Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

It's supposed to be hot with thundershowers in the inner Canyon, where I'll be going.

[Jim]

Where is the dome of high pressure that is supposed to be common this time of year? Where?

[chumley]

Flag has new 30 year normals posted.

Interesting that the annual rainfall is down an inch, with a wetter monsoon, but much drier rest of the year.
Also interesting that the late winter snows have significantly decreased from the previous normal*

*Normal: I find it amusing that something based on science even uses the term "normal" when referring to the ridiculously small sample of just a 30-year average. Especially when a tiny ten-year shift in the average can create such variable results. :SB:

Either way, I wish it rained and snowed more here.

[Jim]

Blah blah blah bwaaaa....Flag has new 30 year normals posted.

Interesting that the annual rainfall is down an inch, with a wetter monsoon, but much drier rest of the year.
Also interesting that the late winter snows have significantly decreased from the previous normal*

*Normal: I find it amusing that something based on science even uses the term "normal" when referring to the ridiculously small sample of just a 30-year average. Especially when a tiny ten-year shift in the average can create such variable results. :SB:

Either way, I wish it rained and snowed more here.

I didn't have time to write about it last night, but I noticed the changes, too. I found it interesting, that the new normal reflected my 5 year experience in Flagstaff. The old normals did not, or not as well. It got drier, and summers from July to August tended to be wet, but Septembers varied widely. Winters from December to February were a little wetter and generally snowy, but the old wet month of March got dry, and Spring was very dry, or drier than the old means.

I think most places refer to means or averages as normals to simplify for the public. I expect these same people either would not call them normals, or would understand the difference and what was meant if they did. Ten years is a 1/3rd of that period, and since there was a fairly large shift in the last decade from the previous ones, it doesn't seem that incredible to me. In fact, one thing I always remember hearing about the SW USA, and dry places in general, is the high level of variability they have, and the wetter to drier cycles they endure. This is usually compared to stable regions like the NE USA or Europe, which are well watered and more consistent from year to year. Still, we didn't decrease by 25%, probably more like 4% since it was just -1.05", and the airport and most of the ponderosa forest still gets over 20 inches a year with a sizable portion of that coming in the growing season.

I guess more precip would be nice, especially in the desert, but it is a desert for a reason. Does Flag need more? It can always help, but in the wettest year in the last 5, 2010, we had well over the average for the year, but still had a really dry windy spring. This spring was less windy for Flag and actually seemed wetter in April and May, which is better for the trees that are trying to grow in the otherwise dry and still cold season. For human surface water needs, having less snow or winter precip is bad, but for the forest, I wonder what impact it has? As long as we get snow, and it melts slowly over the course of the January to March or April period and saturates the shallow rocky soil, deep root growth can occur and the trees can store some growth energy for spring. As long as we get a period of heavy summer rains, some level of soil moisture develops and the plants can also grow and store energy. Fall is almost irrelevant (but not really) for just about everything but the conifers. Even with over 3" of rain in the early part of the month, colder temps and shorter days started the exotic trees and the higher elevation aspens, and the grasses towards dormancy. More rain at this point would be good, but not as good as spring precip.

Spring is the big loss, and it got drier and slightly warmer. Spring was already pretty dry for a forested area. That is a problem if you are a pine or an oak trying to grow around here. The herbage is still mostly dormant until the monsoon rains, and the exotics get their water from the hose, but it is harder on those plants, too. The natives still seem to do OK, and I bet it was like this or worse in the past, but it can have impacts with the bad forest management and really high tree densities we have today. Not just fires, but insects, root diseases, and generalized opportunistic pathogens. Plus, we humans cause a lot of injuries to the trees from many sources.

An analog to Arizona's Ponderosa Pine forest is the Black Hills in South Dakota, where they have ponderosa, but a different provenance, and gamble oak is replaced by burr oak. They have no mixed conifers other than a Canadian species, white spruce, but it is mostly confined to the northern parts of the hills. The area has drier conditions in many of the forest parts, but because they get snow and rain during the critical April to June period, the forest looks a lot better than ours. They get summer rains, but not like the SW, and their fall to late winter is drier. They still get some moisture in fall and winter, just not like us in that period. Seems like the spring period is the most critical for pine growth and wetter conditions at that time can make up for drier conditions the rest of the year, and especially in winter. I hear NAU forestry people (on the NAU Channel) talking about their predictions of ponderosa around Flagstaff dying off and P-J taking over in the coming decades. That isn't too hard to imagine if we keep losing the spring moisture below 8000' in this area. Places closer to the Rim are probably fine.
:SB: :FG: :bdh: :wlift: :-({|=

They're fun.

[azbackpackr]

Weather forecast has totally been changed since yesterday. Now showing very sunny and dry for the next 7 days, both in Flag and at Grand Canyon.

[Jim]

Ignore that, there is an issue with the FLAG NWS. Something about the site keeps locking up my internet browser, too.

Here is a Custer, SD climate summary.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?sd2087

It's about a mile high and surrounded by ponderosa pine, with burr oak along creeks. As you can see, it is really dry from October to March, but wet in the growing season. I thought they got less in summer, but the do OK then.

[azbackpackr]

Ok, it's back to forecasting thunderstorms. Sheesh. I liked the other forecast better, especially since I am only rigging a tarp in the Canyon.

[writelots]

Gotta look for those ledge camps, Elizabeth. There's a couple of good ones on that route, but you're SOL at Toltec ;)

[big_load]

Nothing but more rain, rain, rain here. Local flooding today was worse than during the hurricanes, but it hasn't hit the bigger rivers yet. I can't wait to head west and see the sun.

[Jim]

My father says the only good years in NJ are the drought years, and in them, they still get more rain than we normally do in Flagstaff. As far as I'm concerned, NJ is a rain forest, pretty much anywhere that gets year round rain and receives a mean yearly precip over 30" is a rain forest in my book. You guys must be up to like 50 inches by now.

[chumley]

Little-known fact: New York City receives more annual rain than Seattle.

[Jim]

And it's has lousy weather in general, the whole east and northeast does, but Seattle gets a bum rep becuase it's got California, the Snake River Valley, and the Great Basin nearby, which with their abundant sunshine, make the PNW seem like Maine. The mountains around Seattle get way more, though.

[big_load]

Nothing but more rain, rain, rain here. Local flooding today was worse than during the hurricanes, but it hasn't hit the bigger rivers yet. I can't wait to head west and see the sun.

Whoa, we got 4" today. I knew it was a lot, but not that much. Adding to the total through the 26th, that gives us 57.5" so far this year (at Newton). That's a lot, especially since the excess all came in August and September.

[paulhubbard]

If Phx got 57.5" i'd bet half the real estate would be in northern Mexico!

[Jim]

If Phoenix got 57", Flagstaff and the higher terrain would have 150", and we'd have a glacier on the San Francisco Peaks.

[big_load]

we'd have a glacier on the San Francisco Peaks.

That would be worth an investment in crampons (with appropriate training).

[outdoor_lover]

If we got 57" of precip, AZ would be the first Atlantis of the New Millenium. Nobody would ever find us, forget about CA falling in the ocean, we would be the new ocean bed, lol! Can you imagine Yuma????

[chumley]

I just saw a photo on that evil site joe hates of a snowcapped SF Peaks this afternoon! Nice!

[outdoor_lover]

@Chumley

Really! That was today? Yea! October's here! Woohoo!

[chumley]

It was today. It was really hail and not snow, but it was an awful LOT of hail!