my clothes to get soaked so that helped!

[jeffmacewen]

I haven't seen a hint of lightning yet and this storm hasn't been very windy down here in Tucson. It was gathering in the afternoon, but now it's acting like an annoying late winter storm so I'll be happy to be rid of it, personally. I can't wait for the real monsoons to come on. We haven't had a stupid motorist law violation in far too long!

[writelots]

I haven't seen a hint of lightning yet and this storm hasn't been very windy down here in Tucson.

Man, then you weren't up on Tumamoc on Tuesday night. Crazy! Wind, lightening and sprinkles. It felt great - very much like the monsoon tease! Yesterday was a disappointment, though. We registered .02 inches on my rain gauge... Not even enough to wash the mesquite sap off my windshield...