HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Here’s to 7,000 posts. That is all.

@PatrickL
But for some reason, keeping track of how many times we have posted in the forum is no longer considered important. At least, with my limited skills, I can no longer find that value. I was waiting for Chums to get ahead of me, haha!

@PatrickL
Ps that was one of my non sequiturs, sorry! I knew you didn't mean you had 7000 posts

Wow. Over 7000 posts. Thats a lot. Been a Ruff ride.

It's a tad windy down here in the Colorado River valley. Here in Needles, sustained 38, gusts to 45. I had been camping down at Squaw Lake, near Yuma, but left yesterday afternoon because of the forecast. Tent camping with wind in the 30's didn't seem like it would be fun.

I saw my shadow today, so we're in for another year of winter.

big_load wrote: ↑Feb 02 2022 4:34 pm I saw my shadow today, so we're in for another year of winter.

and....

A somewhat of a surprise storm system for northern Arizona and perhaps the Catalina Rincons? Hard to tell with the crude maps. SW Colorado will get even more.
I'll be happy to see between a 1/4 and 1/2 an inch of rain in my local desert, if that materializes.

Each progressive model run seems to be increasing the totals. Anything that happens will be a welcome result!

It appears to be a bit anomalous for typical winter storms here where usually a pattern shift results in several disturbances coming through over the course of a week or two, but this one looks to be solitary, followed by warmer clear weather once again.

chumley wrote:It appears to be a bit anomalous for typical winter storms here

This winter has been anomalous in NJ, too. Our recent pattern is that as fronts enter from the west, warm, wet storms blow up on their eastern side from the south. They're followed the next day by arctic blasts from the NW pushing the front out to sea. Thus temps, which have been running far below "normal" on average, have been whipsawing a couple of times a week between 15-20 degrees below seasonal average to 10-15 degrees above.

The other unusual aspect is that traditionally higher snowfall areas in the north and west haven't been getting hit as hard as the low, coastal southeast, which gets little snow in normal years.

As tomorrow is the first day of spring, the complete stats on winter are being tabulated.

Tucson has the first report among the trio of NWS offices in Arizona, and it's not too surprising ... warmer and drier than normal.

Tomorrow is March, and NJ is still struggling to get up to normal January highs on most days,

@chumley
When was the start of spring moved up three weeks?

@rcorfman When #science decided that weather should be studied by meteorologists rather than by astronomers.
Read more about things you never learned in school here.

@chumley
So I guess meteorologists needed some love since they up the forecast so often?

chumley wrote: ↑Mar 01 2022 7:49 am @rcorfman When #science decided that weather should be studied by meteorologists rather than by astronomers.
Read more about things you never learned in school here.

Not at all by coincidence, WNBC (NYC) head meteorologist Janice Huff did a segment a couple days ago illustrating how the mean temperature cycle aligns (or doesn't) with the meteorological and astronomical seasons.

@big_load
Janice has been there for a long time. Does Storm Field still work there (has to be a nom de plume)? Sam Champion?

chumley wrote: ↑Mar 01 2022 12:48 pm @big_load
Janice has been there for a long time. Does Storm Field still work there (has to be a nom de plume)? Sam Champion?

It makes me feel old to say that I remember when Janice was the new person, after Al Roker decided to focus entirely on Today. Storm Field is gone, replaced at WCBS by Sam Champion look-alike Lonnie Quinn at WCBS. Sam Champion moved down a few notches and is in the morning and noon slots at WABC. Their head meteorologist now is Lee Goldberg, a young whippersnapper.

rcorfman wrote: ↑Mar 01 2022 12:22 pm @chumley
So I guess meteorologists needed some love since they up the forecast so often?

I'd hate to be meteorologist in AZ. Compared to the Northeast, I think AZ has fewer strong controlling factors that lead to high-probability outcomes. They do a great job here of predicting how much of what kind of precipitation we will get as a function of location, and also of when it will start and stop, even though the bands are often just 10-20 miles wide. They do pretty well with temperature and wind speed, too.

The one thing they're most likely to get wrong is lake effect snow. It has to come such a long way to reach here and requires very high winds in a narrow range of directions. The moisture usually falls out before it can get all the way here, but not always, and sometimes it arrives unexpectedly.

@big_load Oh I remember pre-Janice fat Al! Those were the days. Chuck and Sue too!