HikeArizona.COM

It's officially started. This area just can't seem to catch a break and stupid people are determined to take down what hasn't burned already. Quoted from Tonto NF's FB Page.

"WILDFIRE ALERT: The Whitlow Fire is burning in the Hewitt Station area north of Hwy 60. The fire is reported at approximately 50 acres, burning in grass and brush. 2 engines, 1 crew, and 3 aircraft units are on scene. Additional resources are responding. The fire is currently under investigation. Please avoid the Hewitt Station area to allow firefighters to safely access the incident and work towards containment. Updates will be posted throughout the day. Fire season is here, and everyone needs to be extremely careful with all risks of wildfire ignition. "

Horse Camp Canyon fire -

"The Horse Fire ignited Thursday afternoon along Horse Camp Canyon, which is a north/south tributary of Aravaipa Creek. The fire grew to 228 acres by the time crews arrived to begin suppression efforts.

Helicopters performed water and retardant drops and a team of firefighters rappelled into the area to help fight the fire.

The Thursday evening rain that followed aided in putting the fire out, and by Friday morning the blaze was listed at 50 percent containment and the firefighters who rappelled in were removed by the end of the day.

According to Lowery, resources will monitor the remote fire scar for the next several days to ensure it remains secure."

The Rees Fire is burning in the inner basin of the San Francisco Peaks on the slopes below Rees Peak. It is believed to be a lightning start and is being monitored.

@chumley
Cool

NWS FLG just posted this graphic showing potential fire danger as compared to normal.

I'm not going to pretend to understand how the highest was over 100% or how ~82% is actually 90%. Just go with it because #science.

It's going to be warmer and dryer than normal for at least the next week so this will continue to be a challenging fire situation.

Cooler evenings and calm winds (as opposed to normal spring conditions) are on the good news spectrum.

Anyone notice the big fire burning in the Blue Range now?

@wildwesthikes
It's been burning for a month and a half!

@chumley
The plot goes over 100 ERC, not 100%, that may be why you are confused.

@nonot
Yeah it took me a bit before I figured out that the unlabeled Y axis was ERC and not %.

@chumley
The one abutting the NM border up in the high country? How did I miss that. We're not talking about the Brigham fire right? Can't keep them all straight anymore.

@wildwesthikes
They're not really updating inciweb often, but it started August 18.
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7158/

FS posted yesterday that they had saved Franz Cabin by wrapping it before the fire went through and were now focusing efforts on saving Bear Canyon Lookout.

It's not in the news because it's in the Blue and nobody cares about what happens there.

chumley wrote:I'm not going to pretend to understand how the highest was over 100% or how ~82% is actually 90%. Just go with it because #science.

Based on the description, it looks like the scale on the y-axis is "BTU/sq ft" not %, but the question remains what those two lines labeled with percentage are percent of. I'm not sure how those percentages are possible, short of 0% being less than zero. Maybe it's really percentile?

ShatteredArm wrote: ↑Oct 03 2020 12:51 pm

chumley wrote:I'm not going to pretend to understand how the highest was over 100% or how ~82% is actually 90%. Just go with it because #science.

Based on the description, it looks like the scale on the y-axis is "BTU/sq ft" not %, but the question remains what those two lines labeled with percentage are percent of. I'm not sure how those percentages are possible, short of 0% being less than zero. Maybe it's really percentile?

90% of days were below the percentile line (36 days of a year above the line)
97% of days were below the percentile line (10 days were above)