Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

This might be a question for Joe, but I'll put it here first. It looks like Elizabeth's posts are stamped with the incorrect time. I would have thought that the stamp was based on HAZ server time, but perhaps it comes from the user's computer? Elizabeth, is your computer clock correct?

[chumley]

Wait. That post of mine says 11:27, when its only 11:23. Must be an issue with the forum clock.

[Jim]

Your post says 1227 for me.

[azbackpackr]

Hmmm....ok I am going to post now and see what it says.

[azbackpackr]

Looks close.

[Jim]

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR A HEAD IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH SYSTEM.

So, it sounds like we might be sorely disappointed, and perhaps this will be a series of duds. Simply because they are calling for zonal flow, I'm starting to think that it will be warm and not impressive. Maybe just a little rain below 8 or 9,000'. If this turns out to be a dud, I think Snowbowl won't open until well after the New Year. It's been 4 years since that happened.

[azbackpackr]

Well, I for one won't be disappointed if this great hiking weather continues! I am planning to go back up to the Ferry on the weekend, and will cancel my plans if there is ANY bad weather, since I don't like that drive in bad weather. As stated before, I guess I am ready for a droughty winter, although it would make for a terrible river season in the spring.

This weather is incredible. Can't wait to hike to Plateau Point tomorrow!

[Jim]

I like this weather, too, and I hear it is better down low in the low 80s. Still, I would like to actually snowshoe the Peaks once more. A real snowshoe, off trail in several feet of snow.

[azbackpackr]

Well, that does sound nice, several feet of snow. Just as long as it is up there on the peaks, not on top of my trailer.

[Jim]

FRI THROUGH SUN...THE STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE ITS ORIGINS FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS STORMS.
THE MODELS BOTH SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE QUITE WET...SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

From the Grand Junction NWS office. Maybe it will be this way for us or at least the San Juan and Sangres, as they have been lacking moisture this season too.

And at 250 PM, the NWS IN Flag says this:

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MUCH COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE
6000 FEET. THE LATE WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GREATEST IMPACT ON TRAVEL
AND COMMERCE IN THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE I-40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. IT COULD POSSIBLY TURN OUT TO BE A LIGHT
SNOWFALL EVENT OVERALL SPREAD OUT OVER A 24 TO POSSIBLY 72 HOUR
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW LASTING 4-8 HOURS
DURING THE 1 TO 3 DAY EVENT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WINTER WEATHER AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS
COMING WEEK.

So, the plot thickens.

And, while it looks like CA, northern UT and northern CO will get something out of the storms, so far we won't get much.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[Jim]

ON THURSDAY...A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EVEN MORE PACIFIC
MOISTURE...MODERATE LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS A DECENT SHOT AT A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A COUPLE THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND CONCERNING
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. ONE...WITH SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND LITTLE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...SNOW LEVELS MAY STRUGGLE TO LOWER UNTIL THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TWO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE SPLITTING
AS IT APPROACHES ARIZONA...WHICH IS NOTORIOUS SITUATION FOR LAST
MINUTE FORECAST SURPRISES...USUALLY IN THE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN
EXPECTED CATEGORY. WE`LL KEEP YOU UPDATED.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...THE SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 6500 TO 7500 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

I'm thinking mostly rain below 8000', and not that much for town. My prediction, based purely on my gut instinct and the dry conditions as of late, is for less than 1 inch total for town for the entire series of storms, and no more than 2 feet of snow at 9500' at Snowbowl. This was my 1,234 the forum post.

[Jim]

BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...THEN BEYOND FRIDAY
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THIS FLOW...BUT ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

So, it looks like we are to stay dry. Unless things change dramatically, I say it will be well into January 2011 before AZ Snowbowl opens up. Liz, I know you like this, and I like the warm weather, but I would like to at least get some decent snowshoe snow on the mountain. I have my fingers crossed for a dump in January now. Maybe I'll get to strap on my shoes for the Dutchman then.


Hey, it could be like the central and southern Sierra Nevada on the Peaks, and who would want that? Well, a lot of people actually, me included. Check out these ridiculous predictions for the next week:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.ph ... 1&force=no

5 to 10 feet of snow is insane!

[chumley]

I'm predicting a total dud. Sunny with a chance of nothing.

[azbackpackr]

It is raining right now in town, and snowing on the Peaks. Some people are very happy about this, including Jim and also my daughter.

I just bought a book, Paddling Arizona. Looking at all the neat places to paddle makes me realize that yes, I do want the snow.

Right now I have a chance to get some good exercise, anyway. I am going swimming at NAU pool!

[joebartels]

10:24am I'm predicting a total dud.

11:08am It is raining right now in town, and snowing on the Peaks.

44 minutes, not bad

:worthy: chumley's reverse psychology :worthy:

[chumley]

44 minutes, not bad

:worthy: chumley's reverse psychology :worthy:

[Jim]

I thought he meant the deserts, not Flag, since the radar showed precipitation when he wrote that.

Actually, I'm not really happy about this. Since it is still going to be a dud for us and the Peaks, I would rather more of Monday's weather so I could go to Sedona and soak up the sunshine, lollipops and no rainbows. This gray overcast, no real precip and cold is not my bag. If it opened up and dumped that would be different, but that ain't gonna happen. Not this time, and probably not until well in to the new year, if at all this winter. Hey, is it too early to start talking monsoon 2011?

[chumley]

Hey, is it too early to start talking monsoon 2011?

Yes it is.

[Jim]

Well, just as well, it looks like things are dipping a little low on the earth (or high if not northern centric) and Flag is now calling for a total of 5 to 9 in town and 10 to 17 for the Peaks. Not spectacular, but something.

[azbackpackr]

Yes, isn't it interesting how they suddenly upgraded that from 1-2 to 4-8 or 5-9...?

Meanwhile, I got my mile in at the pool--what a great facility! Sedona hike on Sat. if weather cooperates.