HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

I'm just hoping there will be a little snow in Zion (a dusting, not feet) the week before Christmas so I can get some pretty wintery pics!

This week's moisture plume flowing into Northern California is the result of an "atmospheric river". It "flows" with more than 15x the amount of water as the Mississippi River!

Read about it here: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... t-20121126

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

I don't know if anyone ever looks at that product, but the 7 day totals in California are pretty impressive. Had it been a little further south, the Peaks might be under a deep layer of snow. Even with the warm nature of the storms, the snow level was still low enough that the peaks above 9,500' - 10,000' would easily have had a lot of snow.

@Jim_H There was some discussion elsewhere about whether this series of storms was really that big a deal. I guess the data says "yes". The "last 7 days" view is interesting.

I think it was a big deal hydrologically, with a lot of rain falling over areas that need virtually any precipitation that they can get. However, most people in places like the mountains of California and the PNW, who just don't see much rain, prefer big snow storms over rain. I think inland areas like Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and parts of northern Utah saw snow, not rain. Isn't 10 inches in 7 days a big deal in most places?

Jim_H wrote: Isn't 10 inches in 7 days a big deal in most places?

It's not unheard of around here, but it's sure something we talk about.

We are supposed to have a small storm coming in on Sunday here.

Thursday/Thursday night. Models seem to indicate a strengthening of the system and the use of the word "significant" in relation to precipitation amounts. We can only hope...

I just looked at the:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Very exciting for AZ, southern California, and a little interesting for the high Sierra. Nothing for New Mexico, though. Not for my area, anyway, maybe the northern mountains which are basically the southern extension of Colorado. However, old Mexico appears to have some potential for rain or snow in the Sierra Madre Occidental and their northern Sky Islands.

Hopefully, this continues to strengthen and turns into the first significant winter snow and rain event for the real southwest-Arizona. Perhaps Tucson and the SE AZ sky islands pick up decent precipitation totals, as well as the Valley, and normally wet locations on the Rim and the Peaks/ Flagstaff. Even if Snowbowl makes snow, the less they need to make the better.

Looks like Kat & I may have some snow scenes in Zion Park next week - calling for snow on Thu-Fri, sunny on Sun-Mon (when we arrive), yay ! Can't wait!

Saw a forecast calling for 3-5 inches of snow on the South Rim Thurs/Fri ... if it's gonna be this cold, it might as well go ahead and snow!

cactuscat wrote:Saw a forecast calling for 3-5 inches of snow on the South Rim Thurs/Fri ... if it's gonna be this cold, it might as well go ahead and snow!

I agree. I felt for many years growing up and living in Montana and even more now, if it's gonna be cold, there better be some snow I can see.

18 for the low in Alamogordo, 9 or 10 in Flagstaff. That isn't enough elevation temperature difference. How do the palms live here? I'm really surprised how cold the Chihuahua desert is, but then it is in the mid-4000' range. A similar elevation over in Arizona would almost always be pinyon-juniper, like Sedona.

Looks like increasing precipitation amounts for southern California and Arizona, with perhaps a foot of snow for Flagstaff. Surprisingly, not too much more for the Peaks.

The peaks don't need a huge storm as much as they need a wet storm (or a couple of them). At least as far as setting up a good base for skiing anyway. A foot of snow that won't blow away is better than 3 feet of snow that only drifts into ravines. From what I've read, the models are very inconsistent with the amount of moisture coming through. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. There's another disturbance headed this way on Monday that might be a nice followup too.

A big wet one is best, to cover all the rock up there, but as far a snow goes, I still see 14 inches as next to nothing for the Peak at 10,800'. If the past is any indicator, the Monday disturbance will be a dud, they always were while I was there.

Jim_H wrote:If the past is any indicator, Monday disturbance will be a dud

What....Monday's are not good for storms?

I remember how excited I used to get about snow. I got over it... Have I become jaded? No, I'm just cold all the time, and I can't afford the heating bill. According to the forecast, since I have a day off tomorrow, and the weather forecast is sunny, I had better plan a hike. There is supposed to be some "weather" coming in later on in the week.

Monday's are bad for storms. They always peter out in the event they might have canceled school.

I hear you Liz. I actually want rain where I am, but not snow. I like snow up higher, and in places that need it. Also, a good wet winter snow storm means desert rain, and that means it will green up. Now, when will the rain get over here, as the precipitation forecast has it all dying as it enters NM. The Tucson NWS has a winter storm warning for their sky islands, with 10 to 14 inches of snow possible. I hope that translates to half an inch of rain over a lot of the desert with more in the areas of the Catalina Mountains around 4 to 5000', so the slopes green up by March.

I recently saw a photo on SP of the Franklin Mountains (near El Paso, TX) in March? with a lot of blooming poppies in front of them. It was posted in 2007, so it is an old image, but at some time in the past, it did rain enough over here to grow some spring flowers in this most barren of deserts. As I have mentioned before, the differences between the New Mexico Chihuahua desert and the Arizona-California Sonoran desert are striking. There is an intact area of desert near where I live. I walked in it the other day and was looking at the vegetation. Dominated by creosote, every single shrub which was probably 4 to 5 feet high 10 years ago, they had died back to the roots in a drought and there were now at best 1 foot of new growth shoots coming from the ground. This is not a lush area, and it appears to have been drier than usual over the last decade. You really see how relatively lush the 1000 to 2000' Sonoran desert vegetation can be.

Interesting, about your local desert drought.

We do have some snow in the forecast here.

I have a trip to California in the forecast, however, and hope the storm will come in and leave, so that I will have dry roadways for my 600+ mile drive in about 9 days from now. Too far ahead for that forecast right now.

Well, it is exciting to see, with up to 2.2 inches of liquid equivalent for the rim area being forecast. They have up to an inch in the western Gila, but it drops off rapidly.