HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

The Sacramento NWS Office says the Global Forecast System indicates upwards of 6 to 7 inches of liquid for the Sierra by Monday, but that is all north of Yosemite, mostly Tahoe up to the Cascades. Water is water!, and this is good news for lots of different things. Maybe the grass will green up in Jim Lyding's photosets? Either way, still next to nothing down south. I wonder if my little trip is worth it, what with storms finally coming in, and even some precip for San Jacinto. Actually, if it isn't nice and warm, I could pass on Palm Springs/ S.J.

Yup, a Pineapple Express. Just look at those sexy forecast models, fresh from Hawaii!!!!

Over 10 inches forecast in the Sierra. From nothing, to that. Impressive! Still, almost totally dry down south.

Red Flag fire warning all alonge the Sierras regardless. Need successive waves of snow -- and rain, at lower levels. Still, it's a start ...

We need about 10 more of these storms. Looks like snow is falling all the way south to Sequoia NP.

Impressive totals expected, but unless a few more of these come through, the snow curve will look a lot like the 76-77 one. My thought, is that this will probably be the 1 big storm for the year.

Lake Superior on verge of rare ice over

http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_ ... e-ice-over

kingsnake wrote:Lake Superior on verge of rare ice over

http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_ ... e-ice-over

Wow!
I've been wearing sandals all day!

We're having one of those winters where the roads get progressively narrower as the snow piles up. Driving gets more dangerous because the snow berms force cars pull to blindly forward into the road before they can see whether it's safe to turn. There's more snow coming tomorrow, for the third time this week.

Nice inversion in the springs. 43 and sunny at the house. 21 and about 1/4 mile visibility in the Springs.

Inside Lake Superior's dazzling ice caves that only open up when it freezes over

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... caves.html

Look at the photos, then be honest: Cold or not, you want to be there.

kingsnake wrote:Inside Lake Superior's dazzling ice caves that only open up when it freezes over

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... caves.html

Look at the photos, then be honest: Cold or not, you want to be there.

Umm...noooo....but I can certainly enjoy the lovely photos you so kindly posted, while I sit here in Yuma, barefooted and happy.

Man, I miss the low desert.

Jim_H wrote:Man, I miss the low desert.

Yeah, the low life is where it's at!

With this very early warm up of 80 in late February and at 4500', I wonder what the next 3 months will bring. I love it, even if working, but this dry and warm winter can't be helped by these temps. California has picked up some rain and snow, but all well north of the mountains of southern California. I wonder how things will look this summer?

We're having the same weather pattern that persisted in the winter of 1994, which had record snowfall. We had a foot and a half of snow Thursday (with half an inch of ice in the middle) and another four inches today. More snow coming Monday night and Tuesday. Roofs are starting to collapse. We're close to top-ten territory already, and there are two months of snow season left.

I don't know how Arizona or New Mexico are doing, but California, and especially the southern half of California, are probably in record drought territory. I don't think there has been much of any snow on some mountains in and south of the transverse ranges.

Jim_H wrote:I don't know how Arizona or New Mexico are doing, but California, and especially the southern half of California, are probably in record drought territory. I don't think there has been much of any snow on some mountains in and south of the transverse ranges.

It's the other side of the same coin. Our excess cold and snow stems from that same ongoing displacement of the jet stream that robs them of moisture.

I for one, am really enjoying this warm dry, sunny, March-like 70 to 80 degree weather. I just hope the wind doesn't pick up. Over here, with the mild January, it seems like we are going to have an early spring.

I wonder when the season will turn to winter, or if it ever will? I have not seen long range models, or read much more than: continued dry and warm (which I actually really like except for negative affects of drought on the plants) for the rest of the winter and spring, and a possible El Nino developing next winter. Next January is too far off to really matter, but if an El Nino develops early and a summer of 2009 scenario repeats, that could be very bad for the SW. 2009 was great as far as the summer went, except for the lack of summer rain and the drought. On top of the dry year so far, that would be bad, though I am speculating.
Then there are the mountains and landscape of California south of 37 degrees north, which have basically seen no precipitation at all this winter. I see trip reports of people hiking San Jacinto in shorts and with no snow at all, and I think that unless a major storm dumps many feet of snow up there, that mountain is either going to burn or suffer pretty bad from a 3rd year of severe drought. It's pretty much the same all over in the southern half of the state.

So, I like this warm dry weather, but it can't be good.

Trinity Lake Labor Day Weekend 2013: http://hikearizona.com/photo=359061

I'm thinking about heading back to Trinity Lake over the Memorial Day weekend, and I'm curious as to how low the lake will be. Trinity along with Shasta Lake is the beginning of the northern half of California's Central Valley's "plumbing." I bet the lake will be dry from shore to shore in many spots this Memorial Day. The farmers have already taken it in the shorts, and nothing's going to change that until at least the late fall of this year.
At least the good people of California are starting to talk about the consequences of this disastrous winter rather than praying for rain. Unless a series of very unlikely major storms just hammer the state from March until May we get to look forward to:
*Agriculture is going to take it in the shorts for at least a year.
*A few salmon and steelhead runs may pass into the hereafter, particularly south of Monterey Bay. Most rivers and streams with steelhead and salmon have been closed to fishing, and saltwater fishing will assuredly suffer a hit with so little fresh water flow.
*A horrendous fire season. Southern California will probably get hammered due to the buildup of fuel, historically low amount of precipitation, and fact that Southern California will probably receive zero inches of precipitation during the months of June, July, August and September and probably May and October as well. I wouldn't be surprised if half of the high elevation conifers still left in SoCal get scorched this year. I worry about the same thing happening to the sky islands in Arizona if it hasn't already happened.
*Hopefully an examination of how California uses water. I'll save that for another thread and another day.

Ah, I always enjoy reading posts from our senior analyst in California.

After I posted above, I read the California Weather Blog on Weather West and it was calling for a return to the off shore High, and dry warm conditions for the rest of the month, beyond that is uncertain. I just don't think the March 1 to April 30 period is going to bring storm after storm, but I have hopes that 1 good storm may come down the coast. I think if 1 good storm happens, that will be it for the winter.

It is hard to see this sort of thing in California, and not start thinking about what I read in Cadillac Desert. In addition to virtually no precipitation at all this wet season in southern California, including the mountains outside of LA, places like San Jacinto, and the interior deserts, the eastern slopes of the Sierra, where LA gets a good portion of it's water, have been dry. It's a good thing that so far, Colorado has been pretty wet, as I expect the Colorado River Aqueduct will be supplying most of the southern cities this year, whereas normally a lot still comes from the Sierra, except to San Diego, which always gets most of it's water from the All American Canal, or that is how I understand it.

This probably is a normal cycle, or it appears to be. Next year and the year after will be interesting to watch. We know, both from archeological and other sources, that the west and California have been as dry and drier, over the last 1000 years. Is this a low point, or the start of a long term mega drought from a normal cycle or some new global warming caused event? Who knows? What is curious, is what would happen if this became the new normal? Well, I enjoy a good speculation.

Also, as the southern cities rely more on highly tapped Colorado River water, and other places like Las Vegas struggle to build lower intakes to tap falling Lake Mead Levels (despite the large release from Lake Powell in November), I can't help but think of a few things. 1) Why is Vegas where it is? Logically, Las Vegas should be where Laughlin, NV sits, right on the river. Boulder City makes sense, as it was built to build the dame, but Vegas never should have grown the way it did, in the setting it did.

2) After visiting the relatively water rich area near the mouth of the Colorado, other than peoples hostility towards the region, and the high summer temps and humidity, why is there no large city at all in the lower river area? It would make more sense for that area to be a setting for a large city, like LA, Vegas, or something else. Why we pump water hundred of miles, makes little sense.

3) You should see the Rio Grande. Really, try to find it and see it. Below the pretty small dams and very pathetic reservoirs on the "river" north of Hatch, the river is nothing more than a dry bed. I never see water in the river channel through Las Cruces. There is a plan in the works to bring water from the Gila, near Silver City, to the Rio Grange near Las Cruces, mostly to supply farmers. I disagree with it, and it is not popular with voters. Living in the closed Tularosa Basin, it won't directly affect me, and I would likely be gone before it did, but the plan seems foolish. The Rio is grossly over tapped; it is dry well in to the continent, not near it's mouth like the Colorado. Sort of like the Colorado being dry just below lake Powell. It is a far fetched idea, but it is sort of where the Colorado is heading, or perhaps it already is though the infrastructure creates and artificially wet river?