Mindless weather chit chat

Moderator: HAZ - Moderators

Linked Guides none
Linked Areas none
User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.
Last edited by big_load on Aug 01 2017 9:52 pm, edited 25 times in total.
Reason: Requested by Jim H because of dead links
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Sep 18 2019 2:21 pm

Kayaking on I-10 has historically been the result of the remnants of tropical systems moving into Arizona. Kayaking is fun.
Attachments
70663251_2395984477145389_3804239631432548352_n.jpg
Profound observer

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Sep 19 2019 7:33 am

Can we really count on widespread 1-2" rain totals from a forecast this far out, and as uncertain as tropical systems typically produce in Arizona? (I was hoping for more, but I think that historical tropical systems drop higher amounts of rain in pretty limited areas.) It will be interesting to see how this develops.

For now, here's the current "Hi Jim ;)" QPF map.
Attachments
p168i.gif

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Sep 19 2019 9:19 am

Yeah, a 168 hour QPF is typically not all that reliable, but we shall see. Even with a higher level of accuracy for a Pacific Low in January that will affect the Sierra Nevada, there tends to be a lot of variation over that time frame, as you know, Toddy. The models haven't been very reliable for the big predictions over the last month. We shall see.

Looking at the potential rainfall, and realizing that this is more the result of a low dropping into the state from the Great Basin, and moisture from the dead tropical storm, if this does pan out, it raises one question for me. Given how dry the state has been this summer, what kind of benefit will this bring? Flagstaff still reports only 1.24 inches of rain since July 1. How widespread was that kind of pattern?

Assuming other similarly dry areas picked up 1.5+ inches of rain, which would just about saturate most of the soil, with it being so late in the growing season for areas above 3,000 or 4,000', how great is this for most plants? In Phoenix, it probably would help wild flowers out for spring, but with several mid 30s low temperatures already recorded on the Colorado Plateau, it probably doesn't have as much ecological benefit as summer rain in early August would have had.

Then again, last year the early October storms were so wet, that the rocks were leaking trickles of water from their cracks in the Sierra Ancha, so the hydrologic benefits are obvious.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Sep 20 2019 7:36 am

The current run of weather models result in an 11.5% chance of no measurable rain in Phoenix from now through Wednesday next week. I'm starting to think that this percentage will increase.
Profound observer

no avatar
DixieFlyer
Posts: 128
Joined: Jan 07 2017 7:03 am
City, State: Fountain Hills, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by DixieFlyer » Sep 23 2019 4:26 pm

My rain gauge has recorded 3.9" of rain so far today. That is quite a bit when you consider that the average annual rainfall is around 9".

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Sep 26 2019 1:30 pm

We beat the odds! It rained.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
MtnBart01
Posts: 498
Joined: Aug 23 2005 9:26 am
City, State: Chipita Park, Co

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by MtnBart01 » Oct 10 2019 9:23 am

❄️ accumulation and 21 degrees.
LET IT SNOW! Let it SNOW! Let it Snow!

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Oct 11 2019 11:03 am

WOW! the dew point at Sky Harbor is -2 degrees. Thats dry!
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

Post Reply

Return to “Weather”


cron