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Jim_H
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Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.
Last edited by big_load on Aug 01 2017 9:52 pm, edited 25 times in total.
Reason: Requested by Jim H because of dead links
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joebartels
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by joebartels » Dec 10 2015 9:46 am

Yeah your weather curse came to mind!

We usually get a cold snap in Dec, looks like two this year. Lows in the thirties are really the only suffering. When I rode my bike in the 90's the bar of wince was around 45. Under felt like torture. For hiking, the bar for myself is more around 40.
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chumley
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by chumley » Dec 10 2015 10:41 am

joe bartels wrote:We usually get a cold snap in Dec
If by cold snap you mean relatively normal winter temperatures, that's probably true! :lol:
You :pk: a lot for somebody who seems to have missed the past 8 days of highs running a minimum 3 degrees and as much as 12 degrees ABOVE normal! It's been a crazy-warm start to December this year! :-({|=
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joebartels
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by joebartels » Dec 10 2015 11:09 am

It was igloo cold ten days ago!
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nikorock28
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by nikorock28 » Dec 17 2015 8:51 am

Well, I am resurrecting this thread as it has fallen off the Recent Activity page. Super cold is the best way to describe how the weather has been up here. On the news last night, they said both Bellemont and the South Rim hit lows of -14 degrees yesterday morning, the lowest temperatures in the continental 48. However, it did not feel that cold to me on the walk to work at 8AM... in my estimation, it was probably around 0. But, my nostrils were sticking together, so who knows. Definitely a little warmer this morning compared to yesterday as no sticking nostrils were present. It is finally supposed to get above freezing today, so my hope is that some of the roadways start to melt.

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big_load
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by big_load » Dec 17 2015 8:57 am

If the current two-week forecast holds (and it's usually not far off), this will be the warmest December in history for NJ.

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chumley
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by chumley » Dec 17 2015 1:52 pm

The National Weather Service posted this interesting photo comparison of Arizona's snow cover before and after last weekend's storm.

Looks like the North Rim was severely lacking prior to this storm.

Interestingly, there was more snow in the Superstitions before the storm than after.

I also like seeing how the pine-wooded areas appear to have less snow than the desert areas. Simply a result of satellite photography showing snow more brightly when it exists on a treeless landscape.

I wish there was an easy way to pull up this MODIS imagery and check it everyday. I did a quick search, but the MODIS site isn't that easy to figure out. Anybody who knows more about it, I'd be interested in learning.
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Jim_H
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by Jim_H » Dec 17 2015 7:26 pm

I'm wondering when the precipitation is going to start rolling in. Now, I am not looking forward to a potential endless string of lows and not being able to do anything, but I would 1) like to be able to head to the Peaks to snowshoe on at least 5 feet of snow once and maybe twice, and before the end of January so I could 2) go to Durango to snowshoe if I enjoy being in cold, but also I looked at the Sierra Snow pack, and it is still well below normal, and both the last El Nino of 2009 to 2010, and the normally dry, but very wet La Nina of 2010-2011. Really, for as mega as this is supposed to be, it isn't very impressive. That said, Flagstaff has had over 27 inches of precip this year, the most I ever saw. A very wet year. Where will the Sierra or the SW stand in 3 months?
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johnlp
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by johnlp » Dec 18 2015 6:25 am

I read somewhere the biggest impact of El Nino will be Jan-Mar.
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big_load
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by big_load » Dec 25 2015 8:48 pm

NY and NJ will clinch the warmest December in history, even with a some more seasonal temperatures next week. The average thus far in December is 13F above the comparable historical average.

It was 73F on Christmas Eve, which WNBC News pointed out was only 3 degrees cooler than the 4th of July. It was in the mid-60s today, and we celebrated Christmas with some canoeing down at the lake. It's far from the first time we've done that, but it certainly was the warmest. One year there was thin ice on the whole lake, which made for some slow going.

However, January is when winter really kicks in here, and all this warm weather will probably be a dim, distant memory when the snow finally stops falling on Tax Day.

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Jim_H
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by Jim_H » Dec 25 2015 8:54 pm

Any one been on the Peak recently? I'm wondering what the back country looks like, and though Snowbowl reports a hefty amount, the Snotel has more modest figures. However, the snotel may be drier if the west side was favored. According to long range models, the jet may dip south over Ca early next month, so there could be some heavy snow for the Peaks, which I think would finally open it up for hiking.
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Jim_H
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by Jim_H » Dec 25 2015 8:56 pm

big_load wrote:NY and NJ will clinch the warmest December in history, even with a some more seasonal temperatures next week. The average thus far in December is 13F above the comparable historical average.

It was 73F on Christmas Eve, which WNBC News pointed out was only 3 degrees cooler than the 4th of July. It was in the mid-60s today, and we celebrated Christmas with some canoeing down at the lake. It's far from the first time we've done that, but it certainly was the warmest. One year there was thin ice on the whole lake, which made for some slow going.

However, January is when winter really kicks in here, and all this warm weather will probably be a dim, distant memory when the snow finally stops falling on Tax Day.
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MtnBart01
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by MtnBart01 » Dec 25 2015 9:49 pm

El Niño can get as much revenge as it wants as long as it keeps giving me nothing but powder days. 4 straight days in December. Awesome!
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joebartels
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by joebartels » Dec 28 2015 5:49 pm

cold snap!
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Jim_H
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by Jim_H » Dec 28 2015 5:58 pm

Hot clap?
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chumley
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by chumley » Dec 30 2015 7:48 am

Oh boy, the NWS forecasters are getting giddy! :y:
Confidence is becoming quite high...That a major change in the weather is on the way... The well-above normal sea-surface temperatures that have existed over the past several months are finally now being reflected in the atmosphere...As typically seen during el-nino episodes... Quite likely that this system will be able to pull a rather rich plume of tropical moisture... Forecast is showing an atmospheric river developing by next monday just off the northern baja coast... Capable of producing widespread rainfall... Behind this 1st system...It appears that at least two more systems could affect our weather through the remainder of next week...Perhaps the beginning of the widely expected el-nino-influenced precip surge across the region.
I'd love to see some rain. But I still think the el niño hype is comical. So far there's nothing about this winter that has been anything that isn't typical for winter in AZ. Even if next week turns out as forecast, it's something that typically happens a couple of times a season regardless of SST.
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SpiderLegs
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by SpiderLegs » Dec 30 2015 8:42 am

chumley wrote:Oh boy, the NWS forecasters are getting giddy! :y:
Confidence is becoming quite high...That a major change in the weather is on the way... The well-above normal sea-surface temperatures that have existed over the past several months are finally now being reflected in the atmosphere...As typically seen during el-nino episodes... Quite likely that this system will be able to pull a rather rich plume of tropical moisture... Forecast is showing an atmospheric river developing by next monday just off the northern baja coast... Capable of producing widespread rainfall... Behind this 1st system...It appears that at least two more systems could affect our weather through the remainder of next week...Perhaps the beginning of the widely expected el-nino-influenced precip surge across the region.
I'd love to see some rain. But I still think the el niño hype is comical. So far there's nothing about this winter that has been anything that isn't typical for winter in AZ. Even if next week turns out as forecast, it's something that typically happens a couple of times a season regardless of SST.
I would love to see some rain. My sinuses are driving me crazy and hope that we can clear up the air around town. Even better if it just rains Monday through Friday so that I can get outside on the weekend.
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Sredfield
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by Sredfield » Dec 30 2015 12:24 pm

Moisture is great, but I need a week or more of drying out so we can get a few back country AZT chores done. Slick muddy access roads are a pain.
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azbackpackr
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by azbackpackr » Dec 30 2015 6:04 pm

Sredfield wrote: I need a week or more of drying out
12 step program? ;) ;)
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friendofThundergod
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by friendofThundergod » Dec 30 2015 9:16 pm

Snowpack is up in Cali...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topsto ... li=BBnb7Kz
ECHO SUMMIT, Calif. — The water content of the Sierra Nevada snowpack in drought-stricken California was 136 percent of normal Wednesday when officials took the winter's first manual survey — an encouraging result after nearly no snow was found at the site in April.

The latest snow level is a good sign, "but that's it — it's a start," said Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources.

After four years of drought, Gehrke plunged a measuring pole into a thick field of snow in the Central Sierra, which includes Lake Tahoe. His survey followed an electronic measurement last week that put the water content of the snowpack at 112 percent of normal. Even more snow has fallen since then.

The snowpack provides about 30 percent of California's water supply during the months when it melts and rushes through rivers and streams to fill reservoirs that remain critically low.

Last Jan. 1, the snowpack was a meager 45 percent of the historical average. On April 1, it had dropped to a record low of 5 percent.

Gehrke said snow must continue falling through April for him to feel confident the drought is easing.

"There's going to be those anxious moments when we start to get into a week, a week-and-a-half with no snow," he said.

A brewing El Nino system — a warming in the Pacific Ocean that alters weather worldwide — is expected to impact California and the rest of the nation in the coming months, according to a NASA report released Tuesday.

Its effects on California's drought are hard to predict, but Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert said it should bring some relief. El Ninos in the early 1980s and late 1990s brought about twice as much rain as normal, he said.

The weather also caused mudslides, flooding and high surf in Southern California.

"The water story for much of the American West over most of the past decade has been dominated by punishing drought," Patzert said. "Now, we're preparing to see the flip-side of nature's water cycle — the arrival of steady, heavy rains and snowfall."

Forecasters expect a light to moderate storm system in Northern California early next week

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The_Dude
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Re: El Niño's revenge.

Post by The_Dude » Dec 30 2015 9:22 pm

@Jim_H I made it to the western side of the Peaks yesterday, snow abounds. Once you hit 8000' empty ground is hard to come by. We had a good consistent 5-6" on the ground, we were a little north of the Nordic Center on the 180. Dry powder too, kids and I couldn't make a snowman to save our lives.

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