Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

And nothing. Dry on the ground this morning with only light flurries falling. From 5 to 9 to this.

[chumley]

I'm predicting a total dud. Sunny with a chance of nothing.

They are still calling for 3-8 during the day. We'll see.

[Jim]

We might get a total of 3 to 8 inches of snow that falls, but then melts. Snowbowl reported 1 inch from the last 24 hours and if they get 5 to 10 it should stick since it is probably colder up there. At least the southern Rockies in NM are getting snow, they have been far drier than we were this autumn.

[azbackpackr]

The ski areas are sweatin' it because both Snowbowl and Sunrise hope for enough over Christmas break to open. If they can't open, then people will go to Colorado for their ski vacations, and might not bother with AZ spring skiing.

Last spring Sunrise closed in late March, due to low attendance, even though they still had many feet on the ground.

I guess if you really want to be a skier you live in Colorado anyway.

[chumley]

Snowbowl reported 1 inch from the last 24 hours and if they get 5 to 10 it should stick since it is probably colder up there.

Snowbowl's Facebook is reporting 5-7" so far...

[Jim]

I got my info from their snow report on their web page, they update that at 5am or so, so it isn't current. 5 to 7 inches isn't bad, but it isn't great either, especially when 10 to 17 was forecast. Still, with the melt they had over the last two weeks, they won't open up from that.

But then after initially posting this I went back to their website and saw they are reporting 5 to 7 from sometime later in the morning and a total for the week of 6 to 8. Not impressive really,especially when the high Sierra has a forecast of 5 to 10 feet, but I guess anything is better than nothing. I had low hopes until they posted the overly optimistic 10 to 17 yesterday. When I was in Sedona on Monday I notices that it has been so warm lately that pinyon pines and some ponderosa pines on Bear Mt were starting to grow. Sedona airport has gotten more than 6/10th of an inch of rain while Flag hasn't had 3/10ths of an inch, so at least some areas that can use the moisture are getting it. On the Peaks, so much of the snow just blows away.

[chumley]

The Nordic Center webcam looks like there's only 2-3 inches. Forest Lakes at 7500 ft is still rain.

[Jim]

Thats more than what I have at my apartment by the airport. I'd say we have about an inch or 2. But that is because the snow has been melting as it falls. Rain, melting snow, what ever, either way it is some moisture. Sedona has had nearly an inch and Flagstaff has had just under 1/2 an inch of liquid.

[chumley]

From Snowbowl's Facebook "It's been snowing all day, 12-16" storm total. Still need more snow. Another storm moves in tomorrow through Saturday. Keep doing your snow dance."

[Jim]

We actually did pretty well with the moisture, 64/100ths for Flag and 1.12 inches in Sedona. I still doubt the opening.

[azbackpackr]

Got the big yellow school bus stuck three times up off 180 today, past the Snowbowl turnoff, where I had to turn off into some of those housing developments. No plowing, of course, not a snowplow in sight. I got the bus unstuck pretty quickly each time by rocking back and forth. What a mess. To me it looked like about 6 inches or more of very wet snow. But here in town it is back to raining again. It'll be icy in the morning. Hope I don't get called in to drive (I am still a substitute driver.)

[chumley]

Snowbowl storm total 14-18, Sunrise 8-10.

Looks like Sunrise might get shut out of this weekend's action, while hopefully the peaks can squeeze something out of the southern edges of the next round.

I bet Sunrise will open for Christmas, if only on Sunrise Peak, because they're making snow.

Snowbowl will probably need at least another foot of snow by the end of this weekend, get it packed down, and then hope for at least 6-inches more around the end of next week in order to open on Dec. 26. That's my "best-case-scenario" hope.

[Jim]

Not that I love Snowbowl, but man I hope we pick up another foot of this wet heavy snow on the Peaks. Then I can get a good old fashioned Dutchman Glade hike to Humphrey. If the stuff that fell up there yesterday was as wet and heavy as what we had in town, it has been a perfect dense base to coat the rocks and debris. Last year we had powder which wasn't very good until the dense wet stuff came in later January. Maybe things will not be half as good as what the southern Sierra is forecast to get, but 1/5 as good, and then we'll have another 2 feet by Tuesday which would allow them to open and mean the snowshoe season has begun. It would be a Solstice Miracle! I also see the Mt Lemmon Ski area is reporting 6 inches of snow. Thats not too bad.

[imike]

2nd snow of the year last couple of days... probably get a bit more this evening... 4-6" on the mountain in Cloudcroft. Helps cover up the portion of the Village that burned down a couple of days ago...

[Jim]

I noticed Ski Apache there in Ruidoso is open as they make snow.

[Jim]

Hahaha! Check this graphic out for the next 24 hours. 14.9 inches of precip. Thats insane!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Maybe we'll get in on some of the action in the western rim/ Peaks area.

[JimmyLyding]

We're getting hammered here in California. I saw a forecast that calls for rain here in the Bay Area for at least the next 10 days. Another weekend of no hiking for me....

[azbackpackr]

Ugh, the forecast really has changed since I looked at it this morning. I had planned on making a drive tomorrow, now I am reconsidering it.

[Jim]

BTW, the graphic is changed Q24h, but the forecast is for the coming week.

I can't imagine being in California's Sierra or the foothills when it is like this. 10 to 15 feet of snow, 10 inches of rain and 5 to 7 days of storms. At least when we had that massive storm last January it was in and out in 3 days. The weather channel says the track dipped a little further south than expected, maybe we will get a foot or 2 above 9,000'. I'm thinking of heading to Tucson for a few days this coming week to get out of the gray stormy weather.

[azbackpackr]

I am stuck in Flag until Tuesday. If you can believe it, my boss scheduled a training for me during FUSD's winter break, this coming Monday. Good thing I didn't have tickets to Hawaii! I had thought of driving up to the Ferry today but I don't want to drive 89 in funky weather.

Good thing Bookman's just re-opened, the pool has weekend hours, (1230-330, free for students) and I am invited to a big party at a very fancy house tonight. Lucky me!