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by chumley
Mar 05 2026 12:16 pm
Forum: Fatalities
Topic: Caution around Capitol Reef Utah 3/5/2026
Replies: 6

Re: Caution around Capitol Reef Utah 3/5/2026

I can't believe they found somebody driving the very rarely seen Subaru Outback near a trailhead in Utah, Arizona, or Colorado.
by chumley
Mar 02 2026 2:07 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

I had seen this nationwide map illustrating the temperature anomalies this winter posted in a few places but didn't recognize the source and didn't want to share it without first looking into where it came from. I include the link to the website home of the research project that produced the map. Yo...
by chumley
Mar 02 2026 1:53 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

The final observations from winter have been tallied and reported by all three NWS offices in Arizona. Broadly speaking it was the warmest winter on record. Tucson put together a more comprehensive infographic, including that the airport did not record a single reading of 32 or below all winter for ...
by chumley
Feb 25 2026 9:52 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

DixieFlyer wrote: [ image ]
Startling to be sure. But the scale of the graph as presented is incorrect and vastly underrepresents the increase this year. An accurate graph is attached.
by chumley
Feb 21 2026 7:17 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

Oh good. 90s in the forecast for PHX this week. Yay. :roll:
by chumley
Feb 19 2026 9:24 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

@azbackpackr Yes, the long-anticipated pattern shift was wildly hyped because it finally broke the record-breaking misery that has defined this season so far, but ultimately the results have been relatively disappointing for most areas east of the Sierra. A good stretch of the Mogollon Rim saw 8-10...
by chumley
Feb 18 2026 3:02 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

@azbackpackr It seems uncommon to be associated with a winter (snow) storm. I think later in the spring it happens more. I was just reading the Flagstaff NWS social page where they asked the public for snowfall reports and the universal response was pretty much “no way to measure” due to extreme wi...
by chumley
Feb 18 2026 1:12 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

@azbackpackr I feel like it's not terribly uncommon to have winds into the 60s in that part of the state? At least 3-4x/year?
by chumley
Feb 12 2026 9:55 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

The long-awaited pattern change seems to be slowly making having some effect here in the desert. Tomorrow looks pretty weak for the valley (no complaints for the higher elevations and south/east though!) and indicators of respectable amounts of both snow and rain across the rest of the state next we...
by chumley
Feb 10 2026 9:11 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Western Drought
Replies: 99

Re: Western Drought

TL;DR
Upper= Lake Powell and upstream
Lower= Downstream of Glen Canyon Dam (e.g. all of Arizona)
by chumley
Feb 06 2026 5:23 pm
Forum: Trail Chat
Topic: Carney Springs / Wave Cave trailhead permanently closing
Replies: 3

Re: Carney Springs / Wave Cave trailhead permanently closing

@Nighthiker
I feel like emergency responders don’t often get towed when they park somewhere that your vehicle might have a different outcome.
by chumley
Feb 06 2026 4:20 pm
Forum: Trail Chat
Topic: Carney Springs / Wave Cave trailhead permanently closing
Replies: 3

Carney Springs / Wave Cave trailhead permanently closing

Carney Springs / Wave Cave trailhead permanently closing. This has always been a bit of a questionable parking location due to its status on state trust land. Pinal County will be closing this down and shifting the parking access for these trails to the Lost Goldmine lot. I can't wait to see how th...
by chumley
Feb 06 2026 3:49 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Landscape of the Spirits
Replies: 19

Re: Landscape of the Spirits

@big_load
Well, we're over two years since you last posted, so I'd expect hikebot to give you a pass.
by chumley
Feb 04 2026 8:12 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

@AZLumberjack I don't know that one necessarily correlates to the other, but I certainly hope not! There is a very good indication of a shift away from the current La Niña influence as soon as next month, and forecasts leaning toward El Niño conditions by later this summer. Of course, while the sea...
by chumley
Feb 03 2026 10:24 pm
Forum: Weather
Topic: Atmosphere Comparison
Replies: 7697

Re: Atmosphere Comparison

Just a random observation. The normal high temperature at this time of year in Phoenix should be in the 60s. SIXTIES.
by chumley
Feb 02 2026 9:58 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Happy Ground Hog's Day
Replies: 4

Re: Happy Ground Hog's Day

Happy Marmot Day!

If what we've had over the past two months was called winter, I hope it's over. But if the shadow fortells cooler temperatures and atmospheric moistitude, sign me up.
by chumley
Jan 30 2026 9:28 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Western Drought
Replies: 99

Re: Western Drought

@Pivo I wouldn't disagree that perhaps throwing a few new voices into the discussion could be a good thing, but if coming to a smart agreement is desired, I might question whether one of those voices should be Katie Hobbs. :M2C:
by chumley
Jan 28 2026 10:38 am
Forum: Fire & Area Closures
Topic: Grand Canyon Lodge North Rim, Dragon Bravo expansion
Replies: 117

Re: Grand Canyon Lodge North Rim, Dragon Bravo expansion

----- Grand Canyon National Park plans adaptive reopening of North Rim in summer 2026 Grand Canyon National Park is preparing an adaptive approach for the seasonal reopening of the North Rim, evaluating potential impacts from winter weather to park infrastructure after the Dragon Bravo Fire. The par...
by chumley
Jan 26 2026 11:23 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Western Drought
Replies: 99

Re: Western Drought

@RedRoxx44
The EXECUTIVE SUMMARY is a reasonably compact 66 pages :sweat: with many useful graphs and charts describing the various alternatives and their potential effects.

And still, good luck!
by chumley
Jan 26 2026 7:59 am
Forum: Weather
Topic: Western Drought
Replies: 99

Re: Western Drought

The Bureau of Reclamation released their EIS for management of the Colorado River Basin water resources in the post-2026 time period. It did not include recommendations. Nerdy stuff here but if you're interested, the full details including the ability to register your comment: https://www.usbr.gov/C...

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