Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Remembering the past helps us understand the future. We have too short a memory in this country and jump to conclusions about the future far too quickly.

All this just makes me wonder why you picked nursing, instead of meteorology. I know, I know, there were lots of jobs back when you started school.

Meanwhile I am in Tucson, which is as close a place that feels like "home" to me as anywhere on the planet. I am at one of those fancy houses off Sweetwater Road on the west side, with big picture windows facing east. I can see the Catalinas, Redington Pass, and the Rincons, and it appears that from my angle on this very clear February morning, the sun is going to rise just about over the top of Agua Caliente Hill. Edit: Hmmm, maybe more over Mica Mountain.

[Jim]

I should have been a TV Weatherman. I have the personality for it, for sure!

[Jim]

http://www.ksby.com/news/submerged-fore ... a-drought/
I've seen that article thrown around before, but it is interesting that it suggests even in recent prehistory, there is nothing new about the low snow pack, just the numbers of farms that we attempt to irrigate using it's runoff. I do like my apricots, peaches, blueberries, and strawberries, though.

Actually, I just thought that was an interesting article, as a couple of dry winters are very normal. I'm really just wondering about the G.B. track vs the off the coast track.

[outdoor_lover]

I, for one, am looking forward to Monsoon Season again. Especially after seeing this..... http://backcountrypost.com/forum/index. ... em.1580%2F

Amazing footage and it really makes me want to go "Storm Chasing"..... The Big Ditch is in here a couple of times and Hell's Hole Canyon looks incredible.....

[Jim]

Monsoon season!? Oh, let us at least enjoy the best season in Arizona before we head into the humid times. By late June I should be ready for that, provided it hasn't already started over here.

[Dschur]

We have watched the monsoon for number of years (being into Astronomy has that effect on you) and have noticed the start of the monsoon is in Tx in May/June.. moves across to NM before getting to AZ in Julyish. and then back again as it leaves AZ. There is a star party in TX in May that almost always gets rain and they still do it the same time.

[Jim]

I was in the Chisos Basin CG in early May of 2004 and had a cold hail storm at 2 PM or so. Cold over night and then the next morning docile Javelina came through eating yucca. Out to the Window with water running down and out. The next night I watched a nice lightning storm over the same mountains, or to the west of them, from over by the eastern end of the paved road in the park.

[PatrickL]

Oh, Chisos Basin, how I miss you so.

[cactuscat]

It was sunny and relatively warm today (40's) ... and all the talk among locals has turned to the coming Spring - we are definitely ready for it here!

[Jim]

I know I'm looking forward to Spring and warmer temps. Who would think this place could be so cold? Singles digits, highs in the 30s, and wind, you might think it was Flagstaff. Not really, as there are some palms here, but Sedona, at least.

March is a change month, so hopefully by months end it will be warm, the below freezing lows will cease, and it will start to resemble the brochure.

I don't expect southern NM will get any precipitation this March, but Arizona might get a little more. I know Liz has been saying how much she wants more snow, ice, and cold wind. She practically thrives on that stuff.

[azbackpackr]

I arrived home from my four-day trip to Tucson to find 5 inches of snow in my front yard, which faces north. A lot of the snow had melted where sun was hitting the ground, but it stays all winter in my yard. I had to use the snow shovel, and hurt my back and had to spend $35 at the chiropractor an hour later. It still hurts, but is better than it was.

I am going to try to ENJOY the snow this week by doing some cross country skiing, though. That actually is fun, I have to admit.

[Jim]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=twcCould be a big storm, or nothing at all. Let the speculation begin!

I say a 10 foot snow storm for the mountains in southern California, 2 inches of rain in Phoenix, 8 feet of snow on Mount Lemmon, and 6 feet of snow on the Peaks. Maybe a dud with nothing more than wind.

[chumley]

Bring it!

[Jim]

Well, one of the NWS discussions I was reading said this low would follow the pattern of the winter and was going to be a Great Basin tracking low, so it isn't going to be vrey good for CA, and the moisture might be lacking, so not too wet for AZ, either. A more modest low.

[Jim]

A COLD LATE SEASON STORM...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
COLD AS THE LAST STORM. EVEN IF IT ISN`T QUITE AS EFFICIENT AS USING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CURRENT TRAJECTORIES AND TIMING SHOULD GIVE IT
AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
FIELDS...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES
RANGING FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN VALLEYS TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 3800 TO 4000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6 TO 14 INCH RANGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 4500 FEET IN PLACES LIKE
ORACLE AND BISBEE. AGAIN...PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES WITH SOME TIMING
ISSUES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

I guess 5 days out it is still too early to know as they have gone a little stronger with this one. I have a trip planned from the 13th to the 19th, and hope for near 80 degree weather, or warmer, so hopefully this is the last storm for a while or the season. I suppose a storm at the end of the month or in early April would be welcome. Anyway, this could be the "March Miracle", and it might be a fairly powerful low. One thing is for sure, Ski the Lemmon hasn't had a season this good since 2010. Makes me wonder if I will have to contend with snow at the higher elevations of my planned Pusch Ridge hikes?

[chumley]

In my recollection, these spring storms tend to be "one-offs" whereas the December-January storms are often in a pattern that lasts for a week or two. I'd be surprised if this one doesn't clear out with perfect weather, sunny, warm, and wildflowers by the time you get here. (And snow up on the mountain )

[Jim]

It will probably move out by the time I arrive. My guess is that there won't be the flowers I had hoped for in the canyons, and there may be snow on Kimball and on the north side of the ridge where the last parts of the Finger Rock Trail runs. If the totals pan out, that is OK, so long as it is nice while I am there. It has always been dry while I've been in Tucson in spring, it might be nice to see it after a wet period. I will probably miss the flowers this spring, if I come a little too early and don't return until mid-April when they are done. However, a deep snow layer validates my choice to skip terrain over the lower 7,000' range (Kimball or the Window area).

[azbackpackr]

I was in the canyons last week, specifically to 7 falls and Sweetwater Trail, and there were NO flowers.

[Jim]

Late February is still early. Mid-march might be this year unless this weeks warm up gets them growing before the rain and snow stop them, hopefully to resume by the middle of the month and start blooming while I am around to enjoy them. Anyone have an indication of when the citrus trees will start flowering? Man, they smell really nice.

If I read the Flagstaff and Tucson NWS discussion correctly, the models are coming into agreement, and while this looks like it will be a mediocre California storm, it will tap into some subtropical moisture and be a very good one for Arizona. Tucson forecasts up to 1.2 inches of precipitation for the mountains. Flagstaff mentions the low getting cut off and slowing down over AZ, which would be great for totals. Albuquerque mentions this storm as mostly a rain maker, which is probably better, but El Paso is concerned with snow melt in the Gila leading to river flooding. I was surprised there was a snow pack in the Gila to melt. It must be nice.

Either way, in 5 days there ought to be one last good wet winter storm for the area. Well, except for the Trans-Pecos of Texas and south central/ southeast New Mexico. I would be shocked if Alamo even saw rain over 1/10 of an inch, and 1/10 of an inch is being optimistic. 1/4 would practically be a deluge!

[chumley]

One of these days I think I want to meet one of these agreeable weather models. Is there an online dating site for them?