HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

The latest models are ticking upward in rain and snow for the Sierra, with higher elevations possibly in the 4-feet range of new snow. Not much focus on it until this storm is through, but there's another forecast next week that is also looking to be measured in feet. Not bad for April!

@chumley
More for AZ please.... wave your wand or do the dance. Not quite sure what you do (nor do I want to know)

First, @JimmyLyding I was considering a Sierra Trip this year, and while beautiful and a place I have not been back to since February of 2011, the extreme snowpack and my lack of mosquito fondness had me decide against that before I started to think seriously about it. If nothing else, if much of the higher elevation areas will not open to August, that means it may be more crowded come that time. Besides, I want to see Great Basin NP, and Nevada, if I do go anywhere.



http://blog.ucsusa.org/juliet-christian ... l-it-stick

Though that article/ blog incorrectly calls the Owens Valley a town, the point of that piece is that snow will transition to rain, and there will likely be less. Even in the good to excellent years like this year, a large percentage of the precipitation will no longer be snow as it once was, but rain. The April 1 164% of average snowpack is impressive this year, but the total precipitation was higher, and that was why dam spillways were failing in January.

I found that article to be nothing new, as well. Interesting? Eh. I used to see that sort of argument about the delta smelt trotted out anytime a discussion on water came up on Summit Post's garbage forum. According to some, even in the record driest year on record (2015) there would have never been a drought at all, were it not for regulations about water and the smelt. Trouble is, salt water would creep back in to the delta and might ruin farmland, too, were it not for releases. You know, that historical delta farmland that is much more valuable as it is fed by gravity canals and was some of the states earliest irrigated lands.

The real issue when it comes to CA, as Scott alluded, is over use, over allocation, and an expectation that large corporate farms will receive subsidized water from tax payers. Surface water has been over allocated and over used for decades, so drought exacerbate the problem. In normal and good years, groundwater makes up the difference, and as that articles discusses, investing in groundwater recharge and storage projects makes far more sense than new reservoirs and projects built on the old model of snowpack. Even if global warming really were a Chinese conspiracy, historical photographs of the effects of groundwater overdraft and land subsidence are freely available on the internet and elsewhere (print). It would makes sense to mitigate this problem, as well, since changes in the ground can render those expensive, tax payer subsidized pork barrel water projects useless when they break up, slope the wrong direction, or otherwise are destroyed by elevation changes.


As far as Arizona goes, we never discuss any ideas about Saudi Farms sucking up ground water and growing wheat and hay for dairy production back in Saudi Arabia. It's grown here in Arizona, using Arizona ground and probably CAP or other surface water, and all perfectly legal. Still, many may think, "America First", except that really what is the difference between this and a local farmer doing all of that, but selling it to a middle man that ships to the mid-east? Besides, we've been mining their oil for 75 years.


Then again, how is the Saudis growing wheat and hay in the SWUSA for their domestic consumption, any different from what US and EU based companies do in Brazil with soy? Well, at least According to, "Stuffed and Starved", Slave labor isn't involved.

That strayed quite a bit off path from weather, but I pretty much agree with you.
The fish indeed get screwed in the grand scheme of things here, but I never seem to have a problem finding fresh kiwis at my local neighborhood supermarket. The point about the delta backflowing up the Sacramento is a good one. Such an eventuality could lop several billion dollars off of California's agricultural product. The agricultural region around the Delta may require even more uncontained water flow in the future if the Chinese Myth continues, and sea levels continue to rise.
I can already envision a kiwi-free future.

JimmyLyding wrote:I can already envision a kiwi-free future.

And, with the new tighter immigration policies, a Kiwi free future is already in the works! I hate those New Zealanders!


Nice day outside, and the Sierra Snowpack remains well intact, bolstered by the last storm series, in fact.

Today, May 2nd is the average date for the first day that PHX reaches 100.* It won't happen for another day or two this year (though it did reach 99 on 4/23).

*Averages are determined from observed data 1981-2010

Please, everyone knows the data is in Celsius, and 37.777 degree C is meaningless. You never observed anything. A network of highly skilled lab monkeys did it for you.

@Jim_H
The data are in any unit one wants them to be in. What does it matter, it's easy to convert back and forth? I sort of doubt the data collectors were in a lab either, but what do I know.

It's nice out.

chumley wrote:It's nice out.

Mrs. big_load pointed out the Phoenix temperature last night, as she does almost daily. I was surprised. It was a bit warmer when I passed through last week. It's cold and dreary in my corner of NJ, raining on and off for days on end, with unseasonable lows close to freezing.

After two consecutive triple digit temperature days in Tucson on Thursday (100) and Friday (104) last week, tomorrow's high temp is forecast to be in the upper 60's with 1-4" of snow in the mountains above 7,000 feet!

Well, after the two 100 degree days, with what, 107 or 108 on Friday, I drove to Palm Springs and was greeted by cool temps in 70s, high winds, and then rain yesterday at the park in P.S. It was bizarre. There was a surprising amount of rain for parts of southern California.

so much for the 108 gnat snuff out

It's madness. The snow is sticking here at GCNP.

I'm reminded of 2008 and 2009. Wondering which way it could go, or not.

I was just looking at the current drought monitor.

In the past year, the northern two thirds of Arizona has improved one or two levels, while the southern third of the state has remained largely unchanged.

East-central Arizona is still "Abnormally Dry" (Yellow) and the southern third is in "Moderate Drought" (Tan) but the northern third and west-central AZ is at or above normal.

Let's hope for a wet summer monsoon across the east-central mountains and sky islands down south.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?AZ

Last Year:

Now:

This has fallen off the recent activity page and it has been one month since the last post. I am wearing pants and a sweatshirt mid day in mid June when the sun is out and it is not raining???

Yeah, weird cold front. Only mid 90s here today. 112 by the weekend.

I like normality, so let's talk about the weather.

Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for Friday-Tuesday for most of central and southern Arizona below 7000 feet, with a special notice for the higher elevations of northern Arizona.

The deserts are forecast to reach 118 by Monday and Tuesday, with temps in the 80s and 90s in the mountains.

This is the hottest weather so far this year. Please take it into account before planning outdoor activities this weekend.

Saying 102-104 for Payson this weekend..