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The endless chatter of weather.

I really hope it doesn't rain in flagstaff and any towns located at 6k-7k. Looks to me like its gonna rain alot in those areas. But the peaks and white mountains are calling for 20-40in. Oh yeh. Lots of powder

chumley wrote: I don't think its really that bad.

A lot of people live on steep slopes in the coastal mountains, and in their canyons, recently devastated by fire in many areas. This is unstable ground, both in the underlying geology, and also on the surface, due to the fires. I think it will be a mess in those areas. Also, the infrastructure below those mountains, e.g., in the valleys where millions of people live, is not equipped to handle the runoff from 30 inches of rain coming down the canyons in huge flash floods. I think there would be a lot of low-lying areas that would be flooded. I think bridges would wash out all over the place. I think canyon roads and freeways would be undermined and become unstable. The soil can hold only so much water before it starts to give way. Parts of the GLAMA will always get mudslides and flooding from only 2 to 4 inches of rain.

All that being said, I don't always believe the NWS. However, I wouldn't discount the forecast if I lived on a stilted house on the side of a hill in the San Gabriel Mtns!

charkellyaz18 wrote:I really hope it doesn't rain in flagstaff and any towns located at 6k-7k. Looks to me like its gonna rain alot in those areas. But the peaks and white mountains are calling for 20-40in. Oh yeh. Lots of powder

Skis are in front hallway, gas tank is full! I'm ready to roll, bring it on!

azbackpackr wrote:

charkellyaz18 wrote:I really hope it doesn't rain in flagstaff and any towns located at 6k-7k. Looks to me like its gonna rain alot in those areas. But the peaks and white mountains are calling for 20-40in. Oh yeh. Lots of powder

Skis are in front hallway, gas tank is full! I'm ready to roll, bring it on!

Me to azbackpackr.

Actually just looked at the weather and they changed it a lot. Now it is only supposed to rain a little in flagstaff monday and tuesday but from tuesday night to saturday just snow.

I have to drive to Kingman Monday afternoon and will be driving back home later Tuesday. I'm going to have to do this for the next 12 weeks or so, but why did this have to happen during the first trip? Good thing I got new tires.

You could ski there...

LOoks like just the storm on MOnday is capable of a foot in flagstaff and a foot and a half at snowbowl. I cant imagine how much flag will get all week.

Oh, it appears that even if the predictions aren't as good as they are saying, it will still probably be a wet one.

Trouble with that map is that the color for 1 inch is exactly the same as the color for .01 inches, and the color for 10 inches is exactly the same. Same for 0.1/11.0 and 0.25 and 12.00, etc. etc. So how are you supposed to tell which is which?

I'll take a 60-70 inch week on the mountain!

Weather.com forecasted snowfall would be measured in "yards" in Arizona's mountains and in "several yards" in the Sierra.

I am still skeptical, though.

azbackpackr wrote:I am still skeptical, though.

I'm always skeptical. Though I'm also hopeful.
For now its looking like the biggest storm on Thursday/Friday will be rain almost everywhere ... with the snow level near 8000 feet. That would rapidly melt most snow that falls earlier in the week and cause unbelievable flooding conditions. Almost just like a New England winter!

chumley wrote:

azbackpackr wrote:I am still skeptical, though.

I'm always skeptical. Though I'm also hopeful.
For now its looking like the biggest storm on Thursday/Friday will be rain almost everywhere ... with the snow level near 8000 feet. That would rapidly melt most snow that falls earlier in the week and cause unbelievable flooding conditions. Almost just like a New England winter!

The snow/ rain level I'm seeing is 7200 feet. If we get a lot of snow over the week, and it does rain, it probably won't melt it all or most of it in Flagstaff. We had a cold rain 2 years ago that compacted the snow but never got rid of it. It really ended up just putting a lot of water in the pack and the soil, and it turned to snow and gave us a lot of fresh snow as it pulled away. Even if the snow line is 8K', the Mountain would get a lot of snow, and that is what I am really concerned about. Still, its too early to know what will happen. The only thing for sure is that over the next week there will be snow, rain, clouds, wind, and a series of storms that make us look feel like the PNW more than AZ, but we need it, so I can live with it. I'd rather a ton of rain and snow now than in late May and June.

I'm reading the snow level is going to be in and around 7200ft. I imagine if it snows more than a 1 foot all week the rain won't really melt it. On the other hand snowbowl is going to get pounded with a lot of snow. They needed the snow too the snowpack was getting low. I just can't wait to see how much we get

jhodlof wrote:'d rather a ton of rain and snow now than in late May and June.

Can I be picky and ask for both? I love big rain in May and June!

Wildflowers this year!

Here comes the rain here in N Phx

Ok...this is the first time I've ever seen a weather forecast predicting snow 4 days in a row with a 100% chance.

We've had a very light dusting of corn snow so far.

I think January rains don't do much for wildflowers. You have to get slammed in October and November for good spring wildflowers. But Buffel Grass loves it, alas.

I am at a loss as to whether to hike in this weather, or go to the gym. (Ugh, I hate the gym.)