Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[PrestonSands]

@Jim_H
A Humphreys winter hike? Hmm...sounds interesting.

[chumley]

don't forget the incredible swap meets

Gotta be honest, not sure that's ever been said before.

[PaleoRob]

A dusting of snow on the mountains north of Kingman, around Calico, yesterday. Hualapai Peak obviously had snow on it as well. Lots of water in the dirt on the sides of the road, but not many standing puddles. Got rained on in Vegas on Friday.

[azbackpackr]

don't forget the incredible swap meets

Gotta be honest, not sure that's ever been said before.

Hey, for real. Check it out sometime. They are huge! Great place to get your produce, bulk dry fruits and nuts, etc. Plus all the weird stuff they have in those places.

[chumley]

Another .24 in the gauge at home. Not bad for a November weekend in the desert. The question is ... has enough snow fallen to last through the winter? Above 8,000ft, in wooded terrain I think possibly. 7,000? I'm guessing that the next week or two will see it mostly disappear. (also, it appears that the central portion of the state has received more from the past couple of storms than the White Mtns., so it's not statewide). But it is nice to see a little bit of an early snowpack out there.

[Jim]

Nah, it will melt. In 2006, after I moved to Flagstaff (where I no longer live if you aren't aware) there was a decent snow on the Peaks down to maybe 8000 or so. I did Fremont Peak around Thanksgiving Weekend and in all but the shady spots, it was gone.It's early, and it can be warm and sunny next week. Even with 18 inches of base at Snowbowl, I expect it to melt. It may just consolidate and create an ideal dense base for powder that could fall in a few weeks enabling the resort to open, but it was just in the 60s last week, so true winter is still a long way off.

[azbackpackr]

Just FYI, it has been snowing all morning. I had an errand to run at 8:30 a.m. and had to spend 10 minutes preparing my car. Now it is 10:30 a.m. and still coming down. However, it is warm enough that some of it is melting. The plow came by a few minutes ago. Sometimes they forget my street.

I suspect that within about 3 days most of it will be all gone here in town. But up higher it should last quite awhile.

Well, some may think this is my earned and due justice (because of all my recent whining): I applied for 4 jobs available at this one place. But the one they really want to fill is working outside, overseeing a crew of handicapped folks. Shoveling snow. I have an interview on Wed.

If I am hired, I am really really really glad I bought those Vasque Wasatch Goretex clodhoppers a couple of years ago. They would be great for this job.

[Jim]

We're getting some snow out here, in Kayenta, Utazona. Looks like an inch of pretty wet snow outside my fortress of funky smells. I expect there maybe at least several more inches on the Black Mesa.

[Jim]

Black Mesa and the central plateau high country of northern Coconino and Navajo counties seem to be ignored by the NWS. We have had at least 2 inches of snow today, the first inch melted but we are getting a nice second round. I can't tell how much but it might be about another two inches, making the total around 3. The mesas have to be getting more. The NWS only talked about the Chuska Mountains, out here, and called for 3 to 6. Well, we seem to have had 3, so why not mention B.M., which may have had more on the order of 6?

Oh, and if you're interested in Humphrey this winter, what about a 12er or 13er in the La Plata sub-range over by Durango and Mancos.

[PaleoRob]

Black Mesa and the central plateau high country of northern Coconino and Navajo counties seem to be ignored by the NWS.

Don't be too surprised when they aren't the last group to end up completely ignoring most of the Rez.

[Jim]

The entire 4 corners area of Arizona seems to be ignored by the NWS. We don't have any radar, and the reporting stations are far away.

[Jim]

I just consulted the websites and see that Wolf Creek Ski area at the pass appears to be one of very few ski resorts open in the region, and they have the most snow out of all of them. Impressive, given their location and the winter they had last year. They are reporting 45 to 56 inches as of early this afternoon. Nothing noted as being open in CA, UT, AZ, NM, or WY, and there isn't much open yet in CO, and those that are open, are really thin with their pack.

[azbackpackr]

You'll find out what it's like to live in a remote area. Your area doesn't exist. Like when I lived in Eagar, I got tired of people saying it's in Northern Arizona. Guess they haven't looked at a map of Arizona. I guess that's somewhat of a good thing, though. It is good there are forgotten places, "last best" places, remote places, that most people don't know about.

[chumley]

Impressive, given their location

They don't advertise "the most snow in Colorado" for nothing. Average 465" annually is pretty impressive.

Back in AZ, it's beginning to look like next weekend will result in another potentially strong rain/snow event. If it comes together even reasonably, I'd say that this is turning out to be a very unusual November.

[Jim]

Chumley, the location reference was in relation to last year's winter and the La Nina of this and the last winter. The San Juans and the Park Range are basically the wettest ranges in the state. Steamboat might get more snow than Wold Creek if they were higher up.

It is a very unusual November. It was 7 degrees for the low in Flagstaff on the 8th, and they (not we anymore) have had such a wet Autumn since September 1, that they are well over for the water year and less than 1/2 of an inch off for the entire year. Monsoon season was good, but considering how dry winter was, especially how dry January and March were, that is pretty good. Still, when you have an unusually xxxxx month early on, it seems that often the following season is the opposite of the early conditions. I guess we'll know for sure by the end of February.

On the other hand, the 7/10ths of an inch of rain Phoenix has had should be really good for wildflowers, provided there isn't a complete dry out.

[chumley]

With more hopefully on tap for this weekend. I was just reading a news article about how these storms have been affecting Nome and the west coast of Alaska. Because it's so early in the year, coastal ice hasn't yet formed and the storms are causing terrible flooding. Violent winter storms are common there, but apparently sea ice normally protects the land. These early-season winter-type storms are causing problems this year.

[Jim]

My brother in Anchorage has written that the snows have been unusually heavy so far this winter.

[chumley]

Looks like this weekend's storm is turning into a total bust. Except for Sonora.

[Jim]

Well, not for NW Mexico, which was dry last winter, and hopefully SE AZ will get some moisture, too, since they were so bad. If this winter is as bad as last, this could be one or one of only a few storms they get.

[Jim]

The low is tracking toward Baja California this AM, but Arizona will still benefit from it. Per the Tucson NWS:

OVERALL THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...
AS WELL AS MODEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (QPF VALUES).
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RECORD AROUND 1/3 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UPPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GRIDS FOR THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TIME FRAMES...AND TRIMMED BACK POPS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE A VERY COLD...WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN
7500-8500 FEET.

1/3 of an inch may be modest, but for last autumn and winter, that is a lot. Besides, isn't this the critical wildflower germination time, or it soon will be? 1/3 of an inch will help with that.