Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

It sure was nice today in Yuma! My goodness! So very balmy! Maybe I will spend another winter there sometime....

[Jim]

Continued nice weather, but a cool down is coming. A storm might graze my area over the weekend and lightly dust Colorado. I'm less interested in Arizona, and wondering when California is going to get anything.

[PaleoRob]

Compare this year's snow pack...


to last year's snow pack at the same time...


From: http://www.startribune.com/printarticle/?id=136709123

[Jim]

Pretty thin. It's not as early as it was, and in another month or so this might be a huge problem.

[PaleoRob]

Yeah, it certainly could be a big deal very soon.

[azbackpackr]

It is like spring here in the White Mountains. People are enjoying the weather, but worrying about what it will mean for next summer.

And the Salt River runners are wondering if it will be another DUD of a spring rafting season on the Upper Salt.

[Jim]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/Top10_2011.pdf Flagstaff's extreme weather of 2011. Most interesting to me, was the cold on slide 3. It was -38 at a location out by Williams, but only a mild -19 at Flagstaff. It was the coldest I was ever in. Nothing quite like the sensation of my sweaty hand burning from the cold and moisture evaporating from it when I had no glove on that morning. My heater went out, I was awake, and so I went out to experience it. The big hail that sounded like someone throwing rocks at my apartment early in the morning was also memorable. Also, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/2011Review.pdf Flagstaff never got above 89 in 2011. It seemed to not break 90 during half of the years I was there.

[Jim]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... rought.gif Brown already is droughty, with most of northern California under moderate drought at this time. Looks like the southern part of California will join us in being dry. I wonder when a real winter will start? I don't see how Colorado will not further develop into a drought but that is just me. This has been really weird so far, when was the last time we even had a normal low come down the California coast and then move inland and track somewhere over the SW?

[chumley]

It's been frightfully dry for a long time now, and there's no sign of the pattern shifting in any of the forecasts I've seen.

This could have a negative affect on wildflowers and fire season, especially in the high-country. The fire danger, however, can be saved with only a couple of good storms in late-winter and early-spring, which I'm definitely hoping for. The snow-pack in Arizona is on par with the lowest years that I can recall.

In other news, apparently Alaska is getting all of it, with all-time record amounts of snow along the southern coast so far this year. Ironically, the record snowfall in Anchorage (~132in / avg 69in) is less than Flagstaff (~210in /avg 109in). Whodathunk?

[JimmyLyding]

Report from here in the Bay Area. We've had beautiful weather, but that means nice warm days with zero rain. The hills are still brown when they should be a beautiful green. Ski areas in the Sierra Nevadas are getting killed because of the lack of snow. There's little worry with respect to the short-term because we had a ridiculous amount of precipitation last year. The reservoirs are still mostly full.

However, the long-term prognosis is problematic. Last year the La Nina was supposed to lead to a dry year for Northern California, but we got pounded. That goes against the pattern for that weather phenomenon, but the persisting and relatively weak La Nina is behaving true to form. We haven't seen more than sprinkles here in the East Bay since Thanksgiving weekend.

The long-term prognosis is bad because of the seeming unpredictability of the current weather pattern. A dry year-wet year-dry year-wet year etc. pattern isn't unmanageable unless you throw in a few extra 2- or 3-year periods that are very wet or relatively dry. A 2- or 3-year dry period hurts water supplies, increases the risk of wildfires, and damages agriculture. It's problematic to try to plan for a 10-year period when there will be 6 dry years and 4 wet years when you don't know when the respective types of years will fall, and whether or not it will be 6-4 in terms of wet-to-dry years, 7-3, 9-1, whatever.

The high pressure system over California is supposed to break late next week, and then the storm track is supposed to get rolling. We'll see if- and when that happens, and hopefully it will get up to AZ.

[Jim]

The wind is up, out here on the high desert plateau. Must mean a storm is coming. Looks like northern California, northern Utah, the western slope of Colorado and the northern Rockies will get some snow. Still, over the last 60 days, the Sierra is down about 10 to 16 inches of liquid, and 4.1 is about what this will deliver around Tahoe. I think I can do without. I'd much prefer rain to snow, now. At least below 7,000'. Down with winter. Booo. I think I should have gone to the gathering in SE AZ, it was way too cold at Red Mt Pass last night. That gives me a thought, I'll put it in the other thread.

[Jim]

Snowbowl is reporting that the Hart Prairie and Aspen lifts are closed until they get more, real snow. I was surprised they opened with the base they had, being so thin. They finally had to close those runs. I have a good idea of how bad they looked, having walked across them in years like 2009 when the base virtually disappeared before the big February storm saved them. I wonder if the state will get a big storm in the next 6 weeks. One that delivers a lot of snow above 6500', and rain below. I say, if it doesn't happen in the next 6 weeks, by March 1, we will be dry until monsoon season, except for little nuisance storms. Those are usually more wind than precipitation, anyway.

Curiously, Flagstaff hasn't been below zero yet this season, which contrasts sharply with last winter's -19, and several other negative lows. For the 5 years I lived in Flag, every winter it had been below zero by this point, usually well below. I wouldn't be surprised if this winter didn't go below zero, either. Not if it remains mild and dry, without storms or strong cold fronts, and certainly not if nothing happens in the next 6 weeks.

[chumley]

Lets hope that the Sunday/Monday system develops into something significant. Though even 3-6" type storms would be welcome right now.

[Jim]

I think that storm will be less than stellar. The http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif has increased the totals further north and almost eliminated them from the central and southern Sierra. We aren't really forecast to get anything. We need one or two of the large Pacific storms that moves down the coast, picks up moisture, and then comes in around LA and tracks over the northern 1/3 of the state, pulling up moisture as it moves and drops it over the state, plus NM and CO as well. I don't think there has been one of those this season, not since November, at least.

Curiously, the storm from yesterday did SE AZ pretty well. Some of the Tucson area other reporting stations, like Scout Camp (1.11") Suguaro (.43") and Rincon (.64"), report decent totals. The Airport and Davis Monthan give .13 to .14". At least it's something. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... one=AZZ504

[chumley]

It was quite pleasant driving home from hazfest in the rain on Sunday night. It drizzled most of the way from Tombstone to Tucson, and there were occasional rare spits between Tucson and Phoenix too. Radar looked as though Pinal, Graham, and southern Gila counties got a nice moisture plume Sunday night, and Sunrise reported more than a foot of snow, so perhaps the Whites did ok too.

[azbackpackr]

Pobrecitas de ustedes!

[Jim]

Well, it looks like this series of storms is turning into a traditional La Nina pattern. Favoring most places but AZ and NM. California, Utah and the western slope of Colorado will finally get something impressive, but we'll largely remain dry with just very high winds. Gust to 41 MPH tomorrow, which means dust, dust, sand, and dust for Kayenta.

[chumley]

Gust to 41 MPH tomorrow, which means dust, dust, sand, and dust for Kayenta.

I hear there might be some particulates too.

[hippiepunkpirate]

So I have to say it, every time I read the current name of this thread, it makes me think dirty thoughts

[Jim]

So I have to say it, every time I read the current name of this thread, it makes me think dirty thoughts

Well, that just says more about the reader than the writer. Besides, it's spelled differently. Either way, With the snow, or lack there of this winter, I think we should all think dirty thoughts.