HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Jim's favorite indicator ... is showing widespread .50"-.75" totals over most of central Arizona, with some favored terrain reaching into the 2" range.

If we get more than 1" in the foothills and mountains over the next 7 days, I'll be pretty happy. More than that will be an unexpected bonus. I don't really care how much falls at the airport.

chumley wrote:But I'm optimistic

I generally prefer the 120 hour QPF over the 168 hour QPF, it's a bit more accurate, but whatever. I'll be equally impressed as I will be happy if this odd liquid should fall from the sky. Then again, I am interested in Piestewa Peak and Sky Harbor, too. Odds are, this time of year if those are wet, the watersheds, forests, mesas, plateaus, and summits are also.

chumley wrote: ↑Jan 19 2021 10:11 pm I don't really care how much falls at the airport.

I do, since I only live 10 minutes away and am sick of watering. We've had JUST measurable rain twice in 6 months. The yard needs some nitrogen.

Yuma had well over an inch of rain yesterday! Looks like a good amount extended well east into the the Mohawk Valley, heaviest along the boarder.

Jim_H wrote: ↑Jan 21 2021 8:33 am Yuma had well over an inch of rain yesterday! Looks like a good amount extended well east into the the Mohawk Valley, heaviest along the boarder.

Big rain in Yuma is something to behold. It seems to go everywhere but into the ground.

Wasn't paying attention, but it appears Flagstaff also had some decent precip this week. Between now and the next 5 to 7 days, it looks like real snow will fall up there, and for those so inclined (not me, also my right snowshoe remains broken) there should be plenty of snow for Mogollon Rim Snowshoeing. Hard to say, but even with the forecast of 3 feet of snow at Snowbowl at the typically reported mid-mountain location, back season conditions are still likely to be early season or sub-optimal, especially on rock, which is most of the mountain.

I seem to recall no snow of consequence when I was living in Marana in the winter of 2015, as that was a weird winter which was relatively dry until March and April when a lot of rain and snow fell on the Peaks and the watersheds. Therefore, the light snow that came in the core of winter was insufficient to open Ski the Lemmon. I wonder, with the totals forecast for the summit area of Mt Lemmon, if the ski area here will open, or if snowshoeing would be possible?

So far, not impressed. .001 at the house so far out of all the "chances".

@outdoor_lover @joelhazelton wants me to reiterate that I’m still optimistic.

With the "big one" still on its way today and tonight, optimism continues to be high, but so far totals of both rain and snow have been disappointing based on earlier forecasts. They've met my happiness criteria of 1"+ in most higher elevation locations, so whatever happens today and tomorrow is just a bonus.

But a paltry .12 at my house, and .24 at the airport are both well below earlier forecast models.

Don't know any local totals but this morning was so beautiful with snow low on the mountains and sunlight coming thru the dark clouds. Not hard rain but persistent drizzle and some graupel yesterday. My indicator is a wash near my house which had standing water in it this morning from street run off. So far so good.

Totals around Maricopa and Pima County, and on rainlog are variable and not impressive, but totals up high are. It is a desert for a reason!

At least forested areas and places that have been well below normal for 6 months are now getting something, anything. If you care about California (I do for the summer smoke situation, if nothing else) they are forecast to get some very impressive totals over the next few days. Maybe Mt Lemmon will get enough snow to do a bit of snowshoeing in a few days? Maybe not.

.76 in North Phoenix and it's started again.
ADOT has 260 closed from Star Valley to Heber, 87 is closed Rye to Payson, 89a closed Sedona to Flag.

As of 2pm here in Cave Creek we are experiencing near "white-out" snow flurries. I'll post a photo if it sticks.

@The_Eagle

Add - State Route 87 is closed northbound, north of Payson & - State Route 89 is closed from north of Peeples Valley to just south of Prescott

69 might be next..

@LosDosSloFolks what Black Mo looks like from my yard.

hikeaz wrote: ↑Jan 25 2021 2:36 pm @The_Eagle

Add - State Route 87 is closed northbound, north of Payson & - State Route 89 is closed from north of Peeples Valley to just south of Prescott

69 might be next..

It looks like a good day to stay off the road there.

The fam went and played in the snow this am. Cherry Creek rd near Powell Springs Campground had 6 inches and it was dumping the whole time. The 17 was clear and in good shape plows were out and about. Conditions started to deteriorate on our way home this afternoon though

McDowells from my yard.

@big_load
A RAIN here is bad enough on the roads... with many turning on their wipers (once they remember HOW) only to discover that the blades have dry-rotted away.