Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

I don't know, I saw the forecast for 80 down low today and I would prefer that over snow, but it is still early and it will likely be another La Nina winter. Should be nice tomorrow, too, so I can hike Pt 6919 again and break 260,000' for the year. I do want snow, and a lot of it in the San Juan mountains, so I can snow shoe hike there. I expect to get more elevation there (3,000 to 4,000) per hike, so if I can go a few times next month I might break 270,000 for the year. In that regard, snow will be better than mild sunny days that would keep me local.

[Jim]

Storms a-brewin. Looks like we might get some decent snow up here.

[azbackpackr]

I may have to cut my visit to Eagar short, in order to safely drive back to Flag. The forecast has been amped up a bit since the last time I looked at it.

[chumley]

Looking like a solid 6-12" for areas above 7k. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict over 2 feet at the ski areas above 9k. I might have to skip Christmas this year. My tree cutting area is about 15-miles of dirt-road driving which isn't a whole lot of fun when there's more than 2-3" on the ground.

[Jim]

I skip Christmas every year, what is so bad about that? If you really need a conifer in your home, just poach one from the Dry Lake Hills, that area is over flowing with white firs that need removal. You'll be doing the FS a favor before the hills inevitably burn up in a Schultz/Wallow/Pumpkin type fire on some windy June day.

I think Snowbowl will be lucky to get a foot. It isn't predicted to be a very large storm and a day or so ago, they were calling for east facing slopes to receive more than western ones. Still too early for them to open up. Last year, Snowbowl got lucky when that Pineapple Express set up and they were able to open by 12/25. I think it will be luck if they open by 12/21. If it's a 2007-08 La Nina, they will do well and open early-ish with a good base. If it is like last year, they'll do OK and be lucky to open with a just an acceptable base. If it is like some other years, well, be happy you have the good years.


Then for me, why can't these long protracted storms come when i have 5 days on, like last weekend, and not when I am heading in to 5 off, like this one? I just got over 260,00 for the year, and if I can't get out this weekend, I might as well just hang it up.

[BEEBEE]

Sounds like I 40 is a mess they are reporting several accidents and a rolled over truck.

[BEEBEE]

US Airways just canceled 3 fligths into Flag

[azbackpackr]

I-40 eastbound is closed at the moment, just west of Flag. I-17 was pretty slow, according to my roommate who just drove up from the Valley, having seen 6 slide-offs and a semi-truck that had rolled and blocked both northbound lanes. But it has stopped snowing here. It snowed for quite awhile but it was not cold enough to build up more than an inch or two.

I drove back to Flag early this morning from Eagar, to beat the storm. All the way from Springerville, to St. Johns, to Holbrook on 180, and from Holbrook to well past Winslow, on the 40, it was sunny, but I could see the big cloud bank to the west, covering the Peaks.

People often ask me what route do I use to get to Springerville. Well, that's the route. Another route from Flag would be to take I-40 east to Holbrook, then 77 south to Snowflake, then 60 east to Springerville. That is about the same mileage, but I don't like it. Too much traffic, too many stoplights in the towns, etc. I prefer taking 180 from Holbrook to St. Johns and Springerville. That right there is about the emptiest stretch of highway in the entire state, on any given day. The big empty. It's great!

[chumley]

Got my tree successfully. There were a couple of hours of good snow this morning, dropping 2-4 inches on the western rim before clearing up a bit this afternoon.

Hwy87 was a mess from Pine all the way up to Clints Well in the 10am-12 range. I was behind the snowplow which kept things going slow, but was probably good because I saw two pickups off the road between Pine and Strawberry where there was very little accumulation.

The plow got stuck going up one of the small hills before the Hwy 260 junction, and had to radio for help. I drove around him. Once on dirt roads, it was so much nicer, easier, and safer to drive. The clouds were low and visibility was near zero until the snow finally let up. Then it just turned into a beautiful cloudy, 33-degree day up there. Managed to get the trees and headed home. Hwy87 was wet but clear even up on the rim when we left around 2:30.

[big_load]

I bailed out of Sunset Crater when the snow got too heavy. I should have thought to go directly to Wupatki, but I didn't realize how much lower it was, so I didn't think the roads would be any better. I went back out later on in time to get a few sunset shots. I'm already getting to dislike Flagstaff traffic.

[chumley]

Snowbowl only reporting 9" so far. Snow stick at Forest Lakes is up to a foot. Forecast looking for a showery next few days. Looks like about 2-4" predicted for every 12-hour period through Sunday. That could add up nicely if everything comes together.

Sunrise didn't see snowfall before sunset yesterday. But reporting 5-8" so far. Looks like the eastern rim and White Mtn's are still getting good snow this morning too.

[chumley]

WOW! Looks like a heavy band set up right over Show Low. TWO FEET! While 60 miles west, Heber has 7".

Code: Select all

SHOW LOW                24.0        945 AM 12/02
LINDEN                  15.5        940 AM 12/02
TAYLOR                  14.0        910 AM 12/02
SNOWFLAKE               11.0        640 AM 12/02
HEBER-OVERGAARD          7.0        729 AM 12/02

[Jim]

That band that set up over the eastern rim dropped quite a bit of snow last night. We did well out here, too, and probably scored about 5 to 6 inches total. It's a nice wet snow. I see Snowbowl got only a small amount considering how the town did. 9" isn't very much, but they were not forecast to get much. Still, it's a start for the mountain to help build the pack up for the winter. The Snowslide Canyon Snotel reports only 9 inches of new snow, but the pack is 22 inches deep and there is 4.5 inches of liquid equivalent there. It is only December 2nd.

The more I think of it, the less I want to do Humphrey this winter. Oh sure, I probably will, or might at some point, but I really want to go to Colorado and summit La Plata and San Juan Range peaks, if I can. I understand access to the La Platas is fantastic, so I feel why do the same peak I have done 82 times, yet again? Really, as I told Liz, the reason I feel like I should hike it once more this winter is because I expect it to be the last winter before they expand the parking/playing area and make snow. I don't want to deal with that. Over the last few winters I learned that it is better to start late and come down late to avoid the resort nonsense.


A second colder storm is due tomorrow and tomorrow night. I plan to go to Flag Sunday to hike Elden and do some light shopping. I wonder if I should bring the snow shoes for Elden? My guess without seeing it would be no, since the trail is so rocky you need to measure the snow in feet, not inches, to need the shoes on Elden's south face.

[PaleoRob]

Better to have the shoes in the vehicle and not need them than vice-versa...

[Jim]

While it says nothing about the rest of the mountain or the back country conditions on the San Francisco Peaks, since deep obstacles like down trees, old stumps, and big rocks require a lot of snow to be completely buried, there are rumors Snowbowl may be able to open after this next storm, should it deliver as forecast. The claim I read at the Kachina Peaks site, is that they have a 29" base at 10800', which is good for that altitude, but that really doesn't say a lot for the bottom of the bunny runs, which are their bread and butter money makers. 10,800' is the top of the Dutchman, and with just over 2 feet at the top, there would be less at the bottom, and so the rocks would be a mine field of leg breaking holes. Still, with grooming and the last few storms potentially dropping a wet base that might have matted down the vegetation on the lower runs, they may be able to open if another foot should fall. Isn't that nice.

More important, I think, it the widespread beneficial low desert rains. Tucson got over 1/2 an inch, and unlike last season, it might have a good spring flower show in a few months. Our spring up here is too cold and windy to really have a pleasant display, but we got a fair amount of snow, too. As soon as it melts, I'll have a ton of mud.

[chumley]

Snowbowl is reporting very thin coverage in the lower elevation/lift areas. Also, the snow they've gotten is very light and they've had a tough time keeping it on the mountain. I think it's gonna take another foot+ storm before they can open.

[azbackpackr]

I'm surprised Sunrise hasn't opened yet, but they are still hiring winter staff right now. They do manufacture snow there, but it was really warm over there before this latest storm. I just looked at their website, and it says they got 18-24 inches of new snow in this last storm. But it doesn't even give you a projected opening date.

[Jim]

It is still very early for all of this, so an opening of either or both in 2 weeks would be spot on and perfect for their bank accounts, and the investors. Also, it was at least -4 in Flagstaff last night, and this seems pretty early for that, too. I consider -4 bitter cold.

[azbackpackr]

I haven't set foot outside in at least 24 hours, so I wouldn't know how cold it is. It's warm in my house! I thought about going cross country skiing. Maybe I will.

[Jim]

Really cold on Elden yesterday, too. Every year, at the beginning of winter I find the cold hard to take, then, I get used to it but it never really feels "good". Later, in late February or early March, I get sick of the cold and snow. I have about a 2 1/2 month to almost 3 month window where I can take the cold and snow, or had when I lived in Flagstaff. I better develop some adjustment to winter, as I want to summit some peaks in the next couple of months.

You might not be able to ski Snowbowl, but the San Juans and Wolf Creek have a ton of "early snow". 159" for the season, 64" depth at midway, and 44" from this recent storm. Yet they still report early season conditions. If Snowbowl had a 64" base, that would be about the peak of their season. They don't get any better than that, and they certainly wouldn't be reporting early season conditions as Wolf does.