Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Forecast for you folks in northern Arizona is for snow levels down to near 5000 feet. First real winter storm of the season to affect AZ?
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/split_prod. ... &version=0

I am hoping to hike Sierra Blanca (likely off trail due to a fire area closure from the "Little Bear" fire this past June) on Friday. I hope for good weather, but I wonder when we will get some rain or snow down in New Mexico's Sacramento Mountains?

So much for having yard sale #7 next Sat. Well, who knows, it could turn out okay. It's nice here today, but chilly.

[cactuscat]

Forecast for you folks in northern Arizona is for snow levels down to near 5000 feet. First real winter storm of the season to affect AZ?

Oh boy. Bring it!

[chumley]

Seems like it's going to be cold, but lacking significant moisture. It could certainly complicate planned haz events in the supes and anybody crazy enough to go off-trail hiking in a snow-covered grand canyon.

[Dschur]

Now it is down to 4000 ft. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

[Jim]

Had a brief heavy shower here. Some nice rainbows, and the high front range peaks were blocked by the rain. I hope that keeps the dust down on the trail, but Marble Canyon is still good.

[Jim]

Looks like the low in Flagstaff was 9 this morning, and the webcam on the bird feeder in Fort Valley reads 11.5 degrees. Pretty cold for early November.

[cactuscat]

4 degrees when i got up this morning...

[big_load]

@Jim_H I often visit Flagstaff right around Thanksgiving, and although it's rarely that cold, it's usually cold enough.

[Jim]

Believe it or not, I do miss a few things about Flag, but cold is not one of them. It is cold here, and I'm dreaming of lower elevation.

[Jim]

It's been dry, for the most part lately. I see AZ Snowbowl intends to make snow and open by 12/25, but I would like to know when AZ will see it's first winter storm of heavy precipitation? Also, I am curious when the plateau mountains here will see snow of any consequence. Unless it is going to be a bad winter, most places usually have had a healthy rain and snow accumulation by a month from now.

[big_load]

The weather seems wrong to me. Has it been about 10 degrees above average in Phoenix for the last couple weeks?

[beterarcher]

Yup, 80 degrees or so. Last week it was like 85.

[Jim]

It's been cooler than my preference, but it is almost December and I'm at 4,400'. I think the SW is forecast to be above normal on temps the next 3 months.

[azbackpackr]

While I am enjoying the warm weather here in the White Mtns. it worries me as to what will happen over the winter/spring, because it really does affect fire season in May and June.

[Jim]

Too soon to tell. I have seen people from SP, 14ers, and I guess here, lament the warm dry weather, but it is only late November. Flagstaff has had rain and snow this month, just a little below normal. September and October were very dry, though. They could have a decent winter, as could most of the west. It is still very early, the Sierra Snowpack graph isn't even operational yet. If it is like this in January we have big problems. Time will tell. I suppose, since I have no firm plans to snowshoe any peaks or alpine areas in Colorado, it almost doesn't matter what the winter is like. Still.

As you already know, we were originally being forecast to develop a weak El Nino, but that has since ceased to form and we have settled into a neutral phase. The last neutral I witnessed was 2008-2009, and that was a half decent winter for us. Ooop, I mean AZ. However, it got cool and rainy in May and June, which was odd, but that was due to a developing El Nino and we then had a very dry summer. So, who knows? Even if above normal and warm, we could have decent precipitation. I would like warmer and wetter.

[chumley]

So, who knows?

Question of the day.
(year/decade/century?)

[big_load]

So, who knows?

Question of the day.
(year/decade/century?)

Perhaps nobody knows, but failure to speculate about the weather seems like a warning sign.

[Jim]

I'll speculate that the big storm series coming into northern California is a bit too far north, and if it was a few hundred miles south, Arizona might be getting a decent soaking.


Just imagine all that, down in Arizona. You pretty much have to, as it isn't coming in down by LA.

[azbackpackr]

Not yet, anyway. It's really a bit too dry around here. However, I'm enjoying it.

[chumley]

It has been dry so far. Except for Hippy Hazfest at Reavis . The past 3 years when I've gone Christmas Tree cutting there was already snow on the rim. Not so this year.

But I'm happy to see a good dumping of snow over the Sierra too.