HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

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Driest January (0.00') on record for San Francisco in 165 years of records, and a few other CA cities. The dry period goes back well into December, too. Arizona may have received rain, but virtually no snow from extra tropical systems, however California received nothing for most of the state. Even with the forecast for some rain to extreme northern California later this week, the warm nature of the system might be good short term, but contribute next to nothing for the low snowpack.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/media/fgz/FXC/f ... Update.jpg

Up in norAZ, lower elevation locations have slightly more snow than normal thanks to the NYE storm, but that doesn't mean a lot as a few inches of dry powder aren't as hydrologically important as a foot or two of dense wet snow, and the higher locations are in a bit of a snow drought, thanks to the warm, wet, rain events this winter. So far.

It's hot.

chumley wrote:It's hot.

plz: Wah wah wah!

I really hope this doesn't last...it's way too early....

Outdoor Lover wrote:I really hope this doesn't last...it's way too early....

But isn't it kind of typical to have a warm spell in February? Probably soon enough it'll get cold again, and (grrrrr) windy.

Looks like this warm spell might break by the middle of next week followed by some rain potential. That would be nice.

chumley wrote:Looks like this warm spell might break by the middle of next week followed by some rain potential. That would be nice.

Yeah as long as it doesn't rain on my kayak trip over the long weekend. I will have to look into that. Thanks for the heads-up.

Hot? It isn't remotely close to being over 90. This is nice! I love this! This is WHY I want to live in Arizona. I won't tell people to leave, I hate that about Flagstaff people when you complain about cold in May, or wind all year but summer, but Arizona is perfect when in the low 80s in late winter. Rain, yeah, I guess we need our punishment, but I love this. Spotted some Mexican Gold Poppies on the highway, so bring on the Spring! I hope this does last, and we are done with winter. I love the WARM desert, not the cold windy ones. This makes me want to head to the dunes by the river, or a palm canyon in California! Birds will start calling insects will emerge, it will be Spring!'

The NWS in Tucson had talked about a low forming out in the Pacific SW of San Diego and tracking either over us or NW Mexico, but still close enough to deliver some moisture, over the Sunday to Tuesday time frame, but the forecast track now has that well to the south in olde Mexico. The QPF for Mexico's northern mountains is pretty good, over 1 inch in many areas. We will remain dry, and unless another inside slider or one of those increasingly common but strange extra-tropical systems happens, it will once again be a while before we get any rain or snow. Weather west calls for at least the next 10 days to be dry, but that is for California and we have gotten it pretty frequently this winter when they have not. Makes me wonder if spring really is here. Even if it is still winter, I consider March 1 to basically be the start of Spring in the desert, in a "normal" year. My expectation is that after that point, any serious precipitation is probably unlikely until monsoon season. Baring a freak low, of course.

Either way, probably going to be warm and dry for a while. What a pity!

Four below with howling winds here. I have to leave a faucet trickling tonight, because its pipes come up through an outside wall.

big_load wrote:Four below with howling winds here. I have to leave a faucet trickling tonight, because its pipes come up through an outside wall.

Had a few days like that in Idaho. Nothing like hunting down where the ice is and working over the pipes with a hair dryer.

SpiderLegs wrote:

big_load wrote:Four below with howling winds here. I have to leave a faucet trickling tonight, because its pipes come up through an outside wall.

Had a few days like that in Idaho. Nothing like hunting down where the ice is and working over the pipes with a hair dryer.

Our other problem in this cold and wind is that the heating system can't keep up. We're down to 63 with everything that's enabled running continuously. I like it that way, but it bothers Mrs. big_load. It's time to fire up the reserve capacity.

big_load wrote: It's time to fire up the reserve capacity.

Does this mean wood stove time or a quick trip to Arizona.... :whistle:

Wow. :worthy: I am so grateful when I hear these stories to NOT be living in Eagar or even Flagstaff this winter, let alone Colorado or New Jersey! :thanx: to the Powers that Be, however it happened, that this day I paddled down a river in 80 degree weather, and sat outside having beers with my neighbors this evening wearing shorts and sandals. I just hope my luck will hold for the rest of my life. I really do hate the cold.

In 1999 I deliberately moved from Tucson to the White Mountains, at age 47, never before having seen a snowstorm. I was thinking: "Oh, yeah, I would LOVE to experience a four-season climate!"

Well, I'm now experienced. Broken pipes, stuck cars, icy windshields, $500 heating bills, piles of quilts on the bed, etc. The only thing I took away from the experience that I really enjoyed was learning to cross country ski. And I can do without that.

SuperstitionGuy wrote:quick trip to Arizona....

That's an enormous temptation. The closest I'll get this week is Denver, which will still be a big improvement. I can't really complain, though. We're not getting hit as hard as Boston. They're getting exactly the kind of winter we had in '94.

@big_loadWatch what you wish for. I'm not sure about Denver, but they are predicting snowmageddon. 18-24" over the next two days in our town. It was 60 in the Springs and 15 minutes later snow flurries with high winds.

@MtnBart01
Not sure how 2 feet of snow qualifies as snowmageddon anywhere in Colorado. Even in the eastern plains or some of the drier valley spots this kind of storm isn't that rare! : rein :

@chumley
I don't know. I am personally not concerned. I was repeating the media/ weather forecaster's spin. Maybe it's the combination of high winds, low temps, and predicted snowfall over several days. Also, I was responding to Alex who is evidently going to be in Denver. "The closest I'll get this week is Denver, which will still be a big improvement."
Despite our temps in the 50 and 60's this week he'll be leaving cold and snowy for cold and snowy. I was happy to find last year when we hit -18 temps that I had no pipe issues even w/out dripping water in the faucets. So far it's been a dud although the winds were high enough that a camper was flipped on the highway this afternoon.

MtnBart01 wrote:Watch what you wish for. I'm not sure about Denver, but they are predicting snowmageddon. 18-24" over the next two days in our town. It was 60 in the Springs and 15 minutes later snow flurries with high winds.

I got back home in time to get snowed on here instead of Denver. It was in the mid-60s Thursday, and there was enough light at the end of the day to drive up Boulder Canyon to Nederland.

Current system has done much better than the models predicted. Snowbowl got 16" overnight, and it should snow all day up there. NWS has upped forecast for Flagstaff to 6-10" and issued a Winter Storm Warning. Looks like the eastern mountains and southern half of the state will miss this storm though.

But interesting developments appear to be in store for the weekend... stay tuned!