Mindless chit chat

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Jim_H
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Mindless chit chat

Post by Jim_H »

The endless chatter of weather.
Last edited by big_load on Aug 01 2017 9:52 pm, edited 25 times in total.
Enjoying living in interesting times!
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big_load
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by big_load »

big_load wrote: Aug 22 2022 6:27 pm
chumley wrote: Aug 22 2022 3:47 pm @toddak
NOAA is terrible at a lot of things -- including forecasting the weather, sometimes. :)


However, as I never tire of pointing out, the weather in AZ appears inherently much less predictable than in many other areas. That must be well enough established to have been studied and explained. If I weren't so lazy, I'd go look for it. It's just not as captivating as which group of people were attacking which other group of people seven hundred years ago and why.
Well, I appear to be wrong about the part in bold. According to what I've found so far, the opposite seems to be true. I have to do some analysis to test my other hypotheses.
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FOTG
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by FOTG »

@RedRoxx44
An interesting link regarding the dam, still a 100 plus feet below what they qualify as a "minor flood stage." But oddly enough only 8 feet separate minor flood from "major flood stage.' This is my first time with this link, so I might be interpreting it wrong too, although, the pattern is clear, that reservoir is rising fast!

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l ... mpare=true
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by big_load »

FOTG wrote: Aug 23 2022 8:08 pm @RedRoxx44
An interesting link regarding the dam, still a 100 plus feet below what they qualify as a "minor flood stage." But oddly enough only 8 feet separate minor flood from "major flood stage.' This is my first time with this link, so I might be interpreting it wrong too, although, the pattern is clear, that reservoir is rising fast!

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l ... mpare=true
Part of it may be that once it reaches flood stage, the volume increase per unit depth increase is greater than in low water. Of course that depends on the specific topology/bathymetry.

I was pondering this yesterday when listening to a radio show about the Kentucky floods in which they mentioned increasing minimum ground floor elevations from 100-year flood level to two feet above that. Without seeing that depth/volume relationship, I wouldn't feel confident about that increase buying much security. I'd think even harder if I were paying to raise my house, since I suspect the extra cost of going up another foot or two would pale in comparison to the cost of those first two feet.
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RedRoxx44
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 »

That dam is old and decrepit and was slated for some major repairs according to a news release 2017 but I did not follow up to see if something was actually done. It's architecturally a pretty dam to me but not sure how that affects the function. Apparently the majority of the flow from this monsoon had not reached San Carlos lake yet.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

The Tucson airport finally caught up with some surrounding areas and is now above normal for the monsoon. Sky Harbor is .24" low. All the other major recording sites statewide are above normal for the monsoon to date (Nogales, Safford, Sierra Vista, Willcox, Picacho Peak, Ajo, Gila Bend, Globe, AJ, Tacna, Parker, Yuma, Kingman, Flagstaff, Page, Prescott, Show Low, and Winslow).

The statewide map shows very few pockets that are running below normal. I removed the color from everything above 125% of normal. Some pockets of the southeast valley, the crest of the Mazzies, a bit of the Mogollon Rim, and some dots south and east of Tucson are at or just slightly below normal for the season to date. I believe that the information in the northeast plateaus may be unreliable indicators as these are radar estimates and coverage there is sparse.

Still interesting to see. Short term looks to be drying out, but will there be one last hurrah before the season ends and ushers in that dry cool autumn air?
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by rwstorm »

@chumley
Yes indeed, the last two storms (Aug 23 & 25) at The Tucson airport gave them an additional 1.77, while at my place (only 4 miles away) a mere .63 fell. Both of us have been underachievers so far this summer. The monsoon season total at TIA this year to date is 4.13, while at my house it is 4.14. Not very impressive when you consider the whole state. Last year for the same time period the total at my house was 10.78 inches! :o It just goes to show the hit and miss nature of convective activity. PS: at least my roof isn't leaking. :)
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by LosDosSloFolks »

Be thankful it's not snowing...
Imagine shoveling snow in this heat.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Happy First Day of Fall!
:FG:
I really don't understand how astronomical seasons became the de facto thing in this country. But since this is a weather chat, we'll go with the more logical meteorological definition. #science

I, for one, noticed an extra cold chill in the air this morning!
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by Alston_Neal »

Up at Horton Creek today we enjoyed the leaf fall. Although I suspect it had to do with thousands of caterpillars. Horton seemed extra special today, no people or lightning.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

HurriKAYne incoming!
:y:
Get the sandbags!
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Dry air is on the way.

One could argue that the monsoon ended a couple of weeks ago as the tropical moisture from Kay is not really monsoonal. But it did give PHX (and my house) the best storm of the season on Sunday evening. And for now, PHX is just above average at the airport, while much of the rest of the valley is well above normal.

I think azbackpackr's New Mexico friend's theory about an early start resulting in a lackluster season did not pan out this year as most of the state is well above normal. Hopefully we can get the scraps from another tropical system or two this fall, and as always, dreams of a deep snowpack this winter.

After last summer's oppressive record heat, a very welcome change was the moderation of temperatures. Most of August was below normal and you won't find me complaining about that!
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by PatrickL »

It has been one of the more tolerable summers in recent memory. So much better than blazing hot, cloudless days.
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 »

Weather services are predicting a third in a row La Nina winter pattern, above normal temps and drier; for the southwest. Apparently that has happened only twice since the 1950's I believe. I am glad I was wrong about this years' monsoon, but my little subdivision got what I consider not a lot of rain, and it was very spotty down south, where I frequent.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Are they still claiming it's the monsoon? Regardless, what a delightful September meteorological event.
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by RedRoxx44 »

Looks like Hurricane Ian is going to make landfall near where my parents used to live. Ugh, still have memories of post Fri 13th Hurricane Charlie in 2004.
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LosDosSloFolks
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by LosDosSloFolks »

@RedRoxx44
I've got friends in Englewood and on Sanibel. Doesn't look good for that area.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

Is it still monsoon? By calendar, no. By dewpoint readings ... we're running above the classic thresholds again. But there's also some cooler autumn air in the mix. And showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the high terrain for at least the next week. Strange pattern for October. Thankfully, Gila Bend remains intact.
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by big_load »

Autumn hit NJ as if a switch was thrown. We had highs in the 80s and lows in the mid-60s until the last week of September, when temps dropped like a rock and the precipitation came back. No more shorts or short-sleeved shirts for me this year, except in AZ.
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by PatrickL »

75 degrees on the drive home tonight. Felt so good with the windows down.
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chumley
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Re: Mindless chit chat

Post by chumley »

@PatrickL Low of 69 at PHX ... first time under 70 since May 23.
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