Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[hippiepunkpirate]

I am not enjoying the wind today.

[Jim]

You're starting to sound like me!

[hippiepunkpirate]

@Jim_H
Yeah I'm a closet FLG-H8ER

[JimmyLyding]

The weather has done gone crazy here in the West. Arizona is suffering through a brutally dry winter, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains are buried in snow. Squaw Valley Ski Area has reported 50 FEET of snow this season. When I lived in AZ I thought that storms typically rolled into northern/central California, then hit southern California before heading into AZ. It seems as if that pattern hasn't happened this year. The storms that we've seen here in the Bay Area seem to be rolling directly east instead of hooking down south before heading east into the central part of the country. I sure would like to know why this is happening, but I'm not sure anyone knows.
Is this happening because the storms have so much water in them that they're not able to make it over long distances of North America without discharging precipitation? Has the Jet Stream shifted? High pressure systems over Arizona that are deflecting storms to the north?

[Jim]

La Nina has a lot to do with it, but there may be some other reasons why the Sierra are over 160% of normal. The northern Rockies have also been very wet, but Colorado south of roughly the 38th parallel has been dry.

[Jim]

So, what do you think? Has Arizona seen the last of the real moisture this year until the monsoon comes in? I think it has. It's really starting to be spring in the Flagstaff area. It will be a dry one, as always. Well, except for 2008 and 2009 when we had that weird May snow and heavy May rains, but it is usually pretty dry up here for the next 2 to 3 months.

[big_load]

Unfortunately, that seems the most likely outcome. I'm steeling my resolve to lug a bunch of water. (And spending more time in the gym).

[chumley]

I'll go against the grain and predict an unusual and reasonably wet April or May storm. Probably during the last week in April since I'll have guests from out-of-town then.

[PaleoRob]

Supposed to rain up here Sunday.

[chumley]

In things that don't make sense to me:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
312 PM MST FRI APR 1 2011

...FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE REACHED IN PHOENIX...

AT 255 PM TODAY THE TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS IS THE FIRST DAY IN 2011 WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREES AND ALSO MARKS THE SECOND
EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 100-OR-GREATER ON RECORD /EARLIEST IS 26
MARCH 1988/. THE AVERAGE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY...USING DATA FROM
1981-2010...IS MAY 2.

A NEW RECORD HIGH WILL ALSO BE SET FOR THIS DATE...AS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 96 SET IN 1966. PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION WILL BE
PUBLISHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FINAL NUMBERS AVAILABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

But the stats straight from the PHX weather station say:

Code: Select all

Time	Temp.	Dew	Relative	Wind	Wind	Visibility	WX	Clouds	Sea Level	Altimeter	Station	6 Hr	6 Hr	24 Hr	24 Hr	Quality
Point	Humidity	Direction	Speed				Pressure	Setting	Pressure	Max	Min	Max	Min	Control
(MST)	(f)	(f)	(%)		(mph)	(miles)			(mb)	(inches)	(inches)	Temp	Temp	Temp	Temp	
01 Apr 3:51 pm	97	12	4	VRBL	3	10.00		SCT250	1004.8	29.73	28.541					OK
01 Apr 2:51 pm	97	18	6	VRBL	6	10.00		SCT250	1005.5	29.75	28.560					OK
01 Apr 1:51 pm	96	23	7	E	7	10.00		FEW250	1006.7	29.78	28.589					OK
01 Apr 12:51 pm	94	24	8	E	7	10.00		FEW250	1008.0	29.82	28.628					OK

How is it possible that at 2:51pm it was 97 degrees and 4 minutes later at the same recording station it hit 100?

[chumley]

Looks like we might get a little bit of rain midweek, and a wetter, colder storm by the weekend.

[chumley]

Looks like .1 to .3 was it for rain yesterday, but a Winter Storm Watch is in effect now for tomorrow night and Saturday with 6-14" of snow above 5k. That'll be a slushy mess.

[Jim]

I wonder what will happen with the airport in town. I'm supposed to get home on Saturday. Maybe they'll bus us from Phoenix to Flagstaff. They canceled a flight I had in December of 2009 because of a really light snow which was <1", I would expect flights to be canceled if the airport gets 4 to 8 inches in the day. It wasn't so bad last time, as I just had my flight out delayed a day, but I really don't want to be stuck in the far east or in Phoenix at the airport. Getting some more moisture is good, though. Really good considering it is nearly the middle of April.

[azbackpackr]

Well, at least with the government shutdown they are going to keep the air traffic controllers on.

[Jim]

Yeah, that too, I guess. Another glorious federal shut down. Yay.

Anyway, it's funny that a pretty large snow event is coming back to town. Snowbowl looks like it may get up to 20 inches. Not bad considering that this is their final weekend of skiing for the season. Well, unless they extend the season another week, but that is unlikely. I guess more snow is good. Flagstaff can usually use it, this time of year anyway. Can't say I want it, but that is a personal problem. Not just due to me flying home Saturday, but also because I was just fine to not have any more snow this season. All it seems to do is rain in the far east. I was looking forward to seeing the sun again on Saturday, and flying over Sedona on the way home. I guess that won't happen. At least it will be sunny Sunday.

[azbackpackr]

Jim, Elden is ALL white again. Peaks have not been visible all day, at least not from the East side where I drive the bus. Very icky weather. As you say, it's a personal problem that I don't like it. I know we need it. Besides, I have a paper to write this weekend. It's easier to stay indoors when the weather is bad.

[Jim]

Well, Elden can almost always use some moisture. Maybe the trees on it won't look so bad this spring and summer, unlike last year. Despite the wet 2010 winter, the dry spring resulted in little growth for a lot of the trees. The really dry 2009 summer probably had a lot to do with that as well. Either way, a little late winter/ early spring snow is probably a good thing for the area. I wonder how it will affect Snowbowl.

The really good thing about this storm is the forecast for the SE AZ deserts and mountains to pick up some water. Not a lot, and not everywhere, but the Catalinas and Tucson deserts will get something. The Chiricahuas won't get much, if anything.

[azbackpackr]

Dude, are you not back here yet? It is snowing to beat the band. 8 inches (I measured) at my house, and of course the plow has not bothered with my street. And it is coming down like cats and dogs! I am SURE Snowbowl has a couple feet already. I have not had time to look at their website. Good luck flying in here....

[chumley]

Snowbowl is only reporting 12" (as of 6am).

But seems to be a pretty good amount west of FLG. Surprised that Kachina only has 4.5, and the webcam at Forest Lakes only shows 3" so far ... but it should snow there for several more hours :

Code: Select all

..COCONINO COUNTY...
    12 N PARKS            12.0   719 AM  4/09                           
    GRAND CANYON VILLAGE  12.0   829 AM  4/09                           
    3 NNW FLAGSTAFF       11.0   750 AM  4/09                           
    4 S WILLIAMS          10.6   734 AM  4/09                           
    1 N PARKS             10.0   813 AM  4/09   AT 7500 FEET            
    WILLIAMS               7.0   731 AM  4/09                           
    2 N JACOB LAKE         5.0   533 AM  4/09                           
    KACHINA VILLAGE        4.5   645 AM  4/09                           
    DONEY PARK             4.0   646 AM  4/09                           
    1 E FREDONIA           3.0   533 AM  4/09                           
 
 ...GILA COUNTY...
    3 N PAYSON             1.0   409 AM  4/09                           
 
 ...NAVAJO COUNTY...
    3 SSE PINETOP-LAKESI     T   700 AM  4/09                           
 
 ...YAVAPAI COUNTY...
    ASH FORK              12.0   818 AM  4/09                           
    WILHOIT                6.0   726 AM  4/09                           
    2 W PRESCOTT           5.5   811 AM  4/09                           
    9 SW SEDONA            1.0   647 AM  4/09   1 INCH IN ONE HOUR      
    1 NNW RIMROCK            T   625 AM  4/09                           

[chumley]

Snowbowl is now up to 28" at midway. Nice storm for April!