HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Arbitrary seasonal delineations are fine, but it doesn't always work that way. I am referring specifically to recurving tropical storms that can phase in with westerly troughs and give us big rain/flood events. That potential can go almost to November. Freak shows? Ha, there's mirrors for that.

rwstorm wrote:Arbitrary seasonal delineations are fine, but it doesn't always work that way. I am referring specifically to recurving tropical storms that can phase in with westerly troughs and give us big rain/flood events. That potential can go almost to November. Freak shows? Ha, there's mirrors for that.

You would know about that, wouldn't you :roll:, and then there is that tropical weather you refer to, too. Either way, while there may be potential for it, it is the worst weather in Arizona and the world. You really ought to head to Florida, you'd be right at home there, for several reasons.

Florida? Nope...I wouldn't recommend that place to my worst enemies (or most of them anyway).

Summer was dry in NJ, and the trees are starting to shut down early. I'm not sure what effect the el nino will have on us. The conventional outlook is that winter will be milder and less snowy. However, it tends to be wetter to the south under el nino, and an arm of that wet zone can bend up along the coast. More moisture and less cold can add up to a whole bunch of snow.

I remember the winter and Spring of 1997 to 1998, as extremely wet and rainy, in those areas.

I'm ready for more rain.

Seems like rainpocalypse is falling apart a little bit. Forecasts for the SE California and SW Arizona have dropped from 80%+ to 20%.

The initial moisture plume is heading south and east.

Still hoping for that 1-2" valley total overnight tonight. We shall see though. Might end up being much more localized with good totals in some spots, and not much in others.

At least we can look forward to it being sunny and 107 again on Wednesday. ;)

Model revisions have shifted the rain more central and east, and this pleases me.

We've had so much rain in Tucson recently (it's been raining for 2 hours now this morning) that I found moss growing on the north side of some saguaros yesterday...

Steady rain all morning, ponding in my yard and minimal run off in the washes, but it's a slow soaker so a lot is being absorbed fortunately. Watering bucket has about 3/4 inch in it so far.

Ever since moving back to Arizona, I miss living in the desert.

The Tucson area is getting soaked! As of the noon hour gauges in the Catalinas and Rincons are reporting over 1.5", Redington Pass over 2.0" and Florida Canyon in the Santa Ritas almost 2.5"...and it's still coming down hard. And it's not just the mountains as I've got a little over 1.5" of precip in the rain gauge here at the house in Sahuarita.

Pima County rain gauges: http://alert.rfcd.pima...

.8 at my house so far (as of 12:40) and raining heavily.

@SkyIslandHiker
This is actually pretty welcome, as the summer there was a little dry, and the models and storm have moved the precip towards you, and away from the waste lands west of the Valley, and the I-17 to SR 89 corridor.

TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN IS OVER.

That's from the PHX office. That's a quick about-face! Reminds me of a New York area winter storm that was supposed to drop 3-feet of snow, but suddenly "went out to sea" (big_load knows what I'm talking about!)

It's nice to see good rainfall totals out east and in some of the south eastern ranges. But for the forecast to be off by 200 miles just 12-hours out is pretty pathetic. Apparently we better start stuffing more cash money in some g-strings because the models just aren't performing like they should!

It might be sunny and 107 on Wednesday after all

@chumley
Your turn is probably tomorrow. ;) Meanwhile, I'm glad the tropical depression moved over my area for that nice 1.20 inch rain.

Well, isn't this just funny, everyone is happy and satisfied.


:FG: :SB: :tt: :bdh:

@chumley. Yes, it was like Passover without the lamb's blood.

So the Phoenix forecast dropped from 100% chance of rain down to 70% this afternoon and now 50%.

At what point do they just admit defeat and change it to something realistic (let's say 10%?) based on looking away from the computer screen and looking out the window?

Tropical Depression 16-E produced some very impressive 24-hour rainfall totals in the mountains surrounding Tucson:

Mt. Lemmon (Catalinas) - 5.12"
Redington Pass - 4.80"
Manning Camp (Rincons) - 3.27"
Florida Canyon (Santa Ritas) - 3.23"

Since June 1, the gauge on Mt. Lemmon has recorded a whopping 31.73":
http://alert.rfcd.pima...