[Cheerycow]

This fire is getting worse. The winds have been relentless.

Whenever I come across an older native Tucsonan I ask if they feel that the winds have become worse over the years...invariably the answer is yes. This is strictly anecdotal feedback of course. I'd like to see some sort of study but the wind has always been the phantom of weather forecasts, especially with regards to "TV" weather; it is as though weather forecasters decided some time ago that wind just doesn't matter to the average citizen. Only recently--apparently due to the wind-whipped fires--have the forecasters discussed it. (I did hear a local report on NPR on June 2 that May had a record amount of Red Flag days.)
Having lived here for 34 years (arriving for college in 1977) and spending huge amounts of time working outdoors, bicycling, hiking, and camping, it has been clear to me that the winds have steadily become stronger in the last 20 years or so.
Again, this is all anecdotal.

[Jim_H]

Red flag days aren't strictly wind caused and the drought has a lot to do with it. We get horrible wind in Flagstaff to the extent that it is a season. Even the most pleasant spring season I remember since moving here 5 years ago had a lot of wind. It was 2007, but it wasn't as horrible as subsequent years (anecdotally) and it was a warm spring so it felt different when the wind was blowing at 40 to 50 MPH. Big difference between high winds at 40 MPH and a temperature of 55, or 75 to 85, or higher.

[Cheerycow]

Very good point about the strict definition of "Red Flag Days."

And yes, a given wind speed does feel different in different temps, in different places, and in different frames of mind.

[joe bartels]

May seemed like the windiest May in the 25 years I've been in the valley. Barely even noticed the gnats which are typically horrid. Does anyone have year over year wind statistics? April and May are typically the windiest.

While this fire went from 55% containment two days ago to 40% at 9am it is encouraging they report...
Estimated Containment: June 22, 2011

The humidity has dropped a notch the last three days from 7 to 6 to 5%. Yet I'm not sure what times of day I was seeing those reports, nevertheless we're moving into the driest few weeks of the year so it's expected.

[Jim_H]

I recall 2010 as the windiest Spring in Flag. No, I have no data to support this, just my recollection which is highly subjective and very much influenced by frustration over conditions at the time, and my memory of those events. Depending on what you looked at there could be different qualifiers for 'windiest". I know we had a 64 MPH wind day on the 29th of May this year, but we seemed to have far more winds storms in 2010, and they might have had high winds, but it seemed that they weren't as extreme as the 29th. 2010 had a ton of I-40 closures and dust storms. 2009 didn't seem very windy, especially when those freak rains came in. 2008 was windy, but maybe no more so than normal for Flagstaff, it just seemed that way compared to 2007. It's all memory and that is subjective.

I suggest wunderground and looking at customized time frame for historical records. Compare the number of days with gust over a certain threshold in this year vs past year, or the peak gust for certain years. Or, contact the NWS directly.

[Cheerycow]

That June 22 date has been in place since the first few days of the fire. I assumed it was a wild guess or perhaps simply their hope for the arrival of monsoon rains.
The date hasn't changed in a month.
I hope they are correct but I am prepared for the worst.

[Jim_H]

The containment date seems to be something they put up, but aren't really attentive to.

On the miller, they have had this:

Wednesday August 31st, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM

as the containment date since the fire started over a month ago. At one point, they had around 80% containment and wrote an update stating they felt certain that containment could be achieved by the expected date. I thought, "I hope so"! It would be pretty bad if you've got a 3 month containment horizon and it's already at 80%, but can't have it at 100% by the end of August. Besides, if left to burn for 3 months, everything out there would be treated.

[joe bartels]

http://hikearizona.com/t2011/06/09/O_23 ... 427-17.jpg

[Cheerycow]

http://hikearizona.com/t2011/06/09/O_23-15637_1307419427-17.jpg

Excellent map. Thanks, Joe!
Where did you get that? (I have a hard time finding things on the Inciweb site.)

Can we assume the areas without "hotspots" are "out" or is it simply that every area withing the burn area is still burning to some degree, (just not super-hot)?

[joe bartels]

It's activity within 6 hours as detected by satellite. It's from the modis data provided several times each hour by the government. I'm not qualified to answer the rest, it may be available via a google query on "modis fire accuracy".


For everyones listening enjoyment http://www.google.com/webhp?hl=en&tune= ... QShMCGAACQ (I had to plug this somewhere...lol)

[sirena]

Pictures of the Barfoot Lookout going up in flames: http://narcamoorecraig.blogspot.com/201 ... e-two.html

[tibber]

Pictures of the Barfoot Lookout going up in flames: http://narcamoorecraig.blogspot.com/201 ... e-two.html

great pics... so sad! Thx for the link.

[Jim_H]

This fire seems to be getting nearly ignored by it's much larger and angrier big brother. Anyone know about the burn conditions? Since the entire range is burning this could be a very interesting fire for the range. I know there was a fire there in the recent past, and there may be some reburn in those areas. If a species, like Arizona Pine, Apache Pine, Mexican Pinyon, or a Douglas Fir, is burned off the mountain they could be gone from there unless seeded or planted in. Some, like the oaks and Chihuahua Pine would be fine since they can sprout or copice.

[RedRoxx44]

So sad to look at the fire map. A photo/video link I was sent showed some pretty hot ( ashy gray) look to some large areas. It looks as if the entire range is burned and while may be some islands it will never be the same in my lifetime. In a few years will be ferns and wildflowers if lucky but no more big pines and shade to escape the heat. Maybe the south fork survived in some form but when the rains come so will the silt down into the lower canyons.

[RangerKelly]

Yes, based on maps I have seen it looks as if the entire range is up in flames. This is extremely depressing and I would hope they would replant to get those trees back.

But I was just going to say while the Wallow Fire is much bigger, there is still a ton of forest left up there. The Horseshoe Fire looks as if its destroying the whole mountain range.

[Cheerycow]

So sad to look at the fire map. A photo/video link I was sent showed some pretty hot ( ashy gray) look to some large areas. It looks as if the entire range is burned and while may be some islands it will never be the same in my lifetime. In a few years will be ferns and wildflowers if lucky but no more big pines and shade to escape the heat. Maybe the south fork survived in some form but when the rains come so will the silt down into the lower canyons.

No, it will be changed forever. An important key is how the mountain recovered from the previous burns. While some areas went through the expected cycle of ferns/grasses/aspens, as of last fall, many areas of the 1987 and 1994 burns were almost completely unchanged from the day they burned. It depends on many things such as how badly the soil was sterilized, what the exposure is, the moisture, surrounding areas, etc. Apparently, in comparison to most areas the Cave Creek area was hurt the least. There were some beneficial burns there and many areas were untouched. It is the high country that was ravaged.
I am very anxious to get in and see for myself but who knows when we will be allowed in. A friend feels that they will keep it closed for a very long time. I hope he is wrong.

[paulhubbard]

I'm thankful that I was able to explore the Chiricahua Nat Monument before this fire occurred, although we didn't make it to the Heart of the Rocks, and were planning on another trip to explore there. Very sad that this truly unique area will lose (has lost?) this battle. I have to wonder if the rocks will be scarred from the smoke and ash?

I also have to wonder if the fires along the border aren't being caused by illegals making their way up through the state? They probably would know nothing about, nor care in the least about fire restrictions.

[sbkelley]

From what I read on Inciweb, it looks like most of the burn in the Monument itself was of the low-level brush-clearing variety: http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2225/. If that's true, great for the long run.

So sad to think of the Rustler Park-Chiricahua Crest area being ravaged though, we went up there a few times in the late summer/early fall when the raspberries came out. At the same time, weren't these raspberry thickets post-fire growth themselves? It looked like there had been some significant burns along some of the Crest Trail in the past.

[Cheerycow]

From what I read on Inciweb, it looks like most of the burn in the Monument itself was of the low-level brush-clearing variety: http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2225/. If that's true, great for the long run.

So sad to think of the Rustler Park-Chiricahua Crest area being ravaged though, we went up there a few times in the late summer/early fall when the raspberries came out. At the same time, weren't these raspberry thickets post-fire growth themselves? It looked like there had been some significant burns along some of the Crest Trail in the past.

Yes, as I mentioned above, the two main burns were 1994 (Rattlesnake Fire) and 1987 (near Centella). We thought that the 1987 fire was a tragedy because it ate up some of the most beautiful thick stands of trees on the plateau area between Fly Peak and Centella. Then the Rattlesnake fire came. We then had to get used to the changes after that fire burned tremendous areas all over the high country. We all used to think that the Rattlesnake Fire would be the biggest fire the mountains would ever endure.

It is now very small when compared to the current fire.

I cannot overstate this: these mountains were lush and thick before those fires. The high-country and the Crest Trail areas had beautiful stands and huge individual trees that added up to make the Chiris a statistical standout (records for the type of trees, southermost locations, etc.). If you never saw "the old days" you cannot imagine what the area was like before the Rattlesnake Fire. And now? Hmmm...only time will tell.

(Edit: Oh, and there were always raspberries in the high-country. Those raspberry bushes that are in the junction of the 4 trails at Crest Trail/Fly Peak/Centella trails were just one of the many lovely elements of the area. They grew back quickly after the Rattlesnake fire...I wish I could say the same for the trees.)

[Jim_H]

Ah, but dense or thick trees are a product of modern man, and to say we never saw the old days suggests that we only view things through the lens of our own time. You never saw the old days from the presettlement times, to which we really should be judging our forests. Fires may continue to get larger, but there are reasons for that, not just dense trees. It is important to know that even if the Wallow passes half a million acres and is our state's largest in recorded history, it probably is nothing out of the ordinary for fires before recorded history.

As I mentioned before in another thread, we had lightning fires last June, weeks before rain came in. With winds and terrain, they could easily have been over a 1million or 2 million acres before rain and fuel moisture made growth difficult, and then they still may have been around in drier areas for a while. South east Arizona is part of the continent which has a high number of lightning strikes at the driest time of year. In "Forest Stand Dynamics", by Oliver and Larson, Wiley Press, 1996, Figure 4.3 on page 105 has a black dot like a bull's eye over SE AZ and SW NM. This black dot corresponds to >60 lightning fires for 1 million acres, in a given year. Most of Arizona and New Mexico are in the 40 to 60 lightning fires for 1 million acres, in a given year. Fire return intervals in the sky island pine forests averaged every 6 years, with a range of 1 to 13 years. As we see today, fires burn rapidly across grass and brush lands in dry, windy weather, and in the weeks before the monsoon and with storm outflow, rapid fire growth could be expected.

A scene like this was probably rare before the 1950s:
http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=191081

With this being the norm right after a fire:
http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=138253

The dense "lush" mid elevation pine forests in the SW that many people came to love in recent decades are a product of modern human intervention against natural phenomenon, and it represents an aberration of the norm given the last 10,000 years (roughly). Without human intervention to correct our arrogant assumptions and activities, it is inevitable that highly destructive and unnatural fires, as we are currently experiencing, will become normal and recurrent. Soil erosion, reservoir siltation, nutrient depletion, elimination of seed sources for regeneration, and shifts to other forest or cover types will occur and is already occurring.