HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

@friendofThundergod
Forecasts aren't exact and the computer models are wrong all the time. The problem with this storm is that meteorologists had data that indicated significantly lower snowfall totals for the coastal cities but intentionally decided not to revise the forecast publicly.

Manipulating or withholding available data isn't exactly something that makes scientists look good.

https://www.nps.gov/customcf/webcam/dsp ... 9B40DBB9A7

https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/photosmu ... ebcams.htm



I realize I may be opening a smarty pants can of worms here, but I find these webcams in Yosemite interesting. The Turtleback Dome air quality cam is especially interesting to view, with the number of dead, and dying, uh....things, being noteworthy. It will be interesting to see these things change over time, and I wonder if there will be more or less things in the future. Also, last winter was actually about normal, despite predictions that made it seem less so, and this year is well above, so it will be interesting to see what happens this summer, and perhaps next year, to these things.


Lastly, models show significant rain and snow for the region of the webcam (the Sierra) and much of CA next week, and southern CA may get some, as we may as well, but nothing like we had a month ago.

Is MtnBart01 excited about all the low elevation rain and high elevation snow affecting the Front Range area, and higher interior ranges of Colorado? He likes to mention that Colorado receives a lot of it's snow in Spring, which makes sense as moist Gulf of Mexico air streams northward over the continent and is able to be pulled in to passing low pressure systems over the Rockies and high plains.

NJ on the verge of a true oddity, something that's only happened twice before in 122 years of recordkeeping: March will be colder than February by up to 1.5F on average. The previous occurrences were in 1960 and 1984.

big_load wrote:NJ on the verge of a true oddity, something that's only happened twice before in 122 years of recordkeeping: March will be colder than February by up to 1.5F on average. The previous occurrences were in 1960 and 1984.

...only because February was the warmest February in the history of New Jersey, 9.5 degrees above the 20th century average. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-seri ... eyear=2000

@flagscott

Also because March is a little colder than average, in part because of the snow albedo effect. It's unusual to have that much fresh snow cover for most of the month. Recent rains have mostly washed it away, so I expect temps to pop back up soon.

the history of New Jersey

God bless the poor soul who's job it is to study this subject.

Plus, April 1 is Saturday. Did you know that? I bet you didn't know that. Now you know, thanks to me!

Is AZ expected be warmer than usual toward the end of April?

@big_load
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Help yourself.
One week.
Two weeks.
One month.
Three months.

@chumley
OK, I'm absolutely guaranteed to have nice weather in AZ/UT.

chumley wrote:@big_load
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Help yourself.
One week.
Two weeks.
One month.
Three months.

Beyond two weeks, you may as well consult one of those Magic 8 Balls. That will be about as accurate as the long-long-term forecasts.

I have left the Oregon rain and have arrived in the North Carolina rain. My report is: the rain in North Carolina is wetter than the rain in Oregon, and warmer, too. Downright tropical, it is.

In Arizona news, my friend in Golden Valley reported 75 mph gusts at her place last night, with 50 mph sustained. Bullhead City, near there, reported a 72 mph gust about 5:15 p.m. yesterday on NWS.

azbackpackr wrote:Bullhead City, near there, reported a 72 mph gust about 5:15 p.m. yesterday on NWS.

I hope the dam doesn't blow away.

Models are now showing an impressive late season (and if Arizona is any indication, a potentially over forecast) atmospheric river headed towards Northern California/ the northern 2/3rds of CA. Nothing for us, or southern CA, really. Anyway, I see weather west twitter shares of graphs depicting the current water year closing in on the previous wettest year, and if models pan out, it will be the new wettest water year on record for some parts of the state of California.

However, the snowpack for these same areas is not nearly as great as it was during the previous wettest water year, 82-83, I think. Much of what fell this year was rain, from warm atmospheric rivers, and the snowpack can also melt off faster than in past decades from warmer temperatures, causing storage and future availability issues. One fix: increase groundwater recharge and storage, which really is no small task.

At any rate, the Eastern Sierra Snowpack is so great, a rapid melt off, which is a possibility with increased temperatures, may overwhelm the capacity of the Los Angeles Aqueduct, with a large amount of runoff actually going where it should, into the Owens River and the Playa known as the Owens Lake. Problem is, LA spent a ton of money on dust mitigation projects that might be destroyed by water, ironically.

As spring progresses and warms, the number of obviously dead trees in Yosemite NP's Turtleback Dome webcam will become increasingly obvious. It will be interesting to see if new pines of the same species replace these dying ones, or more likely these areas convert to chaparral, especially as the trend moves towards infrequent higher intensity fires. In southern California, the last real precipitation event was the one that caused flooding in San Diego, in late February, with a warm dry March already behind us, it seems that the last drought struck area of the state will probably remain dry until next winter.

How does this affect Arizona, or hiking here? It doesn't. But, you might want to avoid plans for the JMT in June and July, and maybe even August, unless the snow is melted off by then.

Tuolumne Meadows campground in Yosemite NP isn't scheduled to open until August 1st. The California snow pack is huge this year. I'm expecting an epic year for mosquitoes.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

This moves well beyond the mindless designation, but is interesting reading.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/california ... 1491434129

Reservoirs and rivers are overflowing as storms have pounded California this winter, and after years of drought that should be good news. The problem is that misguided environmentalism is wasting the water windfall and failing to store it for a non-rainy day.

chumley wrote:This moves well beyond the mindless designation, but is interesting reading.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/california ... 1491434129

Reservoirs and rivers are overflowing as storms have pounded California this winter, and after years of drought that should be good news. The problem is that misguided environmentalism is wasting the water windfall and failing to store it for a non-rainy day.

I can't read this because I'm not a subscriber. But a relative regularly sends me op-eds from the WSJ on science issues, and they are, almost without fail, tendentious, misguided, ignorant, and misleading. I'm guessing this one is no different.

You know how I can tell that this particular one is political crap disguised as "good management"? Because they blame environmentalists. Anyone who knows anything about California's water issues knows that the system is immensely complicated. There are a ton of stakeholders with different interests. The current system does not favor environmentalists in almost any way--sucking a large percentage of the runoff from the Sierra for giant corporate farms in the Central Valley, leaving salmon, other fish, and recreational river users high and dry. So, if someone says that they have a simple solution or that the system is too good to the environment right now, they're a liar.

Ah, found the article on a blog: http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2017/04/0 ... ut-to-sea/

Yeah, this is typical anti-environmental BS. The article fails to mention that farmers in the Central Valley are raking in money hand over fist, growing high-value crops like almonds. Even in drought years, farmers do well: http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/01/29/c ... a-farmers/ The article also doesn't mention that the Endangered Species Act and treaties with Native American tribes require that water be left in the rivers for salmon and other fish (which, in good years, produces a sizable income for a lot of commercial fishers, too).

And let's not forget that in the long run, California is going to continue to get dryer and dryer. If all of these new reservoirs are built, they're not likely to stay full for long, which means that taxpayers will be out billions with little to show. And building dams is a big con to start with. Taxpayers put up the money, and corporate farmers get all the benefits while paying little in return. Read Cadillac Desert if you want to learn the full and infuriating history of this welfare system.

I didn't say I agree with it. Or disagree. I said I thought it was interesting reading. Still do.