Mindless weather chit chat

Moderator: HAZ - Moderators

Linked Guides none
Linked Areas none
User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.
Last edited by big_load on Aug 01 2017 9:52 pm, edited 25 times in total.
Reason: Requested by Jim H because of dead links
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
joebartels
Posts: 7020
Joined: Nov 20 1996 12:00 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by joebartels » Jun 09 2019 5:23 am

72 in the Valley now, might be a while until the next 72
Hike Arizona it ROCKS!

User avatar
SpiderLegs
Posts: 756
Joined: Jul 12 2012 7:35 pm
City, State: Tucson, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by SpiderLegs » Jun 09 2019 6:01 am

Left my house yesterday and it was 69 degrees, at the turnoff to Catalina State Park on Oracle Road it dropped a bit down to 64. The best reason to hike here is that by the time I got to the trailhead parking lot the temperature dropped another 11 degrees and it was a cool 53 degrees at 5:00 AM.
See my pics on Instagram @tucsonexplorer

User avatar
RedRoxx44
Posts: 813
Joined: Feb 15 2003 8:07 am
City, State: outside, anywhere

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 » Jun 11 2019 6:18 pm

Had rain south of here yesterday, enough to run in the streets, and two evenings of beautiful sunsets and clouds and some notable humidity. Certainly monsoon like but not gaining traction with the weather folks. Fires near Sonoita and one near the Hellsgate north of Nogales. Thunder yesterday evening too.

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jun 18 2019 6:53 am

I predict a late monsoon. The Phoenix National Weather Service discussion this morning is talking about a weak subtropical jet, and we have another late-season trough that will affect the area this coming weekend. The discussion also talks about late precipitation in other late Monsoon years. The monsoon being a seasonal wind shift as it is technically known and not a thunderstorm. It will be interesting to see how this summer rainy season or monsoon season plays out after the very wet winter with the cool wet storms late into spring.
Last edited by Jim_H on Jun 18 2019 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Jun 18 2019 7:18 am

Jim_H wrote:
Jun 18 2019 6:53 am
I predict a late monsoon
We all know the monsoon began June 15th, right? :sweat:
Profound observer

User avatar
big_load
Posts: 4347
Joined: Oct 28 2003 11:20 am
City, State: Andover, NJ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by big_load » Jun 18 2019 8:18 am

The repeated establishment of west-east stationary fronts through PA and NJ has brought us almost uniformly cool, wet weather since the end of winter. One or two days a week, the pattern breaks and drier air blows in from the northwest before the stationary front sets up again. I wonder how this pattern correlates with the medium-term trend in AZ.

User avatar
CannondaleKid
Posts: 1259
Joined: May 04 2004 8:39 pm
City, State: Mesa, AZ
Contact:

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by CannondaleKid » Jun 18 2019 9:24 am

chumley wrote:We all know the monsoon began June 15th, right? :sweat:
At least the TV weathermen/women seem to think so... all I heard last week was "Get ready, monsoon season begins June 15"
It can wait... I'm enjoying hiking in the low humidity.
CannondaleKid

User avatar
LindaAnn
Posts: 206
Joined: Dec 24 2007 6:49 am
City, State: Ahwatukee, AZ
Contact:

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by LindaAnn » Jun 18 2019 9:37 am

I think I’ve posted a link to this paper before, but basically, it says that springs with higher snowpack tend to be followed by drier monsoons.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... 2.0.CO%3B2

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jun 27 2019 6:23 am

The snow pack remains high, and the NWS posted their 10 to 14 day outlook.

Below normal (still hot) temperatures the first week of July ( to about the 10th) and below normal precipitation chances. The 7 day QPF has no rain over Arizona, and not all that much for New Mexico, in my opinion, either.

I prognosticate SE Arizona won't really see rain until after July 10, the Whites and eastern AZ around the same. Flagstaff, after July 15, and Phoenix won't get measurable rain (>1/100th of an inch) until after Flagstaff and possibly July 20th. Not just Sky Harbor, but the Valley in general. The Mongoloid Rim will see rain gradually spread west between the 10th and 15th, but dry lightning will be more common. At least 1 member will bitch endlessly about fires, smoke ruining plans, and how tragic everything in is. Someone will complain about the FS, and someone else will complain on Facebook about too many people doing something. People will complain, let's just say that.

It will be a weak start, and the jet stream will dip down through August causing extended breaks with wind and red flag days, similar to 2009. There might be a peak of activity, in late August, but by September things will back off rapidly and it will be gone the second week of the month. Rainfall will be below normal overall.

Hopefully, there will be a lot of really pretty clouds, and storms around despite the general decrease in activity and rainfall.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Jun 27 2019 7:51 am

@Jim_H
Also, a couple of us will bitch about grammar and spelling (thanks for getting lightening right!)
Jim_H wrote:
Jun 27 2019 6:23 am
Hopefully, there will be a lot of really pretty clouds
This will certainly help make your traditional sky photos a little more interesting. :sweat:
Profound observer

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jun 27 2019 8:06 am

@chumley
nothing about the "Mongoloid Rim"?
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Jun 27 2019 8:14 am

@Jim_H
Nah. I prefer Mongolian myself, but I'm generally a fan of renaming and mispronuncicating things when done intentionally.
Profound observer

no avatar
hiking_arizona
Posts: 19
Joined: Mar 13 2002 9:06 am

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by hiking_arizona » Jun 28 2019 5:43 pm

.
Last edited by hiking_arizona on Jun 30 2019 2:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.

User avatar
SpiderLegs
Posts: 756
Joined: Jul 12 2012 7:35 pm
City, State: Tucson, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by SpiderLegs » Jun 28 2019 8:01 pm

It huffed and it puffed and squeezed out about 5 drops of rain on my windshield in NW Tucson. But we had monsoonal clouds and wind this afternoon.
See my pics on Instagram @tucsonexplorer

User avatar
Nighthiker
Posts: 1441
Joined: Feb 03 2002 6:59 am
City, State: Payson

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Nighthiker » Jun 28 2019 10:15 pm

Cicadas are singing between Payson and Sunflower.
jk

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jun 29 2019 7:29 am

@Nighthiker
I heard them on Piestewa last evening, too. However, Linda and I heard them during our June 8 Milk Ranch Point Hike, mostly in the morning along the Highline trail. Not really sure there is much more than proximity with the desert species. I seem to recall the ones around Flagstaff singing for a couple of weeks in early June, and then falling silent by the time the seasonal wind shift made itself felt.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
RedRoxx44
Posts: 813
Joined: Feb 15 2003 8:07 am
City, State: outside, anywhere

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 » Jun 29 2019 7:41 am

Walked Fri morning in light rain for about 5 min; later that afternoon some wind, thunder and distant lightning and dark skies, but cleared and nothing more at my house.

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jul 01 2019 8:08 am

In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF keep very dry conditions over most
of the state well beyond the 7 day forecast period and out to 240
hours, suggesting the monsoon will take quite some time before it
really starts to get going.
-From the PHX NWS

Turns out the clouds over Arizona over the last 2 days were from a system moving to the north, not the seasonal wind shift.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

User avatar
chumley
Posts: 6978
Joined: Sep 18 2002 8:59 am
City, State: Tempe, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by chumley » Jul 01 2019 9:07 am

Monsoonal moisture continues to gradually increase across southeast Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into the early evening across the region with the main concern being gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours from Tucson eastward. Modest moisture will be present this week for mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly to the south and east of Tucson -- TWC NWS
The Phoenix and Tucson offices should talk to each other.
Profound observer

User avatar
Jim_H
Posts: 4744
Joined: Sep 08 2006 8:14 pm
City, State: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Mindless weather chit chat

Post by Jim_H » Jul 01 2019 9:28 am

@chumley
Why, SE is not the Valley, and you know that. It seems pretty logical to assume that since Tucson and Phoenix do not share overlapping forecast regions, and Tucson speaks about this monsoon moisture being mostly south and east of Tucson, that the two separate forecast offices are forecasting and discussing for separate regions, and so can have separate non-agreeing forecast discussions.

Or did you just want to be snarky and contrary?

Either way, the 168 hour QPF supports the PHX more than the Tucson, but there does appear to be a lot of moisture in Mexico, which technically is south and east of Tucson.
Society's constraints are stifling! The only way to hike is fully nude!

Post Reply

Return to “Weather”


cron