HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

big_load wrote:I stayed home for the first week and holed up in my office for most of the second. Unfortunately, I didn't get as much rest as I should have, because I couldn't hire anybody to shovel the driveway, which I've had to do three times since I got sick. Most of the pros aren't accepting new customers, or only taking what they think are easy jobs.

Got any neighborhood teenagers? There might be one that still knows something about earning a buck through hard work. I shoveled driveways as a kid. Beats the crap out of Wii. (Or ColecoVision if I'm talking about those days...)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Looks like we might finally get the February storm I've been hoping would occur.

paulhubbard wrote:I don't know if it's the altitude, the attitude, or just perception, but 25 degrees in Flagstaff and 25 degrees in Phoenix seem vastly different. In Flag that would require a jacket and maybe some gloves, but in Phoenix it feels like you're going to freeze to death.

Same here. I think it is a wimp factor. You get used to the warm weather, and can't take the cold anymore. My last week in Wisconsin, in early 2004, it was -- no exagerration -- -13 below every morning. (So sayeth the bank I drove by.) I wore a windbreaker. Here, it gets down to 70 and I feel cold. Time to parka up. Visited Maryland over Christmas, it was about 34, and I like to die ...

I have also realized how easy it is to become acclimatized to local weather. The last few weeks I've worn polo shirts to work with no problem, but was amazed when I checked Weather.com soon after arriving at the office to discover that it's 45 degrees. I moved to here in the East Bay in late August when it was quite warm (for NoCal), and people acted like Godzilla was wading ashore out of San Francisco Bay when it got above 100 (which it did a few times), but it felt like nothing to me. Of course I'll probably be miserable once it gets above 85 this next August. However, don't fret because I'm sure that I'll be driving around with my car's windows rolled-down until at least mid-August

Godzilla wading ashore? Wouldn't he come across the mountains from Nevada?

Looks like it could be more of a weekend event, instead of on Thursday.

AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHER AND
COVER MORE OF THE NORTHLAND THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE EARLY THURSDAY.

I do hope we get this, and it is a pretty good storm. I think I would still like to hike Humphrey once more this winter, and we need snow for that.

A SECOND COLDER AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE FOOT ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF LIQUID WATER SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

LONG RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW A THIRD TROUGH MOVING INTO ARIZONA
NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

So today isn't looking like much, but the weekend should finally bring a good storm to Arizona. It's only been 6 or 7 weeks, but I guess better late than never. I have doubts about the 3rd storm, as they tend to not materialize. Not in past years at least. After January's abysmally dry run, a storm with a foot of snow and an inch of liquid equivalent will seem like a deluge. In Sedona yesterday it was really dry, so this will be welcome. I imagine it is really dry in the desert. Are flowers even a possibility this year?

Looks like the early estimate is 10-14". While that's nothing to complain about, I sure would like to see something in the 20-30+ range...

Well, 14 inches in Flagstaff could be 30 on the Peaks, so it's still pretty good.

Hope the roads are plowed when I am driving back from Lee's Ferry on Sunday...

It keeps getting better. I hope it pans out, check
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
again. We have close to 2 inches possible. A real lot for Senior Lyding, and California, but then that's expected.

Forecast now calling for 17-29" at the highest elevations. I hope that works out.

We had a good deal of rain overnight, and then some slushy snow on that. I have about 2 inches of slush by my place. The airport reports almost an inch of liquid.

Despite the "100% chance of showers" this morning, it's partly sunny, with no rain so far. (I'll hold off 12 minutes before being really critical of the meaning of 100% chance)

Well, the Flagstaff airport reports snow and 1 and 1/4 inches of liquid equivalent, but it has switched back to rain at my apartment (elevation 6880'). I actually like that it is rain, and if the snow line is just above me, then that is great because that means it is a dense, wet snow and it is probably falling heavily on the Peaks, so Humphrey is getting a good base on the rocks again.

We switched back to a pretty good snow, so maybe the cold front is starting to come through. It is supposed to pass by in the 12 to 2 pm time frame.

Jim, please keep me updated. I am wondering if I can get back to Flag on Sunday. I am at Marble Canyon. It is great here, but I have a class on Sunday night at NAU Pool. I would hate also to make a dangerous drive back there only to find the class cancelled, so I will try emailing or calling the teacher as well. I also know how to look at ADOT 511. If class is cancelled I'll just stay here until Monday.

The snow is pretty dense and wet and we've had 1.81 inches of liquid equivalent so far. Given February's normal of 2.56 inches, we might get close to a normal monthly total with this one storm. I just cleared around 6 to 8 inches of very heavy, wet snow, which included a 3 inch base of dense slush, from my car. I doubt we will make 10 inches of snow, but we are at least getting wet for the first time in over 7 weeks, or since the storm at the end of December.

US 89 from Cameron to Flag ought to be OK by tomorrow afternoon. The snow appears to have only a couple of hours of this heavy stuff left.

I had to switch my wipers from the longest delay on intermittent to "low" for a few minutes so that's almost news. :roll:

Snowbowl reporting 21" so far... That's sweet news!
Hopefully another foot + by the end of tomorrow...