Yeah, a 168 hour QPF is typically not all that reliable, but we shall see. Even with a higher level of accuracy for a Pacific Low in January that will affect the Sierra Nevada, there tends to be a lot of variation over that time frame, as you know, Toddy. The models haven't been very reliable for the big predictions over the last month. We shall see.
Looking at the potential rainfall, and realizing that this is more the result of a low dropping into the state from the Great Basin, and moisture from the dead tropical storm, if this does pan out, it raises one question for me. Given how dry the state has been this summer, what kind of benefit will this bring? Flagstaff still reports only 1.24 inches of rain since July 1. How widespread was that kind of pattern?
Assuming other similarly dry areas picked up 1.5+ inches of rain, which would just about saturate most of the soil, with it being so late in the growing season for areas above 3,000 or 4,000', how great is this for most plants? In Phoenix, it probably would help wild flowers out for spring, but with several mid 30s low temperatures already recorded on the Colorado Plateau, it probably doesn't have as much ecological benefit as summer rain in early August would have had.
Then again, last year the early October storms were so wet, that the rocks were leaking trickles of water from their cracks in the Sierra Ancha, so the hydrologic benefits are obvious.