Atmosphere Comparison

Jim · Post by **Jim** » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 07 2011 9:17 pm

I just got hailed on while walking Kai here in Tempe. That was a surprise.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 08 2011 8:51 am

@Lyding: Oh, that's dreamy. :yuck:

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 11 2011 7:48 am

A little warmer and wetter than the mean in Flagstaff in 2010.
We had our 11th wettest on record, with a surplus of over 7 inches. That really doesn't do much for the really dry 2009.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/2010_Review.pdf

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 11 2011 10:46 am

NJ is having an odd winter due to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation Index, which normally doesn't happen during La Nina. It's much colder and snowier than a typical La Nina year and the groove that the storm tracks follow is unusual.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 11 2011 1:21 pm

According to NOAA, it is 27 degrees right now in Flag, at 1 p.m. or so. On my porch it says 34. I am yearning for the desert and am heading for western Arizona on Thursday or Friday. Forecast is for the high 60's. Can't wait to hear the birds singing, and that gravel crunching under my Tevas! Can't wait to smell the creosote and the salt cedar by the river. Can't wait to see those craggy desert peaks and the big blue sky, and sleep out under the stars. I'm bringing my star chart, too! Cross country skiing is fun, hiking the Canyon in winter is fun, too, but I sure miss Arizona's "West Coast" in winter.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 12 2011 7:58 pm

It will be nice to get some warm sunny temps around these parts as is forecast for the next 5 days or so, but is this the first sign of a good winter storm? I hope so, we need more snow in these parts and the Peaks really need it. If nothing else, the tracks up there are getting thick, plus Snowbowl's snow is getting cruddy. Funny how they always seem to get a big storm (assuming this happens) after the long MLK weekend.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER AZ. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE INDICATING A DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 14 2011 8:49 am

THE MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM ARE
DEFINITELY ON THE LOW END AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS STORM... FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

Maybe we won't get anything substantial even if we do get a storm. It's still some time out. Until then I guess we'll have to suffer through this mild sunny weather.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 14 2011 8:59 am

Weatherbabe #17 on one of the phx stations last night said that the long range models are showing 2+ weeks without any rain in the valley. Usually a good storm up north results in at least a solid chance of showers down here, so I'm guessing there's nothing promising on the computer screens right now.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 14 2011 9:59 am

And I am leaving for the western desert in less than an hour! Woo hoo!

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 14 2011 10:00 am

Yeah, they backed off pretty fast on this next one, so I don't expect much from it. Dryday has much of next week in the high probability of rain category, but that means next to nothing. We may have some clouds, a cool down and small accumulations, but I think we may be looking at February before we get another good snow/ rain event in Arizona. It's a La Nina, so this is normal, right? Funny thing, the last storm really wasn't that impressive from a precipitation stand point. It got cold, really cold with all those really (-19, -30, -28) negative lows around here, but we really didn't get much moisture from it. Flagstaff only got 0.72 inches of liquid from that 15 inches of snow. Most of December's 3.4 inches of precipitation came from that week long miserable Pine Apple Express feed that gave southern California all of it's impressive totals. If that hadn't moved a little further south and given us our moisture and then produced that dense base on the Peaks, we would still be really dry and Snowbowl wouldn't be open. The point, the one big real or normal storm that came through was pretty dry, and the typical troughs with lows and snow seem to be staying away, so I expect a continuation of dry conditions. Maybe we'll get a nice big storm like we did in February of 2009?

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 18 2011 4:45 pm

Is it Spring? I just checked and it's still January, but it feels like Spring outside. I'm getting concerned that without another storm the base on the mountain will soon be gone.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 18 2011 7:53 pm

I have been wondering about that myself. Despite my enjoyment of the weather, it's generally not good to have a hot January in Flagstaff. Too dry a winter may bring more fires in summer, and less water to replenish the aquifer, etc.

I rode my bike yesterday, which I don't generally do unless it is actually warm outside!

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 18 2011 8:38 pm

I was in Sedona where it was 69 or 70, but it felt really hot out. It looks like we will end up with a dry January, and with about two weeks left and no talk of anything from the NWS, I could see us having a precipitation free January. I'm thinking of Humphrey on Thursday and hope the snow is still OK since it has been so warm lately. We need a really bid storm soon.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 21 2011 2:14 pm

I'm starting to get a little bit depressed about the lack of rain/snow that the little girl is bringing us this winter. At least we can count on the near-certain annual rain during the FBR Wasted Management Phoenix Open Silicone Show and Golf Tournament. Just two weeks to go...

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 21 2011 2:41 pm

chumley wrote:I'm starting to get a little bit depressed about the lack of rain/snow

I wish we could send some your way. It's snowing now for the fourth day in a row.

paulhubbard · Post by **paulhubbard** » Jan 21 2011 3:53 pm

chumley wrote:during the FBR Wasted Management Phoenix Open Silicone Show and Golf Tournament.

Hey, it's Cougar season that weekend!

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 21 2011 5:08 pm

I'll be there. Even if it rains.

paulhubbard · Post by **paulhubbard** » Jan 21 2011 5:09 pm

I volunteer and get the tough job of working the 16th hole. It's a hoot!

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 21 2011 5:13 pm

We need the snow up here. Snowbowl looks to be just hanging on to their stuff on the lower runs, and the snow in the back country is terrible. I think we will end up with a near to completely dry January in Flagstaff. As it is now, we officially had a trace. I'm hoping for a good storm in February.

paulhubbard · Post by **paulhubbard** » Jan 21 2011 5:22 pm

Yeah, I'm wanting snow for springtime waterfalls

Atmosphere Comparison

Atmosphere Comparison

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?

Re: How much Snow will we get this La Nina winter?