HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Sure is nice in SoCal this weekend. Shorts and sandals during the day, a bit chilly at night.

We had an unusually dirty air mass over us today in the basin, or a very strong inversion layer with no top below the western ranges. All day it was hazy and the air was brown. I think it was from pollution brought in from Colorado and Texas, as there was a NE wind, but it was surprising how much haze there was for this area. I don't recall any days like this last year, and with the holiday it seems unlikely to be from a local source (military). No fires nearby that I am aware, either. It was so hazy, the front range was hazed out this morning. Hopefully it lifts in a few days, or less.

Gorgeous winter weather. I can't think of better weather to end the year and get in one more hike to add to my yearly tally. Or, to start the next year.

I wonder though, with yet another dry winter, will we pay for it in some fashion other than the preferred wet storm cycle later on in the winter? Seems like the flower show likely won't be that great, as December was rather dry, and January probably will be as well.

Jim_H wrote:Gorgeous winter weather. I can't think of better weather to end the year and get in one more hike to add to my yearly tally. Or, to start the next year.

I wonder though, with yet another dry winter, will we pay for it in some fashion other than the preferred wet storm cycle later on in the winter? Seems like the flower show likely won't be that great, as December was rather dry, and January probably will be as well.

Yes, early in the fall we were hoping for the flower show, since we had the fall rain that is necessary to get the ball rolling. But, that rain machine is broken, and I'm not sure when it's going to start up again.

Well, as you know, I'm obsessed with Sierra Nevada snow, or the current lack there of. An article I read said this was as bad as the 1990-91 winter, which I guess was a severely dry winter until a "March miracle" basically brought the snowpack up to normal or near normal. If that doesn't happen, it will probably be a historically dry year in many locations in California. Some counties already are at that point.

Arizona and New Mexico, and Colorado, have done relatively well, but Arizona dried a bit. In fact, I was surprised to see the most precip in the last 2 weeks fell up above me in the Sacs. Will it rain like last year, in Arizona? I hope so. Maybe a nice Pineapple express will develop and dump snow and rain on California for a week or so,oscillating from the south to the north, and back. Trouble is, for the Sierra, the lows keep coming in from the great basin, or the upper Sea of Cortez area, and don't do much to the Goldilocks state.

So far the rains in Arizona have been spaced right for a flower show. We need to get another event in the first two weeks of January and maybe one or two in February, and if one of them is pretty big and widespread (>.75 inch), we should be in good shape. Desert is looking happy right now.

That is good news. The last one ended up being a pretty nice one, but not as wet as forecast around SE AZ, even if a lot wetter around Phoenix. It seemed like many of the totals were not enough to promote flower around Tucson.

The rainlog totals around Tucson from 11/1 to 12/31 are pretty impressive, lots of 2 and 3/4 inch and over. I wish there was one on Mount Lemmon, or nearby in Summerhaven, to see what fell up there. One point over near the Flatiron of the Superstitions reports over 5 inches, in the last 2 months. That's eastern like! I expect poppies as high and an Elephant's eye!

It's scary-dry here in Northern California. There have been a few brush fires in the SF Bay Area region this December, and that's almost unheard of. The hills should have turned at least somewhat green by now, but are instead the brownish-gold that signifies drought.

Jim Lyding wrote:It's scary-dry here in Northern California. There have been a few brush fires in the SF Bay Area region this December, and that's almost unheard of. The hills should have turned at least somewhat green by now, but are instead the brownish-gold that signifies drought.

I think it is not as dry here. This weather is great for kayaking, hiking and biking, needless to say! However, if we don't get some rain we are going to be in the same boat. I used to always use that term, "scary-dry" when I lived in Arizona White Mtns., especially the years we had the Rodeo, Kinishba and Wallow Fires. However, it happened in May and June. In fact, I thought I made up that term! ;)

What do the mountains look like? If you get to them. I know they are a few hours away, but I wonder how deep the snow happens to be. With 5 percent of the April 1 average, and 10% of normal, or whatever the number are now, how do things look if you go out?

A few weeks ago San Gorgonio (San Bernardino NF) and San Antonio (Mount Baldy) (Angeles NF) both had a little snow on top, probably mostly gone by now. San Jacinto has not had any snowcap since I got here, and I can see it often from various points in North County, since it is the closest big peak (By big, I mean 10K+) San Diego County has no big peaks like those, everything is under 7,000. And there is no snow on any of them. We do need rain. The guys in the paddle club were saying today that we are now about an inch below normal.

Slegal posted an interesting photoset around Mammoth Mountain, on the east side of the Sierra, and the Yosemite webcams provide a view of how dry it is there.
http://www.nps.gov/yose/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm

Las Angeles, Fresno, Yosemite, and a few other CA locations had their driest year on record in 2013. It's a bit more than, "an inch", below normal.

US Drought Monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Figure the higher the drought level, especially in dense fuel areas (such as California), the more likely severe wildfires ...

I have that as a bookmark and view it from time to time. One interesting comparison with Arizona, is the absence of drought in a large part of the water supplying parts of the state. Much of that is a result of the very wet monsoon in 2013, but there was a good amount of rain and snow in the last 2 months of the year, as well.

We got a couple more inches of snow and Breck got 13 overnight. Bummed 'cause I was supposed to be riding today and Tuesday.

I got in one good day off XC-skiing yesterday in bitter cold. Now it's warm and rainy, expected to go into the deep freeze again tomorrow night (after the snow is wrecked).

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1038

An interesting discussion on the current drought vs the one in the 1970s that has traditionally been the low year. Accorrding to the Snow pack graph,
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowap ... art.action

this winter is drier than the driest year on record for their graphs.

Also, http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

it appears the next storm will go around the blocking high, come down from the NW and the great basin, and NM might get more than most of California.

I don't know much about California, but here in Arizona, while it has been dry for a few weeks now, we did have some good moisture early in the season. I've seen the SF peaks with zero snow in January before.

One thing about Arizona's winters is that we can be dangerously dry one week, and two weeks (and two good storms) later be happily above normal.

But the pattern will have to shift and drop a couple of good disturbances down our way in the next month or so for us to catch up.

I don't think California and the Sierra are nearly as "resilient" as AZ with regards to one or two storms making such a substantial swing.

If the high in the eastern Pacific broke down, it could improve. Arizona has the summer monsoon, so it has more resiliency there. February and March, and most of January are still coming, so California could improve. It is impressive with how bad things are, though.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=hnx

The Hanford, CA, NWS, has a story today about the previous driest periods for Fresno between July 1 and early January. The prior years a were all followed by wet late Winters and early Springs. My belief, is that is probably what will happen. That would correspond with an unrelated youtube video the Grand Junction NWS office had up some time ago, in which that stated that neural years such as this, the western slope of Colorado tends to have a wet November and December followed by a break with a dry January, and then a wet February and March. So far, Colorado has had a wet first half of the winter, and it did get dry in late December. So, in all likelihood, the high will breakdown, lows will start to come in, and some level of precipitation will start to flow. Might be 2/3 or 3/4 of normal, but that is better than 1/10th.