Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[big_load]

@chumley
Yeah, the way things have been going, it was only a matter of time. And to think that not long ago we had 10 inches of rain in just a few hours. I was walking on rail trail yesterday just a couple miles from home and noticed that the high-water mark was over my head.

[Jim]

All this chit chat about fires makes me wonder when our season will get going and how it will be. I expect my Tucson trip in 2 weeks will be too early for anything large, but a a couple of weeks later will be different. I would like to see fires in the Rincons and the central Gila, say in McKenna Park.

[Jim]

This coming nuisance storm is not welcome from me. We'll likely get nothing out here, and the areas of the state that get anything probably won't get much. It is great for California, though, but still irritatingly late. I could see the dust from Black Mesa today, and when I got home it was horrendous. Your haboobs have nothing on hour, after hour, after hour after day or several days, of dust, and then there is the power going out and on and out, and on, and out, and you get the idea. http://hikearizona.com/photoset.php?ID=19578

[azbackpackr]

Overgrazing is the underlying cause of that.

[Jim]

Yes it is, but soil type is a big factor. The sandy soil has a pretty good grass cover around the mesa, but the heavy clay soil derived from the shale is a rock in summer and mud in winter. No grass of any real consequence grows in it today, just a few tough shrubs. I think there was probably grass on it before the Navajo destroyed the cover by over grazing, but it is all gone. You can see the soil changes in satellite images, and when I drove to Chilchinebeto in winter there were dramatic shifts in vegetation just by going between soil types. You never get far from the mesa, so water and rain shouldn't be too different, so the soil made the difference.

[Jim]

Well, Flag got up to a foot of snow. Not bad for mid-April. We mostly had about 48 hours of really viscous dust out here, but it did flurry yesterday. BM has some snow on it's north face. Not sure what is up there, but I likely won't hike up there Tuesday as planned. Tomorrow is way too early, and I expect muddy conditions Tuesday. Just as well, I shouldn't wear out my staple hike for the area so soon. Maybe a road hike to an area know as the diversion dam.

[kevinweitzel75]

Was just up at Reavis Ranch. Snow flurries most of Saturday, nothing the stuck but sure made a muddy mess of the trail north of the saddle.

[Tough_Boots]

@kevinweitzel75
I hope this late snow didn't frost off all the apple blossoms. They were in full bloom last weekend. It was looking like there might be a great apple season down there this fall.

[chumley]

I had friends camped out at Reavis Friday night, and they said they woke up to snow and it snowed the whole hike out Saturday. I saw a couple of phone photos ... it was definitely sticking, but in the >1" range. I wouldn't think it was cold enough for long enough to mess with the apples. The snow level was lower than the freezing level, if that makes any sense.

[kevinweitzel75]

There were some patches of snow all the way to the ranch, but as we dropped down from the saddle into the ranch, noticed not so much snow. Now coming up the switchbacks there was plenty of snow falling. That was starting to stick, bit was gone by time of our hike out. Apple trees were in full bloom, and didn't seem to be effected by the cold weather.

[chumley]

As I was trudging through the snow on the rim Saturday afternoon, I kept thinking to myself what a great storm this was for the area. Though the temperature hovered between 27 and 29 all day, the snow kept falling, yet the warm ground kept melting it from below. If it takes 2-3 days for that 8-10" of snow to melt, it goes a longer way to help than if it had all fallen as rain. If we can get one more storm (most assuredly rain rather than snow) next month sometime, I think we have a good chance at preventing a catastrophic fire season in the pines.

[kevinweitzel75]

Suppose to have a storm moving in around April 25 or so. Will see how accurate AccuWeather really is.

[azbackpackr]

Well, I'm feeling right at home in Puntarenas today. First, the heat, building slowly throughout the day. Clouds over the mountains. Then, after lunch, as the heat and humidity continued to rise, I fell asleep in front of the fan in my room (no A/C here). Awoke to hear, very faintly at first, rumbling thunder. Now it's after 2 p.m. and the rumbling is much closer. The clouds have covered the sun. The entire Puntarenas peninsula sits, baking, waiting for the healing rain!

I'm going to walk over to the beach right now, just to see the storm moving in.

[kevinweitzel75]

Sure, rub it in Liz.

[chumley]

Will it happen Saturday? Sunday? NWS seems confident that PHX will notch the first 100° day this weekend.

[chumley]

There were some patches of snow all the way to the ranch

Finally got some photos from my friends who were there Saturday morning. Looks nice!

[kevinweitzel75]

.@chumley
Nice! Wish it would have looked like that when we got there. It was all melted when we showed up at about 4pm.

[chumley]

Suppose to have a storm moving in around April 25 or so. Will see how accurate AccuWeather really is.

I don't think AccuWeather (or any other forecasting service) is very accurate at all more than a week out. They all use the same computer models to make their forecasts, and the models don't project specific events very well beyond 7 days or so (and have much better accuracy within 5 days). As of now, whatever it said for 4/25 is now 100% sun and warm. BUT they are calling for rain on May 2nd! Which I'll wager a whole lot of my money on not happening.

[kevinweitzel75]

Yea, have to agree. Anything they post that's longer than 4 days out, changes every day. Except when I have plans.

[Jim]

Just when I thought it was June and the weather was turning to Awesome, yet another irritating late season trough is forecast to affect the region Thursday. I had planned to drive home on 191 and enjoy the awesome Arizona views of the Coronado Trail, but if it is going to be overcast or mostly cloudy and potentially stormy, I likely won't do that. I was looking forward to avoiding Phoenix traffic and Flagstaff all together. Oh well.

The storm looks like it might be good for southern California as well as the southern and central Sierra, but will be dry to a blowing nuisance for AZ. It will probably just be blowing dust that will bury the broccoli and lettuce seedling I planted last week before I left.

La Nina seems to be dying, and the recent forecast calls for a neutral phase, no El Nino. Wonder how that will play out for Monsoon Season? Too early for winter 2013, but I suspect southern Arizona could use a normal one, instead of these dry winters.