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OK, a little morning frustration today. How is it that forecasting computers (and their human counterparts) can be so wrong sometimes?

POPs (Probability of Precipitation) are measured in percentages. How on a day when the forecast calls for a 0% chance of precip can it be raining on my way in to work?

I think I get more frustrated with the lack of updates to a forecast ... it still says 0% ... even though there are clearly rain showers out there!

This happens during monsoon storms, and especially during winter storms, in the opposite way. After a winter storm clears out, and the cold front clears things out, the forecast still calls for a 30% chance of lingering showers or something like that. Anybody who has lived here for more than two winters knows that once the front passes there will be a 0% chance after that (at least in the valley). I don't care what the stupid computer says. Sometimes looking out the window is better than looking at a computer screen.

And that's my Monday morning rant. Happy autumnal equinox (Wed 8:09p) everybody!

Who, besides "Weather People", can be wrong so often and still keep their jobs!?

Presidents, Senators, Congressmen, Cabinet members, Governors, Sheriffs, Judges, teachers with tenure, union employees ... need I go on?

Jim, I mean Todd :STP: , it's a forecast not an exactcast. You guys are looking for variables in nature to not be generated by a random figure.

Personally I'd trust a meteorologist over the majority of Presidents, Senators, Congressmen, Cabinet members, Governors, Sheriffs, Judges, teachers with tenure or unions.

joe bartels wrote:teachers with tenure

Don't have to worry about them any more - Az axed them with SB 2011. No tenure for all state teachers, no matter their actual years in service.

joe bartels wrote:Jim, I mean Todd :STP: ,

Funny, except I like cold weather, clouds and rain. And Flagstaff.

chumley wrote:And Flagstaff

we're gonna need a bigger laughing icon
Seriously though I hope he gets to live in a place he enjoys.

chumley wrote:except I like cold weather

you're just sick in the head

Oh, you two. When I read this I thought, "whoa, complaining about a meterologuist's obvious mistake is my job".

I actually am loving, or liking Flag right now. Probably because I can see the end coming up. Plus, the weather since I got back from Utah has been perfect. Just about 80 and sunny everyday. Great! I get what you're complaining about. I really hate it when they still say 6 to 10 more inches of snow when the storm is obviously past.

Add police to that list, too.

The way the precip percentage is calculated is really rather simple; During all the days past (since record keeping began) when the weather was exactly or very similar to what the weather will be today, it rained on XX% of those days.

So if the weather has been just like today 100 times in the past and it never rained before on those days, there is a 0% chance of it today.

Rocket Science it ain't. And how about those Major League ball players?? If they do their job 30% of the time on average (300 batting average), they're considered a super-star??

Wait a sec, you're all missing the core problem here...

chumley wrote: How on a day when the forecast calls for a 0% chance of precip can it be raining on my way in to work?

It rained and someone didn't share.

So if the records go back 1,000 days, the next time the weather is just like today the chance of precip will be .1%

Don't piss on my shoes and tell me its raining ;) . my favorite nypd blue quote

So here's the forecast for tonight. "70% chance of rain. 1/2" to 3/4" possible."

Ok, so how is it that we're going to get at least 1/2 an inch of rain, when there's a 30% chance it doesn't rain at all?

Wouldn't the forecast HAVE to be for ZERO" to 3/4" of rain? I mean, if its actually 1/2" to 3/4" then there has to be a 100% chance of rain! How else do you get to 1/2"?

There's two pieces of data in the same sentence that don't logically agree with each other!

chumley wrote:1/2" to 3/4" possible

ya gotta ASSUME thats the high-end ;) but I'm guessing no more then .314159265 on an inch.