HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

It's like God reads the forum or something!

The streak is over. It rained in Flagstaff today!

chumley wrote:The streak is over. It rained in Flagstaff today!

In rained in Deer Valley too.

And it DIDN'T snow on the Peaks!

A little dusting at our house, 12” at Breck! 23 degrees!

Arizona Snowbowl opened yesterday! It's all man made snow, but that was why they built their system.

It's surprising that they could make enough snow to ski on. It was in the 50s when we stopped in Flagstaff for dinner last night. It didn't seem like it got below freezing at all last week.

One of the strongest cold fronts of the year is forecast for late Monday, with some outlier models suggesting Tuesday's high could be in the 60s in PHX. Officially the forecast calls for low to mid 70s, which is still a tick above normal for this time of year. But the cold front appears to usher in an overall pattern shift, which I would personally welcome right about now!

Yeah, these near 90 highs are a bit much, but I'd rather some high 70s over low 70s, or 60s. That seems to be what happens. I'm sort of upset I am working today to Sunday. I mean, more than normal, because the weather is nice and I want to be out doing stuff in these middle 80s, warm or not.

Still is it winter, so this is expected. I would not normally say this, but I would like it if we got a decent rain event, perhaps with significant snow over 6500'. Especially for our watershed in eastern AZ.

I realize it is fall to most, and that meteorological winter starts next week, but for me, with the sun being as low as it has been for weeks now, and the short days, I consider it to be winter. This is despite the traditional view of solar seasons and winter beginning with the Solstice, which is now less than 1 month away.

It is a week out, and lots can change, but the models are saying a closed low with a long fetch of moisture will form off the coast of southern California late next week, and it may move slowly over southern California/ northern Mexico, and then Arizona, during next weekend or Sunday. Some moisture would be nice! Maybe it will be snow up above 6,000 feet and favor eastern Arizona more than the Peaks, if it trends more towards Mexico.

...and if the models fail us, it will most certainly still rain over north central Phoenix Saturday evening because I have a patio party planned for that time

@t_d_singletree
And I just washed my car after returning from the 1st Water Trail Head.

Sounds like my Backpack Trip will be Fun again too.... At least this Time around, I'll have a Real Tent instead of just a Bivy....

t_d_singletree wrote:if the models fail us

I'm looking forward to the pattern shift, but I'm not counting on a whole lot of rain. It seems the forecast is pushing any real moisture into next week already, and a week is a long time for a reliable forecast.

In my experience, the models almost always over-predict storms like this coming out of long dry patterns.

@chumley
It's pretty funny actually...We'll see how this Forecast holds up...3 Years ago, I solo Backpacked Aravaipa for 3 Days...The Forecast when I left the House was 20% Chance with about 1/10 Inch Forecast... It was Updated to 60% Chance by the Time I hit the Wilderness... Starting in late Afternoon that first Day, it ended up Raining almost 3 Inches for the next 12 Hours...

And now... I am going back. Entering the Wilderness on Monday... Repeat from 3 Years ago??? It was definitely Epic last Time and this Time around, at least I have a Tent instead of a Bivy... I still have mixed Feelings about how I'd like the Weather to go though....

Well, according to Daniel Swain of the California Weather Blog, models suggest high pressure ridging for the first 10 days of December, for the west coast. So, if we get anything from this low, it looks like a return to status quo. Hopefully, we get something substantial.

We had a forecast of probable rain here in the Bay Area for next weekend, but that's no longer the case. I hope the RRR (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge...of high pressure) doesn't return for an extended return engagement.

I woke up this morning and looked at the local forecast here in Needless, expecting it to be similar to what I had seen last night, but it is totally different. I have planned a club event tomorrow, a river kayak trip, and I was expecting to cancel it. Now I think I can hold off on that decision, since the forecast for strong winds has been lifted. Light breezes are expected. If they are going to be out of the north, so much the better.

The models have trended much drier for the weekend and any rain that might have come in is now looking lighter than forecast, and the focus has moved to the east, more in NM, than AZ, too. Southern California is totally dry during the 168 hour QPF.

There's virga on the radar today!

This might be the most exciting meteorological event we have seen over the past three months.

I just saw this animation posted by NASA and it's absolutely fascinating.

Ignore all the crap about hurricanes and Saharan dust and pay attention to the smoke from fires in the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. ( @Tibber all the Glacier NP fires show up). The animation runs for three months, August to October.

This is captured by the new GOES-16 satellite previously discussed in this thread.


https://www.youtube.com/embed/h1eRp0EGOmE
I recommend viewing it full screen at 1080p. The quality is that good!