HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

"Generalizable"? "The terms and phrases, which were carefully selected based on the results of previous social science research."
Really?! Just think .....these guys and gals have Masters' and Doctorate degrees, and they come up with 'generalizable"? Sounds like a word my youngins would have invented when they were 10-12.

hikeaz wrote:"Generalizable"? "The terms and phrases, which were carefully selected based on the results of previous social science research."
Really?! Just think .....these guys and gals have Masters' and Doctorate degrees, and they come up with 'generalizable"? Sounds like a word my youngins would have invented when they were 10-12.

So, are you saying that you disagree with research that can potentially save lives by encouraging people to pay attention to weather warnings? There's a monster hurricane heading towards Florida, and some people will fail to heed evacuation warnings because they think they know better than the "gub'mint." You're okay with that?

BTW, there's a specific reason they used "generalizability"--it's a term from psychology. https://psychologydictionary.org/generalizability/

If people that ignore a current/potential Florida type warning change their mind on a phrase change then lookout for Speed Limit to be reworded too.

Speaking of Irma ... and the previous discussion on GOES-16 ... check out this incredible satellite photo sequence of the eyewall.

Scary! I hope against all reason that there's minimal further damage.

Interesting post on the NWS Phoenix Facebook page this morning:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSPhoenix/pho ... =3&theater
This reminds me of a similar event I read about in a book entitled "Texas Weather," that I bought while working at Midland in the mid 1970's. It took place on June 15, 1960 near Lake Whitney northwest of Waco and occurred shortly after midnight. It is described in the following post I found:
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/thread-26035.html
The incident is also referenced in the Wikipedia entry on this phenomena, in the extreme cases section:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst
Pretty amazing I'd say!!

@rwstorm

I read that too.
I got the downburst winds at my house. When it happened, I glanced at the current radar which had nothing to show but some light shower activity in the northeast valley. I didn't go outside or check my thermometer though. I'm guessing that the temperature went up at my place around that time too, but I didn't look. I'm only about 5 miles from the airport.

Glad it wasn't one of those extreme bursts that runs up to 130-140 degrees. Cat 2, 4 and 5 hurricanes, 8.1 earthquake, the PNW on fire, crazy geomagnetic storm, etc. Might make people start to wonder! (Can we get a volcano eruption please!?)

@chumley
It's the end of the world as we know it (cue R.E.M.)

There will always be people who don't want to do what they are warned or told to do. That's just the nature of people, right , wrong or indifferent.
From a USA today article recent;

"But the possibility of Category 5 Hurricane Irma hitting their Key Largo home changed their mind, so they adhered to a mandatory evacuation order for the Keys. They put up shutters on their two-story concrete house and left around 5 a.m. Thursday. They left behind a daughter who didn't want to evacuate and four cats."

There must be some scientific study that directly correlates cat ownership to mental illness. Probably includes an exponential increase with the number of cats too...
What ever happened to the old "stir the pot" emoticon? :stp:





Disclaimer for cat lovers everywhere: this comment is not intended to be taken seriously.

http://www.mercurynews...

My last thread degradation, more cat stuff. Gotta love Key West, I visited there several times many many years ago and it is a great quirky place. I didn't link an article over saving the "gypsy chickens" which roam free on the island, pics of those chickens wrapped up like live burritos. Favorite T-shirt there " Save the Bales" complete with pic of Ganja bales floating in the water off the island. You can be sure there will be a few people staying there to ride the storm out.

Leave no tern unstoned

Is this the appropriate time for this?

Back in Arizona weather, the NWS reports Phoenix hit 110 yesterday, the 4th latest occurrence. The 7 day forecast shows 107 for me in the central area, and then after today, only high 90s for the remaining period. Is the 100+ period of summer over? I don't know how I feel about that, as I still could stand a few days off in the lower 100s, with time in the pool.

Either way, I think I am headed to beat Humphrey to death today, so I won't be here for the 107.

If anyone is considering Humphrey or some other higher terrain hike this weekend, this looks like a promising one for it. Much cooler temps and dry air for a taste of fall after a cold front passing today. Moisture may come back towards the middle of next week, but it looks like the first days of fall are coming in. Zion NP has a forecast high of 78 for Friday! Not that Zion is in Arizona.

The temperature in the valley this morning was borderline pleasant!
Grand Canyon airport bottomed out at 32 this morning ... exactly on the average day for that to first happen.

But I'm most excited about the numerous photos of snow covered mountains this morning from Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming! I've seen some forecasts of up to 20" over the highest peaks. That's a bomber September start to winter!

my fellow Montanans are over the wall with excitement about the snow precip... not a common emotion for THIS time of year but based on this: http://www.krtv.com/story/36254254/map- ... in-montana
Hopefully they're getting some moisture north of the border at Waterton as they had a major fire blow up a couple days ago - 80,000 acres in one day.

Big cool down coming! High 80s for Friday and Saturday in the Valley, low 40s with a low chance of snow over 11500' on the Peaks, and a hard freeze chance over 6500'. Super windy for later in the week up high, too.

When it's super windy at the Kachina Peaks, would you expect similar at the Mogollon Rim? Payson's forecast is not especially windy but I'm not sure what to expect up at FR300 and north from there.

@amy1300
I don't know what your source is for a windy Kachina Peaks, but it's supposed to be very windy in the next few days. The edge of the rim is usually quite windy (much more than Payson) but not as bad as the upper elevations of the peaks. Probably more on par with some of the open plains and plateaus of northern Arizona.