HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

72 in the Valley now, might be a while until the next 72

Left my house yesterday and it was 69 degrees, at the turnoff to Catalina State Park on Oracle Road it dropped a bit down to 64. The best reason to hike here is that by the time I got to the trailhead parking lot the temperature dropped another 11 degrees and it was a cool 53 degrees at 5:00 AM.

Had rain south of here yesterday, enough to run in the streets, and two evenings of beautiful sunsets and clouds and some notable humidity. Certainly monsoon like but not gaining traction with the weather folks. Fires near Sonoita and one near the Hellsgate north of Nogales. Thunder yesterday evening too.

I predict a late monsoon. The Phoenix National Weather Service discussion this morning is talking about a weak subtropical jet, and we have another late-season trough that will affect the area this coming weekend. The discussion also talks about late precipitation in other late Monsoon years. The monsoon being a seasonal wind shift as it is technically known and not a thunderstorm. It will be interesting to see how this summer rainy season or monsoon season plays out after the very wet winter with the cool wet storms late into spring.

Jim_H wrote: ↑Jun 18 2019 6:53 amI predict a late monsoon

We all know the monsoon began June 15th, right?

The repeated establishment of west-east stationary fronts through PA and NJ has brought us almost uniformly cool, wet weather since the end of winter. One or two days a week, the pattern breaks and drier air blows in from the northwest before the stationary front sets up again. I wonder how this pattern correlates with the medium-term trend in AZ.

chumley wrote:We all know the monsoon began June 15th, right?

At least the TV weathermen/women seem to think so... all I heard last week was "Get ready, monsoon season begins June 15"
It can wait... I'm enjoying hiking in the low humidity.

I think I’ve posted a link to this paper before, but basically, it says that springs with higher snowpack tend to be followed by drier monsoons.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... 2.0.CO%3B2

The snow pack remains high, and the NWS posted their 10 to 14 day outlook.

Below normal (still hot) temperatures the first week of July ( to about the 10th) and below normal precipitation chances. The 7 day QPF has no rain over Arizona, and not all that much for New Mexico, in my opinion, either.

I prognosticate SE Arizona won't really see rain until after July 10, the Whites and eastern AZ around the same. Flagstaff, after July 15, and Phoenix won't get measurable rain (>1/100th of an inch) until after Flagstaff and possibly July 20th. Not just Sky Harbor, but the Valley in general. The Mongoloid Rim will see rain gradually spread west between the 10th and 15th, but dry lightning will be more common. At least 1 member will bitch endlessly about fires, smoke ruining plans, and how tragic everything in is. Someone will complain about the FS, and someone else will complain on Facebook about too many people doing something. People will complain, let's just say that.

It will be a weak start, and the jet stream will dip down through August causing extended breaks with wind and red flag days, similar to 2009. There might be a peak of activity, in late August, but by September things will back off rapidly and it will be gone the second week of the month. Rainfall will be below normal overall.

Hopefully, there will be a lot of really pretty clouds, and storms around despite the general decrease in activity and rainfall.

@Jim_H
Also, a couple of us will bitch about grammar and spelling (thanks for getting lightening right!)

Jim_H wrote: ↑Jun 27 2019 6:23 am Hopefully, there will be a lot of really pretty clouds

This will certainly help make your traditional sky photos a little more interesting.

@chumley
nothing about the "Mongoloid Rim"?

@Jim_H
Nah. I prefer Mongolian myself, but I'm generally a fan of renaming and mispronuncicating things when done intentionally.

.

It huffed and it puffed and squeezed out about 5 drops of rain on my windshield in NW Tucson. But we had monsoonal clouds and wind this afternoon.

Cicadas are singing between Payson and Sunflower.

@Nighthiker
I heard them on Piestewa last evening, too. However, Linda and I heard them during our June 8 Milk Ranch Point Hike, mostly in the morning along the Highline trail. Not really sure there is much more than proximity with the desert species. I seem to recall the ones around Flagstaff singing for a couple of weeks in early June, and then falling silent by the time the seasonal wind shift made itself felt.

Walked Fri morning in light rain for about 5 min; later that afternoon some wind, thunder and distant lightning and dark skies, but cleared and nothing more at my house.

In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF keep very dry conditions over most
of the state well beyond the 7 day forecast period and out to 240
hours, suggesting the monsoon will take quite some time before it
really starts to get going.

-From the PHX NWS

Turns out the clouds over Arizona over the last 2 days were from a system moving to the north, not the seasonal wind shift.

Monsoonal moisture continues to gradually increase across southeast Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into the early evening across the region with the main concern being gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours from Tucson eastward. Modest moisture will be present this week for mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly to the south and east of Tucson -- TWC NWS

The Phoenix and Tucson offices should talk to each other.

@chumley
Why, SE is not the Valley, and you know that. It seems pretty logical to assume that since Tucson and Phoenix do not share overlapping forecast regions, and Tucson speaks about this monsoon moisture being mostly south and east of Tucson, that the two separate forecast offices are forecasting and discussing for separate regions, and so can have separate non-agreeing forecast discussions.

Or did you just want to be snarky and contrary?

Either way, the 168 hour QPF supports the PHX more than the Tucson, but there does appear to be a lot of moisture in Mexico, which technically is south and east of Tucson.