HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Ya know how ya know you live in the desert?

When you can barely remember the last time it rained, and yet, the last month has been "near normal" for precipitation.

The NWS reports that January was just below average for precipitation statewide, coming in as just the 43rd driest Arizona January in 124 years of record keeping.

It's an improvement since the three-month rolling average Oct-Dec was 4th driest, and Nov-Jan was 5th driest.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-prec ... aps-select

I'm more impressed by Flagstaff having their direst September to January on record, with just 1/4 of the normal precipitation, most of which was actually in January. I wonder, how much will they, and the other watershed areas of the state receive before Monsoon season? Will we be like 2015, where there was a good amount of spring rain and snow, or 2012, where it was dry?

But now models indicate some type of extra tropical or other low may come in over southern California and affect Arizona in about a week. Low totals, not a big, cold, Gulf of Alaska low or even a warm wet pineapple express, but something. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1431007963

I wonder if it will pan out, or be a bust?

Judging by the 120 hour and 168 hour QPF models, the storm appears to be trending wetter for most of Arizona, and New Mexico. Drier for southern California, though they still get something, but northern Mexico is in our boat. Some areas with good lift, like the Sierra Ancha, Mazatzal, Baldy/ White Mts, and Mogollon Mts in NM, have colors indicating over 1.5 inches of liquid, if this pans out as forecast. Haven't seen that in a very long time. Sure would be nice to see this storm go as forecast.

Had half an hour or so of light rain in parts of the Chiricahuas today.

Yesterday was the wettest February 12th in Flagstaff's record book. 0.83" of liquid precipitation fell!

It's been raining pretty much non-stop since 3pm yesterday at Roper Lake - we just passed the 1 inch mark!

Tucson NWS wrote in their forecast discussion about widespread 3/4 to 1 inch plus totals in the valleys of SE AZ, and 2 to 4 inches of liquid, assumed to be mostly rain judging by the Mt Lemmon webcams, in the mountains. I don't know where the snow line was, but maybe the Pinalenos have new snow on them, since they are well over 10,000'. This was a warmer system!

@Jim_H
Looks to be be mostly liquid on the Pinalenos too, judging by the MGIO webcams and weather station. Better than nothing, though!

Final storm update: Storm and month total now at 1.64...year so far 1.76.

Up to 8 or 9 inches of rain at highest reaches of Catalina and Rincon Mountains from this 3 day storm has been reported.

The models apparently spent the weekend boozing in Scottsdale!

Yesterday morning the forecast called for 6-10" of snow along the eastern Mogollon Rim with local amounts up to 12"
By 8pm last night the forecast increased to 9-13" with local amounts up to 21"
At midnight the forecast was revised to about half that: 4-8" with local amounts to 13"

At 10pm last night the forecast still called for 5-8" of snow overnight along the rim. Less than 1" actually fell. In the immediate 6-hour window.

That's an incredibly inaccurate model forecast!

@rwstorm
During the storm I was watching the USGS real time water data pages for Rillito Creek, Sabino Creek, etc. They spiked up a bit, but there wasn't the huge surge I would have expected. Sabino Creek is now running, but not hugely. I'd have to guess it was more of a soaking rain than a flooding one. I was in Tucson just before the storm, and will be returning there for a couple of days, on Sunday. It will be interesting to see the difference, if there is anything to see.

Powder day thwarted by two hour school delay for a little snow

The Western Supes Rainfall yesterday was absolutely dismal... Although it was nice to not get Drenched during the Day Hiking, it surely didn't help the Desert much and my Vehicle, parked at Canyon Lake was just a spotted up muddy mess.... I think they were predicting 1/4 to 3/4 of an Inch of Rain for this Storm... More like a "Trace" fell and it was spotty....

Our total at Roper for the past seven days was just about exactly 2 inches. Mt. Graham finally got a decent bit of snow, and we are getting runoff into the lake ... lake level is up about 6 inches so far.

http://icons.wunderground.com/webcamram ... urrent.jpg

Todd sent me the link and the Pinalenos look to have some decent snow, at the top to the access road for the observatory.

The cams for Sunrise and Snowbowl look nice, and both report what would normally be nothing special, but is better than nothing. 53 inches and 50 inches of season total for both.

I like the Radio Ridge view on Mount Lemmon.
https://www.webcams.travel/webcam/fullscreen/1469446737

Jim_H wrote: Pinalenos look to have some decent snow, at the top to the access road for the observatory.

I was at the ADOT yard today picking up my work truck, and there was a snowplow which had recently returned from the top - they said it was about 4 inches up there ... and I scooped up a nice big snowball from the plow blade and took it home!

Some pretty nice, but not too impressive precipitation totals from the recent storm moving through Arizona. Better than nothing, like we had in December. Now, Spring?

California is about to be impacted by an old fashioned Gulf of Alaska low, the sort we/ they used to get all the time, back in the old days of 2008 or so. Cold, lots of snow down low, and impressive precipitation totals up and down the state, except in San Diego County where it won't be so impressive. It appears to be moving inland further north than needed to impact San Diego heavily, which means we really won't see anything from it, either. Too bad it didn't materialize in January, and there were not half a dozen more of them. Better late, than never?

The storm completely missed Grand Canyon. No snow at all, while I hear Flagstaff had 6 or more inches, Prescott 4 inches, etc.