HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

An El Nino wouldn't really affect weather until December to January, anyway, according to what I read. We could use a strong one, but the long range forecasts have backed off on the that and are calling for a more modest one, at best. The current call from the, "California Weather Blog", is for an average to dry winter, with watch out(!) if there is a dry year for 2015. I guess CA Ag. is OK this year with wells, and modest cut backs, and of course Colorado River water, but another year, or another year(2016), could be disastrous.

I suspect, that at this point, a normalish year would be a good thing, since the last 3 years have been so dry, and each seemed drier than the next. I hope for a wet year, or a winter at least as good as 2011 (which was mediocre at best, really) for the northern half of the state so I can hike Humphrey in snow. Good deep snow, worthy of a visit. So far, the last 3 winters have been pathetic on the Peaks, and the last truly awesome year was 2010. 2011 was actually just so-so on the Peaks, except above 11,000' or so. In 2011, there was a huge late December glaze event that coated the rocks and most everything in frozen fog several feet thick on the windward side. Snow was actually lacking. Now, for CA, and Jim Lyding, 2011 was a banner year, with massive snows for the same event, and training snow and rain form a line roughly north of or around LA, to Vegas, St George, UT, and somewhere in the middle half of Colorado. At least it was a fun winter on the Peaks, and that December storm dumped tons of snow on Mount Whitney, which was perfect for my early February hike on that. It got wet that spring, too and lasted into June, if I recall correctly. Never the less, that probably won't happen.

If you read the weather blog, the blocking ridge is the big factor, and if that persists this winter and never breaks down to allow Gulf of Alaska lows to move down the west coast and impact the west, it will be dry. Hopefully, this December to March offers some decent snow, and next year it won't be so dry. Then, a nice weak monsoon to temper the last 2 years heavy wet ones.

chumley wrote:Give me a Pineapple Express. On the rocks. With salt.

I watched that movie, don't remember any drinking...

I notice the dew point struggling to drop to comfortable levels, both in Tucson where is it in the 60s and VERY eastern, and in Flagstaff, where it continues to rise back above 40 degrees. However, after this weekend's forecast low, a front and high should start to set up over AZ by early next week, and the NWS in Flag has this to say:

AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WINDS DECREASE...THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET OR SO.

Should be dry enough to get cold, which would be good. Hopefully, that dry air is state wide!

Models are finally coming into some agreement. It looks like Saturday will be showery, with the potential for severe weather. It's rare they mention possible tornados in a forecast here. From the Flagstaff NWS:

A WINDY AND STORMY DAY WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED....SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

We may end up having perfect early fall weather for next weekend, which would be great. Hopefully, Thursday to at least Monday is clear, calm, sunny, mild, and just perfect for conditions at 11,969', 11,500', 12,633', and everything in between, from Sedona to Freidlein Prairie, with 30s for lows on the lower slopes of the Peaks, to 50s on the peak tops.

In the meantime, this front might produce some interesting weather up in northern AZ, and has heightened the threat of storms down here later today. With potential for flash flooding in canyons, and the storm threat, I called my plans for today, and will just start in October. It is actually nice outside right now, even with the moisture. It smells sort of pleasant, and is cool. I would rather we get a hot afternoon with severe late afternoon to evening storms, to really let me know the summer was over. Maybe a tornado to take out something in town?

Meanwhile, UGH!! Rain. I had to wear long pants to work. I am still in Tevas, though. No socks (yet).

Late afternoon Friday the thunderstorm in Payson had hail and just under a half inch of rain. The thunderstorm that brought rain starting at 2:30 am and by 7 am I had 1.4 " of rain.

azbackpackr wrote: I had to wear long pants to work.

You know life is good when this is the worst news of the day.

3/4" in 15 minutes here in East Mesa, but with it coming completely horizontal for a good 3-4 minutes I'd have to believe we had over and inch. Our backyard is under 2" of water right now...

Sunny and windy in Tucson, just dark clouds over the higher terrain, but very windy. I expect no rain, but can live with that.

The dew point in Las Vegas, NV is at 28 degrees. That is up from 20 degrees a few hours ago, but down from 64 degrees yesterday. Its coming, the dry air is coming.

promise?

About 1.5" of rain in Apache Junction from the storm.

whereveriroam wrote:About 1.5" of rain in Apache Junction from the storm.

My neighbor will disagree with you but he uses his wheel borrow as his rain gauge!

.8 of an inch in Payson overnight. Impressive totals for the East Valley area and the rain gauges in North Central Maricopa County. Stream flow gauges indicate Indian Bend flowing.

I was in Payson on Thursday, and got into a bit of rain and hail in the afternoon as we were headed back down to the valley. Temps went from 68 degrees to 95 within 20 minutes of driving. that was just insane. Then I was up in Williams and Flagstaff on Friday and Saturday, and was watching the weather and hearing about tornado warning near Flagstaff and around Kingman. Not very often that happens here in AZ. I was up there for a wedding, which of course was outside. Haha, it was fun. The rain and lightning started right when the ceremony started and ended about 10 minutes after it was over.

Came out of work today and the air was DRY!!! Finally! and it was awesome! Dew point is 38 degrees and it is nice and cool.


Then, the Flagstaff NWS says this:

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

Looks like awesome weather for the weekend!

I guess I am alone in my love of this dry, cool in the morning and warm in the afternoon, sunny, clear weather. Headed to Flag, and the forecast looks to be perfect!

BTW, anyone notice Colorado got snow last night?

@Jim_H
Did you notice Arizona got snow on Sunday night?
http://hikearizona.com/photo=446780

The La Platas had a nice blanket of powder on Sunday.