Mindless chit chat

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Jim_H
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Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Marana, AZ

Mindless chit chat

Post by Jim_H »

The endless chatter of weather.
Last edited by big_load on Aug 01 2017 9:52 pm, edited 25 times in total.
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Jim_H
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by Jim_H »

@sneakySASQUATCH
But, you like and chose to live in Colorado, and that is fairly normal April weather for you, so even though it is not 83 and sunny it is enjoyable? After the big heat here for the last few weeks, it is nice to have pleasant spring temps before I fear the oven kicks on again. Then again, the heat at 2000' in Marana won't be the same as it was at 1000' in Phoenix.
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sneakySASQUATCH
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by sneakySASQUATCH »

@Jim_H
I’m happy about the snow. 6 years ago today we got 24” of snow overnight and yesterday was the 7th straight powder day in a row so it’s been a great riding season. Would be nice to hopefully not have half of Colorado burning all summer as well.
:o
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friendofThundergod
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by friendofThundergod »

Along the Young road today.
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RedRoxx44
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 »

Was reading up on AZ drought conditions. A small note " some climate indicators that the summer monsoon might be wetter than normal"--yeah right I won't hold my breath. From the few cattle I've seen the cows look pretty poor trying to feed their calves; with poor grass and having to cover quite a bit of territory for water.
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Jim_H
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by Jim_H »

Wow, there is fresh snow on the slopes at Snowbowl. Still snowing in their webcams. I think May 2nd is the final day of their winter season, so this is kind of nice for them.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

The arbitrary temperature by which we seem to hang our hats is the big 100F. Of course it's arbitrary because if we chose to use another unit of measurement, 100F would be meaningless. But I digress.

This "milestone" is in risk of being reached for the phirst time at the Sky Harbor paved hot lot on Thursday. It could happen Wednesday. Or not this week at all. But it's been 11 years since 100 happened so late in the year.

What does that mean? Really, nothing at all. April was considerably warmer than most of those previous 11 years despite not having a single day reach that arbitrary threshold that we get excited about.

Yay. #science
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Weather statistics are often compared to "normal" values (was this year warmer than "normal"?) and those values are based on the averages over the last 30-year period. That 30-year period resets every decade, and since 2021 starts a new decade, the new "normal" values calculated based on readings from 1991-2020 have been implemented (whereas up until this year they were based on readings from 1981-2010).

So how did the "normal" readings change over the last 10 years? Most of Arizona's "normal" annual precipitation has dropped between 5% and 15% over the previous 30-year period of record, and the annual mean temperature is now about 0.5°F to 1.0°F warmer than the last period of record.

It's worth noting that across the west, these changes are reflected across vast swaths of sparsely or uninhabited land, and not limited to localized urban heat islands in places like the Phoenix metro.

Illustrations from the National Weather Service Phoenix office:
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Watauga
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by Watauga »

chumley wrote: May 04 2021 10:40 am Weather statistics are often compared to "normal" values (was this year warmer than "normal"?) and those values are based on the averages over the last 30-year period. That 30-year period resets every decade, and since 2021 starts a new decade, the new "normal" values calculated based on readings from 1991-2020 have been implemented (whereas up until this year they were based on readings from 1981-2010).

So how did the "normal" readings change over the last 10 years? Most of Arizona's "normal" annual precipitation has dropped between 5% and 15% over the previous 30-year period of record, and the annual mean temperature is now about 0.5°F to 1.0°F warmer than the last period of record.

It's worth noting that across the west, these changes are reflected across vast swaths of sparsely or uninhabited land, and not limited to localized urban heat islands in places like the Phoenix metro.

Illustrations from the National Weather Service Phoenix office:

That's an interesting point on what is considered "normal." I didn't realize that it was a rolling range like that.
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hikeaz
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by hikeaz »

Twain-
"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
"The censorship method ... is that of handing the job over to some frail and erring mortal man, and making him omnipotent on the assumption that his official status will make him infallible and omniscient."
GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Here's the change in monsoon moisture. It's striking to see the sharp change in the San Juans.
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toddak
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by toddak »

@chumley
I got monsooned on 5 days out of a 7-day backpack in the San Juans last August so I gotta disbelieve that graphic [-(
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Jim_H
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by Jim_H »

I see the first ozone warning for the Valley counties of Maricopa and Pinal, for the next few days. Doesn't extend down to Pima County.

Can't say I miss that. I really don't miss living in a big city.
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SpiderLegs
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by SpiderLegs »

Jim_H wrote:I see the first ozone warning for the Valley counties of Maricopa and Pinal, for the next few days.
When I finally broke down to see an allergist about my persistent breathing issues the one major item he was adamant about was making sure I don't exercise either inside or outside while Phoenix had a high ozone warning. Said ozone is particularly nasty to breath in and for anyone with lung issues can create long term damage. Even at the gym, I was told that the minute someone opens the door, ozone seeps inside.

Since moving to Pima County my breathing got better until I caught Valley Fever, I just can't win.
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andrewp
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by andrewp »

@SpiderLegs

The ozone warning days in Phoenix were especially bad for me as well. I remember cleaning out our shed a couple of years ago on a high ozone day and had some major breathing issues that evening. Since moving back I’ve been amazed at how most of my respiratory issues are just gone. Some of that is a change in the allergen profile, but the lower ozone and small particulate matter has made a huge difference.
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