HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

It was a little warm in the Supes Friday. It doesn't quite seem like fall yet.

@chumley
unless you a Detroit fan

@big_load
I agree was a little warm was out there myself, almost a year from when a rain storm literally dumped an inch of rain on Supers they were wet the rest of winter, was spoiled...any word on rain in near future?...I hear wed. thurs. next week..the Supers need it, lets get those washes flowing again.

Seems as if the sexy weather models I like so much are having a pillow fight and quarreling about what might happen next week. Too early to tell as things could be dry and sunny or maybe the low/trough will dig down this way with a moisture tap. Give it a few days before the picture gets any clearer.

friendofThundergod wrote:almost a year from ...

For me, next week marks a year from Hurricane Sandy. Some things still aren't really fixed, like the telephone and cable TV lines on our street that are tied to the trees with rope because they still haven't replaced all the utility poles. At least they finally replaced the power pole that was leaning out over the road, tied to trees and guard rails with ropes instead of steel cable. That "temporary" repair actually predated Sandy, it was done after Hurricane Irene, so it took two years to fix.

chumley wrote:Seems as if the sexy weather models I like so much are having a pillow fight

Imagine coming home to that every night where the entire conversation revolved around Warm Fronts and Haboobs

Seems that Daylight Savings Time will end this coming Sunday at 200 AM. I will have to get used to the sun going down in the 5 PM hour, instead of after 6. I know you already are, and I did that all the time in Arizona, and I sort of miss not changing as I always felt 745 was late enough for sunset in June, but I got use to DST. Oh well. March isn't too far off.

Very windy here today. Small amount of rain predicted. Should calm down by Wed. or Thurs. We had a very pretty fall, if you like a deciduous-type of fall, (as opposed to a desert fall) and we didn't have too much wind, so the leaves stayed on the trees. Wave them bye bye today!
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The Tucson NWS (posted to Youtube) has a winter forecast that says warmer and drier than normal. Not a lot of explanation, though. Either way, while SE AZ does not speak for all of AZ, it has more to do with southern New Mexico than the Flagstaff NWS does. I was hoping for normal or above, as if I am over here next spring I would like to not have to deal with the dusty conditions we did this past spring. It was almost Kayenta like. Locals said it was way worse than normal, and we figured it was from several years of dry winters and the poor monsoon the year before, so who knows, maybe this past wet monsoon will help. Anyway, a few storms can still affect SE AZ, and hopefully some are moisture packed like last years storms. Maybe a couple will get over here and dump some decent snow over 7,000'. We basically had none last year, and you can tell when you see all the dead pinyon in places outside of town.

It's rained four inches over the past hour. Raindrops, four inches apart, that is. Trying hard to produce more. Maybe overnight it will get around to it.

Well, the pleasant warmish weather might be coming to an end soon. In a few days a low is forecast to sit over Arizona producing sizable precipitation amounts over the eastern parts of the state into western and northern New Mexico, and part of Colorado. Might be a boon and something to get the winter wildflowers going. Not much for California or the Sierra Nevada, but something for Arizona is usually good.

Doesn't appear to be very serious for SE NM, but so few storms ever are. Clouds, wind, cold, maybe some moisture, but not really.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Large accumulations predicted for Arizona. If that ends up being true, it would actually be rather nice. Well, except for ruining the weekend. It might help out with snow on the Peaks and the Snowbowl opening. Kind of annoying that the precipitation line appears to follow I-25 northward through NM.

From what I've read so far it is trending warm, with snow levels at about 8000-feet during the bulk of the precip.

Isn't that what you always "hoped" for here ... a good warm storm to get a sticky base on the peaks? (As opposed to dry powder that just blows off).

Well, I would be lying if I didn't own up to preferring a warm and sticky base.....wait a minute. A warm base dense base is better, and the totals are probably reflective of that. The totals for the lower desert are impressive for November, so warm and moist is probably the case. Perhaps a good soaking for the low deserts, and yet a low enough snow line to have snow in the sky islands?

It is just fairly frustrating that it is coming so early, or what feels like early. I had plans for the weekend, and I have to postpone them. I might hike Saturday's planned hike earlier, say tomorrow, to take advantage of the last warm sunny day. I hope I have off on a few more 65- 70 degree days this year.

Jim_H wrote:I had plans for the weekend, and I have to postpone them.

It's rain. A rare and special treat in these parts. What's the problem?

chumley wrote:

Jim_H wrote:I had plans for the weekend, and I have to postpone them.

It's rain. A rare and special treat in these parts. What's the problem?

Not quite. Other than having plenty of experience with rain and not wanting to hike in it, I was also planning on going up to near 10,000' where it would be colder, and way windier. I am not living at 1,500' where a warm mild rain is a "treat". We are in two very different deserts. You'll be in 65 degrees this winter, it will be 45 over here. There is more than one reason hardly anyone lives in southern New Mexico compared to southern and central Arizona.

@chumley
exactly I planned on staying in this weekend, until I heard potential rain in Supes...now heading out Sat...no surprise, I always seem to find an excuse..

If I go out in the rain I melt. Anyway, it is supposed to be a little rainy here in SoCal as well. Maybe we will see snow on Palomar, which looms in the view from the place where I'm staying--it's only about half an hour from here. My car is broken, though. I have to get it fixed first!

I just don't like cold and wet, or cold wet rain, or cold, or wet, independent of each other.... and so on. I long for spring warm up and all that. Maybe just move back to AZ so the lulls between storms are milder than over here.

I have been thinking of doing Saturday's Planned hike tomorrow, though I have concerns and may postpone for some time. I am considering another hike for the weekend, like Alamo Canyon up to the West Side Road. Something that probably isn't super fun or important to hike on a nicer and rarer day this time of year. I lost hope for a return to Sunspot from Dog Canyon this year, but might go back to Joplin Point. Probably not good to do that on a cold windy day.

Jim_H wrote:I just don't like cold

I move to have Jim stripped of his "summit" kokopelli moniker