HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Agreed. We live in a desert. It can't ever be too wet.

Speaking of rain, we had some very light rain this morning. Just nuisance rain, though. Monday night, the point forecast for my dwelling is for 2 to 4 inches of snow. I would prefer 1/3 of an inch of rain, but I guess that is still good to get. I hope it's nice for Lee's Ferry, but after 9 days with no activity (if I can't get out Monday or Tuesday) hiking is hard these days. Lately, I've experienced something I have not experience since I moved to AZ: sore muscles for a day or two after even easy hikes(<15 miles or < 4000' of AEG). Frankly, it's embarrassing to do the equivalent of Elden or Kendrick and have muscle fatigue the next day. I never had that in Flagstaff, but then I was able to get out more.

RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT...AND SATURATION
WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK MESA. THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU IS FORECAST TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATER
ON TODAY...AND FOR THAT REASON A SNOW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ABOVE 5500
FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO START AT AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER STRONGER...COLDER...AND BETTER SATURATED STORM SYSTEM IS DUE
FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND AFFECTING TRAVEL.

They mention BM! Maybe Kayenta will get some spill over? Either way, the next storm might be a decent precipitater.

We have seven inches of fresh snow on the ground here in NJ. I was in Tucson and Phoenix on Tuesday and part of Wednesday and saw a good bit of standing water on the drive between them. Snow would have been prettier, but it would probably would have killed our schedule.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER
PRODUCING MORE LIFT...BETTER INSTABILITY...AND MORE MOISTURE LEADING
TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THEN THIS PAST WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THIS IS A GOOD SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW
ADVISORIES...SO STAY TUNED. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...AS A
RESULT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY COOL TO
COLD CONDITIONS.

Good, maybe some areas that need snow and rain will get it. We had some pretty good rain out here yesterday, and some decent snow, too. It was really welcome, as it stopped the blowing dust. The wind was so bad, it was blowing dust into the ER yesterday. Then, the rain started blowing into the vestibule, and we had mud. Good times. B.M. and Skeleton Mesa have nice coatings of fresh snow on them.

While there are still 60 and 90 day long term deficits, a lot of places like CA, UT, WY, and CO picked up some much needed snow. I'm no lover of winter, but if it must be winter, I'm glad there are finally some storms to deliver the precipitation places normally get during this most heinous of seasons.

Hope the winter turns around, gets more precip in the Whites. It was far too dry there this past year. I hear that at Sunrise the skiing is great right now, lots of powder, not many people. The only problem I heard about was that it was very windy. That could pass in a few days, though.

Dry season right now in Costa Rica. Not a drop of rain since I arrived. Although it is north of the equator, of course, January is nevertheless considered to be summer here, because it rains all the time during the actual summer, and it's a lot cooler at that time. This is THE time to be at the beach in Costa Rica.

8-16" in the latest forecast for the highest spots. Let's hope it turns out that way. Looks like it's about to begin in Flagstaff right about now.

We had snow up here from about 3PM to 6, and then lighter for a little longer, maybe to 9 or 10. Very light, actually. Either way, the earlier stuff melted, and once it started accumulating we ended up with about 2 to 3 inches around my house. With the moderate (for here) rain we had Saturday, we probably had about 4/10 to maybe 6/10 of an inch of liquid over the last few days. That is just a guess, as I have no rain gauge and MVHS is way too far away and much lower to use any kind of reliable number for here. I guess I should try to get a rain gauge from the rainlog place for summer. I greatly prefer the rain below 6,000', but we got a nice 3+ inches of new snow on the mesa to make that look prettier.

Last night Safford had a brief 15 minute lightning storm with a few cloud to ground strikes followed by light rain as I went to bed! I can't remember ever seeing/hearing lightning in January before out here!!! Woke up today to see that the storm added a new layer of snow on Mt Graham. Anyone else see lightning last night, Tucson area?

The North Rim reported 6". Looks like Flagstaff and the Rim didn't get more than 2-3" max. Snowbowl only got 3", and Sunrise 5-6".

While welcome from the last month of nothing, those are some pretty paltry totals from a January storm.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... GZ&pil=PNS

Flagstaff airport reported 1/2 of an inch.

Sheez. So much for river season on the Salt, Verde, etc. If we end up with two non-rafting seasons in a row on the Upper Salt, might be enough to make the commercials think twice about investing in it, taking reservations, etc. Now, some people might like that. A lot of people complain about the fact there are SO many commercials, and they complain that all the companies that set up shop, I think there are 4 or 5 of them, are from out of state. I myself don't like to see river guides out of a job.

Did anyone get rain in the Valley at all? South Scottsdale got nothing in the last 4 days..... What a wimpy storm.

Nada in East Mesa

Here in the east Mojave, we got a few mm, but nothing like hoped for.

yet another light dusting of snow and freezing rain here yesterday... not enough to matter, but it provided a highlight moment this morning as the conditions were just right for massive sublimation... hazy clouds filled all the canyons at the same moment... over in an instant!

It's a La Nina winter, so we can expect nuisance storms and little real precip. At least California got something, but they are still only at 40% to 50% of normal for the winter, or roughly the last 60 days. I think Kayenta got about normal for the last 2 to 3 months, but I'm further north. I'm sick of winter, and can't believe it isn't spring. I want warmth and sun. I normally get sick of winter in late February or early March, but winter started early this year, so I got sick of it earlier. I would like more precip, but rain, not snow. However, I almost feel like who cares if we get more of anything? Afterall, it will dry out even only a few weeks after 2 inches of rain or a foot of snow, and then the wind will pick up, and the dust storms will rip across the region. So, if we're going to get dust reguardless, why not just have warm sunny days and skip the mud and cold?

People I know who live in Flag have been telling me they are very concerned about the possibility of fires next summer. A big Wallow-type fire, if it got going in the right conditions, could make a real big mess out of parts of Flagstaff. The USFS had better step up their prescribed burning and thinning.

Ah, Flagstaff fear mongering. Next you'll be reminding us of how they like to talk about how we really shouldn't be living in the desert ( I met one recently), but it's OK to live in Flagstaff because they don't get water from the Colorado, and how anything over 70 is hot.

2010 was a very wet winter, and yet we had the Schultz Fire. 2007 was a very dry winter, and a dry spring, but we had virtually no fires. I just mention that because I can. In Flagstaff, 2011 was a drier winter, but spring was moist in both April and May, and March wasn't too bad if I recall correctly. Flag had no real fires. It was dry in both winter and spring in eastern AZ and all of New Mexico, and they had several large fires. Spring has more to do with fire season, and a month of dry windy weather can erase the soil moisture from the forested areas and get it ready for a nice fire. It wouldn't matter so much if there weren't all those small dense trees, but whatever. Flag had a wet late summer and fall, and the first part of winter into early December was pretty good. I haven't been there since late December about a week after the Solstice, but they had snow on the ground then, and they have had some more since. Once the soil is moist, any more water doesn't benefit much more than the local lakes and recharge the aquifer. That is important, but it won't do much for the trees or fire danger. So, if they're concerned, maybe a February or March storm will quell them.

I'm still betting on a dip in the jet stream, hopefully after my flights back and forth to the far east, and a large, moist storm to benefit southern California, and most of Arizona, but probably only graze the southern part of the state. That is what happened in 2011 after the dry January, and it happened in 2009 after a similarly dry period. You never know, though, as this winter hasn't had any similar storms as those years had in December, and it also hasn't been below zero once this winter. Given my tenure in Flagstaff, that is very rare. In fact, it seemed we were far more likely to be below zero in a given year, than to meet or exceed 90 degrees. 2009 and 2007 were the exceptions.

Dry winters can definitely affect the fire conditions, but I've learned that a single storm that drops widespread rain of about 1" between the end of April and the middle of May basically alleviates all risk until the monsoon arrives. It almost doesn't matter what happened over the winter. But if there's no spring storm, then the winter snowpack plays a much greater role in how quickly the forest turns into a tinderbox. But the spring weather, whether it be rain or wind, plays a larger factor.

I'm not saying winter storms don't matter, I'm saying that to a point, they won't benefit the forest and dry springs are far more important than the winter. 2010 is a perfect example of that. It's typical Flagstaff fear mongering that a few dry weeks means everything will burn down, never mind that September to mid-December was nice and wet. Even with Snowbowl's sad conditions, and not seeing the area in over 4 weeks, I bet the soil is moist for the most part.