HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

There are 113,998 square miles in AZ

Can we steal 2 square miles from a neighboring state or country???

Now that we're actually getting somewhat regular precipitation, where does everyone find reliable forecast info for planning trips during Monsoon season?

Also, I'm I correct in assuming that I should stay out of West Clear Creek if there's even a slight chance of rain in the area or upstream? Or am I being too cautious?

@Watauga
Most of WCC isn't tight narrows, it's usually broad enough you could get to higher ground. If you avoid it any time "there's even a slight chance of rain in the area or upstream" then you've pretty much taken June - August off the calendar. But there are relatively few places to get in/out of the canyon in some sections. so it can be committing. I'd probably avoid it if the thunderstorm forecast is above 50% for consecutive days. NWS site weather.gov is good enough for me and it has a map you can click around on for local area forecast.

Below is an interesting graphic from the NWS in Flag that compares monsoon rainfall in 2020 with YTD 2021 monsoon rainfall

https://scontent.fphx1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=6125C285

@DixieFlyer
That's a stunning contrast across the board.

NWS Phx published a review of last month's anomalous rain event across the state. It's 100% nerdy stuff that probably only Jim will be interested in. But just in case there's a silent lurker out there who also appreciates such things, here's the link: https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021

It's got lots of cool graphics and maps and whatnot.

chumley wrote: lots of cool graphics and maps and whatnot

There seems to be an ever increasing demand for whatnot.

LosDosSloFolks wrote: ↑Aug 03 2021 3:35 pm

chumley wrote: lots of cool graphics and maps and whatnot

There seems to be an ever increasing demand for whatnot.

It's like cole slaw. It comes whether you want it or not.

@chumley
Well I guess this makes me a silent lurker. I do find myself on NWS probably more than is necessary, but hey I work and play outside. Nice set of data, especially all the gage info. Some of those usually always dry areas get tempting for a well timed kayak.

chumley wrote:It's 100% nerdy stuff that probably only Jim will be interested in.

Jim is on the Subaru Forum now, he'll be back in a sec.

Yeah, it was really wet for a while and now it is drier. It's getting extremely hot again, too. NWS claims 111 today for my point forecast off the Cortaro Rd exit, and 113 for Phoenix.

I miss Piestewa on days like this, as you can safely hike it near sunset on a trail. For as much as some rave about the local hikes being better than Phoenix ones, Sombrero, Pusch/Pusch's Flatiron, and Golden Gate Mountain are not on real trails and are in really bad shape. There is something to be said for a real trail. Air quality is usually very similar this time of year, too, I think. Ozone? Maybe not? Then again, Piestewa is only hikable these days provided it is "open", but if it's over 100 I would wait until about 1 hour before sunset, anyway. Mormon Trail or Holbert would be nice options for roasting on a pretty good trail, at least.

On the plus side, if one was inclined to drive to Flagstaff, the next few days will probably be awesome days for hiking Humphrey's Peak, Baldy or Escudilla, or Mount Graham. I'd love a return trip to the Spring Mountains to either hike the Mt Chuck North Loop to some point along the cliffs, or Mummy Mt, but I hate Las Vegas so very, very much. Why did one of the most beautiful mountain ranges in the region have to be right next to such a god awful place?

Jim_H wrote:the next few days will probably be awesome days for hiking ... Baldy or ...

Heading up for a 3-day stint in the White Mountains this weekend with a plan to do Baldy on Sunday. As far as I can tell the weather is predicted to hold through the weekend, but the NWS is obviously hedging in their forecasts:

NWS wrote:Uncertainty does exist with the exact timing and extent of the moisture return, however ensemble guidance does signal that coverage will increase some during the upcoming week.

...or, "we know that moisture will return at some point, but since we've issued 5 vastly different forecasts in the last 5 days we're giving up and going with a statement that is so non-committal that we can't be wrong!"

Don't get me wrong, I really appreciate what the NWS guys do and having spent time in a past life trying to wrestle valid conclusions from a similarly chaotic model I can absolutely sympathize with the forecast roulette rut that they get into.... but... there has to be a happy medium between "x.xx inches of ran on Sunday" and "moisture will return at some point."

Jim_H wrote:I miss Piestewa on days like this, as you can safely hike it near sunset on a trail. For as much as some rave about the local hikes being better than Phoenix ones, Sombrero, Pusch/Pusch's Flatiron, and Golden Gate Mountain are not on real trails and are in really bad shape. There is something to be said for a real trail. Air quality is usually very similar this time of year, too, I think. Ozone? Maybe not?

Ozone levels have been high the past week in Tucson, does a nasty number on your lungs if you try to exercise according to my allergist. I'm getting older and crankier about all this. Between what is now a regular occurrence of wildfire season, then ozone issues off and on all summer I'm seriously tempted to go buy a place near water up in the Midwest to ride things out for 3-4 months a year. Can't go outside safely without asthma issues for 5-6 weeks now between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Would agree about the lack of a decent well maintained trail for training that you can simply do on autopilot. One slight thing I miss about central Phoenix.

@SpiderLegs
I believe Phoenix has the better hiking within the urban areas. Tucson, does not. Tucson has better large hikes like Finger Rock, Ventana ( where it isn't eroded), and Romero Trail ( to access Mount Lemmon), but Phoenix has the better after work or whenever 1 hour hikes like Piestewa, Camelback, and stuff like North Mountain, Lookout Mountain, and so on. South Mountain and the Tucson Mts are very similar, too, but I find the trails at SoMo a little nicer due to a preference for that vegetation. This is the difference between a city park and maintained trails, and a NF or NP, or just being in the county. I was able to keep enthusiasm up to hike Piestewa at least twice a week at certain times, and could now, too. Sombrero or any of Pusch, that is hard to do.

However, Tucson air quality is much better, so there is that. Maybe I should say Marana/Oro Valley has better air quality? I wouldn't want to actually live in Tucson, and judging by where most do live, few actually want to live in Tucson proper. This is part of why I wish I could have lived in the valley for several decades back before the 1990s and before the population and air pollution became completely overwhelming. I turned 11 in 1990, so clearly this was never possible.

The drought is often said to have persisted for decades now, and we may in fact be in a "megadrought". But regardless, after a couple of inches of rain it only took two weeks to change everything. Praise be to Cthulhu!

A few trillion gallons does the state good!

I ended up with a total 7.44 inches of rain at my place for July. Just missed being my wettest month on record, which is 7.47 inches in July 2017.

@rwstorm
your rain gauge is a lot more accurate than mine!

@DixieFlyer
I don't know about that, but getting accurate readings can be tricky. Especially using tipping bucket gauges that I use to record data remotely and then send it out to Davis Weatherlink and Weather Underground networks. One thing I learned long ago is that it is important to have backups when dealing with electronics. That is why I still have old fashioned 4 inch and 8 inch gauges to check on the readouts.

@rwstorm
I have often wondered when during a monsoon storm, "How do you measure the wind blown rain when it is flying horizontally?".