Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

Storm tracks could change, but this could also be a very good storm for AZ.
So far, it looks impressive for SE AZ, as well as central AZ and the higher terrain of northern AZ. The Peaks might get another healthy and potentially moist storm. I think even extreme SW Colorado may get a good snow fall. That is, if the forecast holds true. Will people be skiing the Lemmon by next weekend? Hmmm, probably not with what is forecast, but that is still great to see up to 16".

[azbackpackr]

If you plug Greer and Pinetop into the NWS site, it predicts over a foot of snow. It's supposed to be pretty rainy in SoCal, also.

[Jim]

These are exciting times we live, Moon Pies, and everything!

[chumley]

It looks like they are predicting 8-16" statewide above 6500ft, with higher amounts at higher elevations. There's one advisory for 15-30" in the White Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 feet (and possibly more ) above 9000 feet.

[BEEBEE]

We got some rain going on here in the valley today. I suspect you folks up north are getting some snow.

[Jim]

I think Snowbowl will get enough to open officially for the season by the end of the week. That seems very likely. And for me, the San Juan Mountains, especially the areas on the SW edge, will get a good deal of snow.

[chumley]

It's starting to look like Snowbowl might largely miss this one. They will probably still get enough to open full time, especially if it's wetter snow and/or not too windy up there. But I'm starting to think that points east and south that will really get rocked. Washington Park has 6" so far. You don't see that location cited very often in the NWS totals report. I expect Sunrise to get (ahem, report) at least 3 feet.

Here in the valley, there are some spots in the foothills up over .5" so far, while most of the lower flatlands have less than .2"
It will be interesting to see what the overnight brings.

[azbackpackr]

Snow has turned to sort-of-rain here in Flag. The ground is wet, not snowy. At a higher elevation, such as Snowbowl, it will be snow, however. But it is not coming down very hard, more of a drizzle.

[Jim]

I don't know, SB is forecast to get well over 1 foot at the bottom, closer to 2 feet if the high end forecasts pan out. It is a fairly wet snow, too, with the sub-tropical tap. We've had a good amount up in Kayenta, and the San Juan should get a lot, too. I think the SE part of the state and SW NM will be the big winners, by far, but the traditional locations will still be fine.

[Jim]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/abq/brief ... g_1212.pdf

No sound for me, don't know if there is any or not, but the ABQ NWS appears to be comparing this storm to one in December of 2007, which was La Nina year, but a pretty good December to February for the state. If this is a similar year, we should have a very good winter.

[PaleoRob]

It has been raining constantly down here. No rain gauge, so I don't know how much has come down, but there are standing puddles in my yard that have been there for a while now...

[Jim]

Ought to be some nice flowers in that part of the state, or cotton. Either, or.

[chumley]

Only 6-10" so far for Snowbowl. 10-12" for Sunrise. More on the way, but I still think Snowbowl isn't going to see more than a few more inches out of this.

I've got .53" so far, but it looks like the higher elevations have received 1-1.5" so far. I hope it keeps coming. The sun shining in my window right now isn't really what I wanted to see today.

[Jim]

It appears that the NWS in Flag has lowered their predicted totals for the Peaks. Snowbowl reports 10", but they do not say where. Looking around the State and on NWS sites in NM, the lower areas, especially in the places that were extremely dry last winter, have been the big winners. Lots of impressive totals so far. This isn't to say the peaks can't get more, or enough to open by the weekend, especially if they were open this past weekend, but it looks like the low's track has changed and the 2 feet that might have come will not. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/php/product ... NS&sid=EPZ

Eastern NM doesn't appear to have had much, but western and SW NM did well. Good news if you like the Gila NF. Tucson, Safford, and valley sites in SE AZ also did quite well. The storm still has almost another 24 hours, so it isn't over yet.

[azbackpackr]

River data not huge, but Santa Cruz River at Cortaro Rd, 515 cfs. Not sure why, but Colorado River below Laguna Dam is at 1600+, whereas it is often only at around 300. The Verde near Camp Verde is not up yet, nor is the upper Salt, nor is the LCR. As storms continue, watch the middle column on this data page, looking for values to change: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=flow

Often there will be creeks that flash hugely during big storms, such as Hassayampa River, Tonto Creek near Roosevelt (oh, look, it IS flashing a wee bit, at over 800 cfs), but on the other hand, it peaked in Jan 2010 at 72,200. Which is hard to picture.

[chumley]

it peaked in Jan 2010 at 72,200. Which is hard to picture.

http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=119171

[azbackpackr]

it peaked in Jan 2010 at 72,200. Which is hard to picture.

http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=119171

Nice! Thanks!

[Jim]

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sntl- ... 7&state=az

Looks like a modest accumulation for the Peaks, but it was a dense wet snow. If nothing else, it can help create a dense base. Another storm may come through later in the week and it would probably be a cold dry one with fluffy powder, should anything actually accumulate. Snowbowl might be able to open. Not sure how the backcountry is. No real beta yet on the Kachina Peaks site, but I expect this did not create excellent early season conditions. 30" is probably barely enough to cover all the rocks and down trees, on the off chance anyone like Preston is thinking of doing that.

[outdoor_lover]

I don't know about some of the other parts of the Valley, but the Central, South Phoenix and South Scottsdale areas are just getting a ton of rain. It's pouring again and I was constantly getting rained on at work all day.

[Jim]

http://rainlog.org/usprn/html/main/maps.jsp

I was looking at that earlier. Some pretty good totals, all over central and southern AZ. They are 12 hours old now, and tomorrows numbers won't include the previous 24 hours, but there are some very healthy numbers all over the place.