Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

NWS posted this graphic to show precipitation from Jan and Feb 2011. Clearly things look dryer than normal. But it's a very misleading story! If you add two weeks to this graphic (beginning Dec 15, 2010) then the whole state is in the greens. What's the old saying about statistics never lie, but liars use statistics...

I also find it amazing that parts of western Maricopa County can be at less than 25% of normal, while just 100 miles to the west, it's above normal. We live in a varied state.

[Jim]

Yeah, I posted a link to the national precipitation analysis a little while back. If you set it to the water year and look at the departure for SE AZ, and all of NM, there is a substantial long term deficit. Late December was the only real wet time this winter for the entire state, but there still wasn't that much down in the SE corner. Jan-Feb deficits were very impressive, with only NW AZ and the Flagstaff area really doing well, and then only in February from the two storms. The desert area out by the river is above normal for that 60 day period simply because of the two good storms and the last one lingering in the area with some good down pours.

Winters like this make me wonder how there can even be trees on the Sky Islands, since they still have to do some growing before the monsoon arrives with enough moisture to saturate the soil. I guess they got that snow in late December (the one that opened Ski the Lemmon for 2 weeks), but it seems incredible that there can be pines and doug-fir when they probably won't have seen anything for many months by June.

[Jim]

In the friendlier side of the forest, at 2:54 PM, Snowbowl's website has this to say:

Storm total: 3-5" and still snowing

Light stuff in town. 3 to 5 is nice. Not a lot, or not much more than a dressing, but still nice.

BTW, anyone notice they updated their website, but some links don't work?

[Jim]

On Elden today it was really spring like, and with a week until it is here officially, I think winter is most definitely over. Don't think I'll miss it, really. Other than Humphrey and Whitney this season, winter is not fun around here. Even when it is mild. The February storms were a huge boon for Flagstaff and there is a good deal of snow on Elden above 9000'. The Peaks are probably pretty good too, and I would think Snowbowl has enough to last into early April. That is good, because it is starting to remind me of 2007 and that year was really dry from March to July. I wonder how the next few months will be?

[azbackpackr]

Jim, I'm over here in Eagar, and went over to South Fork of the Little Colorado this evening. I have not seen it so dry in spring, or the creek so low at this time of year in awhile. Furthermore the Salt River, which is fed via the White Mtns., is very low, so that the commercial season likely will be very short and will not begin on time. It has been running in the 200's. This chart of the Chrysotile location on the Salt is interesting, the mean data for each month over a long period of time. As you can see, there have been quite a few Marches in recent history where it was running low. Outfitters likely won't even put in at under 900, except maybe in inflatable kayaks. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/month ... ction_list

Ran a short stretch of the Verde yesterday, putting in at the 260 bridge at Camp Verde, and it was going along nicely at over 800. That's your Snowbowl/Humphreys snow, melting away!

Great for those who like to play in it twice, both solid and liquid!

[Jim]

Actually, none of the snow melt from the Peaks goes to the Verde, that's all fed by Rim melt, Garland Prairie melt, and maybe Bill Williams melt.

[Jim]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.ph ... 1&force=no

It's Spring!!!!!

But,

A STRONGER PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST BY
OUR LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG
RANGE GRIDS AS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

It would be nice to get some more rain or snow, but to be honest, I would rather just get on with warming up.

[azbackpackr]

Well, the Verde is one watershed I have next to no experience with. I need to study my maps more...

[Jim]

California is still getting it this season,
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

but Flag might only get an inch or two of snow and Snowbowl might get a foot of new snow. It was almost incredible how dry it is in the Tucson area. It looks like you've had nothing at all since the end of December storm that opened the ski area for 2 weeks.

[azbackpackr]

Well, I we do need the precip. Ugh. Maybe I should move back to Yuma, which has an annual average precip of about 3 inches.

[Jim]

Other than places like the Rim, the Peaks and maybe the higher spots in the Whites, say around Baldy, this won't really be an Arizona precipitation event, California will be getting a lot out of it, but by the time it moves inland it must be losing it's moisture tap, because it's looking pretty dry in most places. For Arizona, I would call this a more typical spring nuisance storm, with high winds, blowing dust and Interstate 40 being shut down as the main impacts. Not so for southern California where they are forecast to get several inches of rain in the coastal ranges, and several feet of snow in the Sierra. So, you don't need to be concerned with us getting wet. It will just be cloudy and windy! Yay! Don't think this will raise the river levels, either.

Oh, I got rid of my back country permit for the Peaks. Winter is over!

[azbackpackr]

Typical spring nuisance event. I like that...

[chumley]

Forecast calls for .33 to .67" in the valley, which is what the last two storms were forecasting, and they delivered accurately. I'll take it!

The higher elevation forests need 1"+ now, and at least one more storm of 1"+ in April or it's going to be a dry pre-monsoon summer up there.

[chumley]

A bit more than a nuisance storm. 13"-23" at Snowbowl. Only 4" at Sunrise. Looks like generally 8" across most Flag-area reports. As for rain, 0-.4" in the valley, and generally .5-1.0" in the higher elevations across the state. And it's a beautiful, crisp, clear morning. I wish my refreshing bike ride didn't end at the office.

[PaleoRob]

Rained yesterday here in CG all day. Some streets were moderately flooded, but nothing really serious. Wind blew trash cans around. Today is nice though - 60s with clear skies, all of the dust washed out of the air and remnant clouds hanging on by all the mountains.

[azbackpackr]

You are actually THERE now? Are you renting, just checking it out, or what?

[hippiepunkpirate]

Not sure what was on the ground here last night, but not a patch of snow on the ground outside my office window at Sunset Crater

[PaleoRob]

You are actually THERE now? Are you renting, just checking it out, or what?

Down here looking at houses and job hunting. I have an interview on Thursday and am hustling trying to get some more in before heading back to Page.

[Jim]

We had a good deal of snow. Elden had a fair amount, but it was hard to get a feel for the total due to melt and drift. Probably 3to 8 inches from bottom to top, but I could be way off. Doney Park looked total dry from Elden at noon. Pretty strong rain shadow out there. I'd rather have rain now. I'm sick of winter, snow and cold. A nice long moderate rain for terrain below 8500' would be nice. Wash my car off, soak the ground, and clean off the roads from the stuff that is put down in winter for the snow. Only 2 to 3 weeks left for Snowbowl this year, so rain up to 9500' would be even better for me. It would keep snow off Elden so I can get out for my exercise.

[azbackpackr]

They sent us out at 6 a.m. in the buses to slide around, but as soon as the sun came up it was starting to melt off very quickly. Unfortunately I slid into my roommate's car trying to get out of the driveway. No injury to the Buzzmobile, (old Honda Accord) but his newer Ford Escort seems to be made of soda cup plastic.