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Forecast Mormon Grove & Peeley

Crews looking for missing hiker
By Alexis Bechman

November 16, 2010
Tonto Rim Search and Rescue volunteers and Gila County Sheriff officers are currently searching for an overdue hiker.

The man, whose name has not been released, was last heard from nine days ago and is believed to be hiking near the Mt. Peeley trail or Sheep Mountain, off Forest Road 201, southwest of Payson.

The Gila County Sheriff’s Office first received a call that the man was overdue Monday, Nov. 15 about 9 p.m.

“The hiker has not been heard from since Nov. 7 and frequents the Mazatzal Mountain Wilderness area,” according to a press release from the sheriff’s office.

The missing hiker’s vehicle was located at the Mt. Peeley trailhead.



Six TRSAR volunteers are currently searching the ground. Earlier Tuesday, a Department of Public Safety Ranger helicopter did an aerial search of the area, but found no signs of the man

@imike
Eric(Ssk45) was carrying a spot on Friday....but I don't think he ever had it turned on. You may want to pm him if he doesn't see this and ask him.

imike wrote:When is the Spring thaw for that area?

SarcasticDwarf wrote:Can anyone take a guess at when in the spring the snow and weather would normally clear up?

This YR2010 it was ~4/xx/10:
(gpsjoe posted his triplog comments from his 4/27/10 "Sheep Mtn Summit Hike" attempt from Peeley TH per the below.. There is a section of FR201 between the Peeley TH and the Davey Gowan TH/TR48 that holds snow due to 100% shade in this area in winter, so the snow melts some in the daytime on FR201 and then freezes at night, so you are greeted with ice and snow (on a one way section of road) coming into the Peeley TH in the mornings.. I know because in 2006 I managed to get three women and me stuck in one of their Honda CR-V's for 2.5hrs before we finally pushed and pulled our way out )

"GPSJoe's triplog from April...

The snow is gone, the trails are completely dry and the downed tree blocking access to the Mount Peeley TH has been cleared. So the pool is open.

I made another unsuccessful attempt to reach Sheep Mountain. This time my GPS said I was 0.35 miles (straight line) from the summit. What does me in on this hike is not the terrain but rather the low vegetation - Manzanita, Cactus, other stuff.

The approach I have tried is to go past the Mt Peeley summit turnoff on the Divide trail for just over 1/2 mile and turn left to gain the ridgeline which is only 200 yards (straight line) from the trail there. The first half mile of off trail hiking to the ridgeline is relatively easy since the forest floor is clear for hiking. After that the hiking becomes tough. The ridgeline involves class 3 scrambling and rock climbing and that is not the tough part. It is the low vegetation that eventually does me in. I made it to peak 6910 and beyond just before Sheep Mountain.

You need to be a little crazy to try this one but I know there are some crazies out there."

Grasshopper wrote:"GPSJoe's triplog from April...

The snow is gone, the trails are completely dry and the downed tree blocking access to the Mount Peeley TH has been cleared. So the pool is open.

Okay.... If needed, I'll plug in the month of April for a renewed search... I'd like to think it won't be necessary.

In response to some of the queries regarding long-term weather for the Mt. Peely area:

This area is very dependent on the kind of winter that Arizona gets. It could be mostly snow-free all winter, or it could be under a foot or more of snow for several weeks at a time. It would be extremely unlikely for it to be "snowed-in" all winter.

The peak of Mt. Peeley, Sheep Mtn, and the ridge are approximately 6,800-7,000 feet in elevation. While accumulating snowfall can occur down to about 4,000 feet, anything below 6,000 feet typically lasts only a few days before melting. The Mt. Peely Trailhead is at 5,600 feet, but FR201 reaches almost 6,200 feet on its way to the trailhead. While I don't believe that FR201 is ever officially closed, it is possible that it may become impassable during the days and weeks after a snowstorm.

Most of the winter, the south and west facing slopes in the area will be snow-free. North-facing slopes will accumulate more snow during storms and it will melt much more slowly. Shaded drainages may have snow in them for several weeks after snowstorms. A few hundred feet in elevation can make a huge difference in conditions on the ground. There could be a foot of snow at the 6,200ft high-point on FR201, while the trailhead at 5,600ft may be bare.

For Arizona hikers familiar with Four Peaks, the Peely TH is very similar to the Lone Pine TH. There are times of winter where it is accessible, and others that its not. There are times that it looks dry, but as you progress on your hike up toward Browns, you realize that there's some deep snow on the back side of the peaks. These are the same kind of conditions you can expect on Peely. It is very dependent on the kind of winter we have.

There are no remote weather stations in this part of the Mazatzals, but I'm copying some data from the averages at Crown King. I've selected Crown King because its elevation is similar (5,900), and it is located in a similar mountainous topography.

Crown King, AZ 1970-2000 Averages Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Average Max. Temperature (F) 55.9 50.2 49.0 52.5 57.8 65.5
Average Min. Temperature (F) 30.0 26.1 25.5 27.2 30.4 35.5
Average Total Precipitation (in.) 2.40 3.32 4.25 4.51 3.40 1.33

The condensed version of all that is that access to the area will most likely be available for much of the winter, with occasional periods where snow impedes access.

As for today's storm, radar shows that they've been getting good rain today, with the snow level dropping to around 5,500 feet overnight. Accumulating snow will likely be 6 inches or less and despite a cool week ahead should be melted in the next few days.

This photoset from February 2007 nicely illustrates the kind of diverse conditions typical of winter in this area. North slopes snowy, south slopes dry and rocky.
http://hikearizona.com/photoset.php?ID=3317

Grasshopper wrote:Here's the link to the SPOT thread
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3072
Hank

Thanks, Hank... I can't imagine what this situation is like from your perspective... I know we all accept the risks inherent to our being out and about, but when it comes home to roost like this...? I've stuck 4-6 weeks into my schedule for April/May to do a daily search pattern...

see my photoset from February. conditions this weekend are prolly very similar to these shown: http://hikearizona.com/photoset.php?ID=10211

because the last couple of miles of 201 are in shade, snow will stick there for weeks. i delayed this hike for 3 weeks and the roads were still not passable in my 4x4 with a 2" lift. i was in no mood to slide down a steep grade and over the edge of a 100' deep ravine.

nonot wrote:As far as I am aware, SAR has searched
Mazzie Divide Trail to Sheep Ridge, and Sheep Ridge to Sheep Mtn Summit
Heli-dropped onto Sheep Mtn Summit and searching within 0.3 miles of the summit
Helidropped onto Sheep Mtn Ridge and searching of (inexact) drainages on the south and southeast side of Sheep Mtn.

As of the close on Sat-11/20pm for "official" Maricopa and Gila County Sheriff Dept- SAR Mountain Patrol Div concentrated SAR efforts ended, I would agree with your above understanding with the following clarifications:
.. Canine units with handlers have hiked and searched from Peeley TH on TR23 to off trail to summit Mt. Peeley and on top circumference area of Mt. Peeley;
..Canine units with handlers and/or other SAR team members have also searched certain sections of Cornucopia TR86 and Thicket Spring TR95(in from 86/95 intersection);
..Ref- HAZ Home Page- "MAP" link for our GPSjoe continuing search efforts: At close of day Sat-11/20pm, it was my understanding that between start of SAR activities on 11/16am to 11/20pm, the SAR teams had hiked/searched ALL GPS tracks noted on this HAZ Home Page key reference "MAP";
..I do question how much search was accomplished by SAR teams in the rugged and can be risky MAP section track named "Climb" which runs ~SW between Mt. Peeley Summit and the Sheep Mtn. Ridgeline area (on his way back this track area could have been a "bailout route" for Joe as a last resort);
..Also, any and all qualified and properly equipped HAZ and AZH strong and advanced hikers with a high tolerance for pain who would consider attempting a search for clues, etc.. within the rugged and major vegetation area of between Thicket Spring TR95 and Cornucopia TR86 to the base of Sheep Mtn's south and SE sections is in my estimation a very important area for needed concentrated search efforts. I say this because Joe could have used the south and/or SE exit areas from the summit of Sheep Mtn as another "bailout route" to try to reach some official trail-TR95 or TR86 then back to Peeley TH; This actually happened to him on one of his first Sheep Mtn attempts on 11/16/09- He exited the ridgeline at peak 6834 close to nightfall and intermittently moved down the side of the mtn in sections throughout the entire night (probably to keep warm). He got back to his car at 10 AM the following day. Any reservations about the perseverance, determination, and yes stubbornness of our GPSjoe should be put to rest with this 11/09 summit attempt. We just can't assume anything with him and he does love to try new things and new challenges.. thus, one of his reasons for signing-up with me to do that tough re-routing of the "Davey Gowan Loop" hike on 11/1/10.. my last time with him as a hiking partner.

Tough_Boots wrote:

hikngrl wrote:It is DANGEROUS on this road.visibility is less than 5 ft in front of truck it is rain/hailing. Please do not put your life on the line today.

This is reaching a new level of depressing. That area is no place to be in that weather.

Also, thanks whoever is putting up everything on the main page. Before I could figure out how to get my route up there, it appeared. Great job!

It looks like HAZ hasn't hit Thicket Springs trail but now its all ours. I imagine someone will head up there during the week. If anyone wants to head up this coming weekend, I'd be down for going. I might need to meet up with someone with a sturdier ride depending on how this weather effects the road.

I can confirm that Denny and I did do a careful search of all of Thicket Spring Trail. We picked it up from Sheep Creek Trail (#88) all the way to Cornucopia (#88), to get back to Peeley. It was so thick even on the trail in places that is was a bushwhack. We looked as far out as we could in each direction, but unfortunately that's not saying much, as you could see from a few pictures I posted along this trail nearest Sheep Mountain. It's a holly, manzanita & catclaw jungle.

SUN_HIKER wrote:Well, Randy I owned a Spot when they first came out. Joe and I tested it in the desert and in the forest. We found it to be unreliable at that time. In the forest it became virtually useless due to foliage. The other thing we didn't like with the Spot was that it's only a one way communication and you had no confirmation that a signal that was sent out was actually received. (one could send out a distress signal thinking help was on the way, when in reality it was not received)

We had my husband tracking us only to find out that only a fraction of the signals were received.
Because most of our hikes were in the forest, I discontinued Spot and instead when we went to places in WY etc. rented a Iridium Sat. phone.

I may go back and check out the newer spots as I'm told they have improved their antenna quite a bit.

SUN_HIKER, I hear the SPOT 2 has better receptivity. Just ordered mine, so haven't field tested it yet. I would think that its reception wouldn't be any different than a standard GPS would be, although each GPS has varying levels of how well it picks up satellite signals I guess.

Hank,
glancing at the map, all the GPS routes appear concentrated along trails and top ridgelines... have the drainages and ridges to the south all been walked? I would normally first hike the base of any cliffline, cutting and clearing a through path, then begin hiking all the drainages... then the adjoining ridges.... then micro dividing those areas hiking traversing paths (probably cutting and clearing paths to facilitate access).

It would be nice to know if at least each drainage has been walked, along with it's adjoining ridges...

chumley wrote:The condensed version of all that is that access to the area will most likely be available for much of the winter, with occasional periods where snow impedes access.

I do agree and particularly easier and more often will have winter access days on the tricky, more shaded sections of FR201 if you have a longer wheel base vehicle(truck,full size SUV), decent tread tires (not fu-fu CR-V street tires and/or all wheel drive..ha-ha) and with 4-wheel drive will usually get you there unless you meet someone coming the opposite direction

Grasshopper wrote:

chumley wrote:The condensed version of all that is that access to the area will most likely be available for much of the winter, with occasional periods where snow impedes access.

I do agree and particularly easier and more often will have winter access days on the tricky, more shaded sections of FR201 if you have a longer wheel base vehicle(truck,full size SUV), decent tread tires (not fu-fu CR-V street tires and/or all wheel drive..ha-ha) and with 4-wheel drive will usually get you there unless you meet someone coming the opposite direction

What is the walkin mileage if you are camped closer down to the main road? I have a small Acorn trailer, very low clearance, but hiking or biking in for an hour or so each day would not really be all that bad... if it would get me into the proper range area for a search.

imike wrote:It would be nice to know if at least each drainage has been walked, along with it's adjoining ridges...

I really don't know this kind-of detail. I would imagine a few have partially and maybe the helicopter was over a few of these, but..

I just wish the Maricopia Sheriff Dept-Mountain Rescue- Operations Chief would consider posting his 4th here to help clarify and confirm or deny what is best for us (HAZ and AZH) to proceed from here..

The SPOT 2 (or whatever the second generation device is called) has proved quite effective in my experience, maybe they upgraded the antenna. I know Sirena carrys one in track mode, so maybe she'll weigh in here. I''ve only used it in "OK" mode, that is, where it sends a message only when you tell it to.

Their web site is much improved over the past few months, with tutorial videos and the like.

This whole thing has changed my thinking about the SPOT and other safety equipment. If we want something good out of all this, I submit it could be the realization that these kind of safety devices are not for the hiker as much as for those who care about the hiker at home. A lost hiker in Track mode is going to be sending the coordinates every ten minutes, and rescurers would easily know where that is. There is some expense, but I belive if we can afford the gear to hike, and get to the TH's, we can afford these things.

It's also been suggested that the board serve as some kind of informmation center for people heading out alone, I think that idea has merit but suspect there are some serious liablilty issues involved. Also, some increased responsibility on the hikers' part to follow up when they get home. Obviously, telling family or friends personally where you are going and when you expect to be back is preferred.

imike wrote: It would be nice to know if at least each drainage has been walked, along with it's adjoining ridges...

Yea, I'm also thinking those southern drainages & ridges should be descended though it won't be any easy 'walk' by any means and they might be snow free thru most of the winter. Nonot, had a good idea to also check the northside of the ridgeline over on the eastside near where it connects with the divide trail though that would need to be checked soon before it becomes possibly covered in snow for the season... ;)

I just wish the Maricopia Sheriff Dept-Mountain Rescue- Operations Chief would consider posting his 4th here to help clarify and confirm or deny what is best for us (HAZ and AZH) to proceed from here..

Dave Bremson with CAMRA/MCSO Mtn. Rescue has been in a Search Management class all weekend thru Mon. I am sure he will get back to you as soon as he can.

Thx

Ed

be nice to have a shadowed grid illustrating the areas that have been walked, though if the visibility is as bad as expressed, might not matter... rewalking areas could spot something missed on a prior examination. I'm a bit conflicted on whether to wait until April or head over after the first of the year. Even a bit of snow in the drainage cuts makes it way more dangerous... not my favorite to go postholing through into debris...

Maybe not a bad investment purchasing a SPOT. I know my wife doesnt want me going out alone for this reason. Humm.

Buying the DeLorme Spot combo tomorrow.

I did not know Joe personally, but my hiking friends and I benefited from his information several times in our hikes. In particular, we used his GPS track to find our way up to the summit of Mt. Peeley. And the information for a hike to the cinnabar ore mines near Sunflower and the old mercury processing plant came from Joe. I have exchanged notes with him on HAZ several times.

My thoughts and hopes go out to him.