HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Encinosa Falls in Oak Creek was flowing well on Monday.
http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=175047

I see that Ski the Lemmon has suspended skiing until they might get more snow. My guess is that can happen pretty often except in years like 2010. I wonder if the larger resorts would have to do that, and if they would reopen?

Snowbowl now has a weather station at the top of the Agassiz lift. Given that there is no other higher land in the state, and outside of the Peaks, it is the highest reporting station in the state.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MAT907
http://www.arizonasnowbowl.com/winter/snow_report.php

I knew it had been warm up there, and windy.

Could end up being Flag's 2nd driest January on record.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/Dry_Ja ... hp?wfo=fgz

And we have a wind advisory in effect for tomorrow. It is beginning to look a lot like March or April, and not January.

It's just a little windy out today. Snowbowl is closed for the day due to the high winds. The weather station at the top of the Agassiz Lift is reporting a 55 MPH wind with gust to 72. Not a day for Humphrey, unless you love wind.

With 8 days left in the month and it being a full week out on the forecast horizon, the NWS is forecasting the salvation for January, on the very last day. We'll see....

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE NORTH ON JANUARY 31ST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OUR LAST
CHANCE TO AVOID ONE OF THE DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR FLAGSTAFF
WITH ONLY A TRACE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL REPORTED SO FAR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Plenty of snow here- I am currently visiting my family in Chicago and it was -4 when we landed on Friday. What's worse is everyone keeps telling me I'm a wuss for being cold. Today the sky is so overcast that you can barely tell where the snow stops and the sky begins. My favorite Chicago quote: "It makes you appreciate the summer more." I say they're suckas and I look forward to leaving this frigid, flat place and getting back to the desert where I belong!

@sirena

-4 ain't nothin' in Chicago! When it starts dipping down to -22, then it's getting cold...

Of course, I have no intention of ever going back there so what do I know!? I live in SoCal where frost makes headlines!!

NWS PHX posted this graphic yesterday. I find it interesting that 15% of Januarys in recorded history* have been rain-free. And the 60s-70s looked particularly arid.
* I make fun of this since 115 years of recording this kind of data is a relative drop in the bucket. (pun intended)

Looks like Flagstaff probably won't get anything more this month, or nothing respectable. Things will turn around eventually and we'll probably get something in February. I hope so. If we don't, I think Snowbowl will be forced to close early and that might complicate mountain access at times. It definitely isn't looking like the banner winter that it appeared it would be in December. California is still OK, but they have been warm and dry for the month. They don't get the summer rain like us, so they probably need February and march to turn around and be wet. I like these warm sunny days, but after a while with nothing, you start to want it to snow and be gloomy for a little while. Still, after 2010 when Flagstaff was almost 5 inches above normal for the calendar year (despite long dry periods and the big fires) a drier than normal year won't be horrible.

From the graphic, it looks like January of last year was one of the wettest in 17 years.

I just looked at Arizona's Snowtel observations. Except for the inner basin, everywhere has less than 2 feet. Last year at this time, every station in the state had a snowpack over 4 feet. We better get a couple of storms, including a good one in the spring, or it's gonna be a nasty fire season up north.

Ironically, last year was very wet, but the fire season in June was quite bad. The Eagle Rock, the Hardy and then the Schultz Fire were all after the wettest winter since 2005. This year reminds me a lot of the 2008-2009 winter when it was also very wet at the end of December but then pretty warm and dry in January. Nothing like this year, but I remember it similarly. Hardly any fires that spring from the freakish May and June rains, but then a few fires that summer due to the near complete absence of the monsoon.

They are starting to talk about a storm again this coming Sunday to Monday period, but they have low confidence in the forecast as the models have apparently been inconsistent. If we don't get anything or much of anything, we might get lucky as we did in 2009 and have a big mid-February storm. It would greatly improve the snow on the Peaks for Snowbowl and me so I can do Humphrey again.

In a shocker ... New York City has received more snowfall in January 2011 than the current snow depth on all but the highest elevations of the peaks!

*****************MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORDS******************

...SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD...

Code: Select all

...CLIMATE SITE...    ...OLD RECORD...     ...JANUARY 2011 TOTAL*...
CENTRAL PARK         27.4 INCHES (1925)          36.0 INCHES
NEWARK               31.6 INCHES (1996)          37.3 INCHES
LAGUARDIA            27.6 INCHES (1996)          32.4 INCHES
BRIDGEPORT           26.2 INCHES (1965)          41.8 INCHES
ISLIP                21.5 INCHES (2005)          34.2 INCHES

*MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF 7 AM JANUARY 27 2011

chumley wrote:New York City has received more snowfall in January 2011 than the current snow depth on all but the highest elevations of the peaks

And NYC lies outside the heavier northeast snowbelt. We got a foot last night out of a predicted 1-3 inches that was upgraded to 5-8. More snow expected the next two days. Most NJ towns had gone through their entire winter snow removal budget a week ago and there are two and half months left of snow season.

The NWS is calling for 1 to 3 inches of snow in town and 2 to 5 on the Peaks at higher elevations. I guess it's better than nothing, but not much better.

How is the desert these days? Despite our low snow fall/ precipitation amounts this last month, the soil is still pretty wet, even in lower elevation areas like Sedona. How about down low? It must be rather dry with warm, sunny days, next to no soil, and the lack of moisture.

Well, looks like it will hold off until Monday so I can get outside tomorrow, but does not look like enough snow to close public school on Monday or Tuesday. I have not yet driven my latest school bus in the snow. Look out, Flagstaff!

The Peaks could see up to 8 inches. It will be a dry powdery snow, but that would be nice. Up to 8 niches, but at 11,500', not 9,300'. Fremont anyone? John C?

530 a.m. Monday and the stars are shining brightly in Flagstaff. Dry as the proverbial bone. It isn't even windy.

Snow started in town around 8:30 or so. Now almost 9:30, it is sticking well at my place near Switzer Canyon Rd.

The forecast was revised and now it's up to 2 inches on the Peaks. Snowbowl reports a trace, and we have around an inch. We got about all we will get. Come on February.

We got about 9 flakes last night in Prescott. If you look closely enough you can see them