HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

I drove up the eastern side of the Sierras along highway 395 and into Northern California around the end of 2013/early 2014 and was surprised at how dry everything was. I carried chains and was prepared for snow and ice but it was easy driving. The Sierras near Mt Whitney and Mammoth definitely had some snow, but my camps a couple miles off the highway (a few thousand feet lower in elevation) were very dry. I set up my tent under a clear night sky with lows in the mid-20s and had zero condensation - normally everything would be frosty in the morning, but there must be almost no moisture in the air. My windshield didn't even ice up.

I'm currently in Oregon for a few months and missing the AZ winter hiking. Is there any snow on the rim above Payson? Near Mt Baldy?

HAZ no longer has a regular presence in the White Mountains (me). I ran away to California. However, from what I see online and from my friends, although there is likely some icy snow up high on Baldy, there probably is nothing down along 273/Slade Cabin area for xc skiing or snowshoeing. I am pretty sure it is dry dry dry.

For being "neutral", as in not a El Nino or a La Nina, this is a very bizarrely dry period, I think. Of Course, I wouldn't probably love a wet period of week after week of strong storms, lots of snow and rain, but the opposite just can't be good. I like that even flow, sort of thing.

The media has already mentioned water restrictions, and it could get pretty bad here in Cali. The lack of precipitation is so dramatic that it wouldn't surprise me if it kept going through the end of our winter. That's a pretty scary thing to think about, and even scarier to think it's possible. The current weather pattern could be a fairly normal thing w/ respect to the previous climate pattern, or it could be a harbinger of a drier future due to climate change. Or it could be the latter exacerbating the former. No one knows. It wouldn't shock anyone if we had a crazy wet winter in '14-'15. Whatever it is, it's no bueno right now.
I remember growing up in Arizona and knowing people from back east who hated the rain, and I never understood why. They would grumble about "weather only a duck could love" when it was raining on one of the 12 days/year it rained in Phoenix.
To say people here are concerned is an understatement. The powers-that-be have allegedly done a good job banking groundwater, but California produces a disproportionate share of our nation's fruits and vegetable production, and has 38 million people who could be kissing their lawns goodbye within 6 months because that will be the first thing to go. We were seemingly drowning in rain in 2010-11 (and the Sierras were getting buried in snow), and now we'd give anything for just one good storm. Destruction leads to a very rough road But it also breeds creation. Or so we hope.

@Jim Lyding
Pretty scary stuff.

Yeah, I keep thinking, this weather is so deceptively pleasant. I've been leaving my bedroom window open 24/7. I'm sitting here with the window open, in fact, bare feet, t-shirt, at almost 10 p.m., in Valley Center, which usually is a tad bit chilly at night in January, say usually in the 40's at night. During the days, nice and balmy, 70's and 80's, with one day that spiked to 90, but just so pleasant. And I know it is not good, but I'm enjoying it anyway.

@Jim Lyding: I remember the last (?) big crisis in California in the 70s. My grandparents lived in Santa Rosa, and I remember them only letting us flush the toilet if we pooped ...

I'm actually surprised more hasn't been done in California for this dry period, in terms of restrictions. Maybe, it just amounts to no water deliveries in the Summer, so there is little to do? If there were to be no storms of any real consequence by the end of the winter season, and a flat line for the snow totals, the current amounts would be unprecedented. Well, well below the record dry 1976-1977 winter. My guess, though, is that even if February is dry, and the February to April or May period is dry, there will be at least a good storm or two in there somewhere. Maybe 50% of normal will be reached? Maybe only 40% or 30%? I would think, that a system like that which affected Arizona in March of 2006, would happen, with 1 massive dump with a large impressive total falling over a few days. Maybe it would be 1 or 2, or perhaps a Pineapple Express? I don't know. In other words, March might yet be relatively wet. Why do I think this? Wishful thinking!

With the Phoenix open coming next weekend it would be the typical time for a good winter storm. But so far it doesn't appear that any changes to the pattern are looming and instead sunny with temps pushing into the 80s should accompany the greatest show on grass.

If the open can't bring the rains, I'm not sure what will. We may be doomed!

I suscribe to the CalFire Youtube channel. Analysis of severe conditions: https://www.youtube.com/embed/XCa8nkOEcOY

kingsnake wrote:I suscribe to the CalFire Youtube channel. Analysis of severe conditions: https://www.youtube.com/embed/XCa8nkOEcOY

We've probably discussed this to death, but it sure is worrisome. Sheesh, Folsom reservoir is super low in that film!

Well, I am suddenly starting to think that if the weather pattern holds to after the middle of February, it could very well prove to be a plus for me, personally. That is, I might be able to go to Palm Springs, and get a monkey off my back by finally going up over 10,000' in a day. C2C? Maybe, maybe, we'll see. I saw a trip report from the 11th, and it's dry the entire way to the top. Basically, there are only small patches of snow, which is all compressed down.

It was +16 over here for the low last night, which appears to have been colder than in Flagstaff. I know I talk often of the need for rain and snow, but when cold makes it's return, I am ready for Spring. Unlike the last 2 times the outside air dipped into the teens, my poorly insulated house's kitchen cold water pipes didn't freeze, so that was good.

The first indications of a possible pattern shift with a cutoff low have hit the computer models upside the head. And it might happen in time for the Phx Open after all. Stay tuned.

In other news, I actually felt some kind of moisture falling from the sky on my bike this morning. I think I've known east coast humidity to be wetter, but it was definitely rain.

@chumley
I saw 30 percent chance for feb 2 I think

@friendofThundergod
As I've stated before, 8-days out, there is a 100% chance that the 30% chance has 0% chance of being an accurate forecast. But it's still nice to dream. ;)

I haven't seen any forecasts that would impact this open you speak of, but I have seen some that say northern California might have some weak storms next week. Almost all north of Lake Tahoe.

Multiple weather offices are discussing the pattern changing by the first week in February. Even the NYC office mentions the shifting of the entire continental pattern

ONCE AGAIN GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN...CURRENTLY FEATURING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND

Those folks in New York are paying close attention because apparently some people are going to try and do some sportsing outside next Sunday or something.

PATTERN SHIFT IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET AND A WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. DETAILS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE TREND IS CLEARLY TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE BY SATURDAY WITH A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES FURTHER INTO THE NORTH CNTRL PACIFIC BASIN...ALLOWING SOME MEASURE OF DEEPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THUS...THERE IS SOME GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION VERSUS THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY JANUARY.

What the shift means for any specific potential weather events as soon as next weekend, it appears too early to determine. But it seems a pretty good bet that the pattern is about to change, and that can only be a good thing for the west right now.

chumley wrote:Those folks in New York are paying close attention because apparently some people are going to try and do some sportsing outside next Sunday or something.

It's not just the Superbowl. Unlike the midwest, houses here aren't designed for the kind of cold we've been having. Water pipes are freezing not only in the walls, but also in the ground where they come off the main. We're having a rash of house fires caused by space heaters because many heating systems can't push out enough BTUs to maintain temps even in the mid-60s.

Our last extended cold snap with sub-zero temperatures was 1994. December and January this winter will beat that duration of cold by a factor of three, and probably doubles the total number of below zero nights we've had since I came here in '87. On the other hand, it was 70F here just before the December snap, and it got into the 50s for a few days between the cold. A couple hundred miles of jet stream displacement makes a world of difference.

Maybe we'll enough snow to ski on next weekend. It won't take much more, and minor flurries are on the way.

@chumley
We are pushing the limits of persistence almost to an inevitable breaking point. Something has to give. A major sports thingy coming up in the New York area? Who needs the Weather Channel when I can just watch the game to see what's going on (three cheers for outdoor games ;)). I'll be watching intently. Yep, New York needs nice weather and we need a storm, so let's have it happen!